Does the EU have a dance partner: The successful continuation of the path to the EU depends on the improvement of the political situation

The goal of Montenegro must be not to slow down the pace of negotiations with the European Union (EU) this year, which means that the political conditions, which worsened at the end of the previous month, would have to stabilize.

This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", commenting on the challenges facing Montenegro this year.

"The Government's plan to close all negotiation chapters by 2026 is more than ambitious. Even now, it seems completely unrealistic, if, first of all, the political conditions do not stabilize", the Director for Strategy and Communications at the Center for Civic Education (CGO) told "Vijesti" Zvezdana Kovac.

Only a day after the closing of three chapters in Brussels, Montenegro entered another political crisis.

"The government and the opposition clashed over the retirement of the judge of the Constitutional Court, which led us not only into another political crisis, but also made the Constitutional Court dysfunctional again. These days it is proving true that 'Montenegro institutions are fragile and vulnerable to political crises and potential institutional blockages', as noted in the regular annual report of the European Commission for Montenegro", says Kovač.

After the Constitutional Committee of the Assembly on December 17 stated the termination of the function of a judge of the Constitutional Court Dragan Đuranović due to the fulfillment of the conditions for the old-age pension, and the Assembly confirmed it, the opposition parties expressed their dissatisfaction, calling that act a "constitutional coup" and demanding the immediate annulment of that decision. Since then, the opposition has boycotted the sessions of the Assembly and its working bodies.

Kovač: Political circumstances are only getting more complicated

"With the de facto blockade of the Constitutional Court on many important issues, the blockade of the work of the Assembly, the possible non-adoption of numerous and important laws, the open and hidden interference of Serbia in the internal affairs of Montenegro, the political situation is only getting more complicated", Kovač assessed.

She pointed out that in addition to all that, or precisely because of that, there is a lack of more intensive reforms and more effective coordination of all institutions involved in the process of European integration:

"Well, Montenegro can hardly show that it has the capacity to implement legislation harmonized with EU standards, and apart from rhetorical and verbal acrobatics that Montenegro is committed to European integration, we do not have any concrete confirmation around which we can build optimism."

At the intergovernmental conference in December, Montenegro closed three chapters (7 - Intellectual property, 10 - Information society and media, 20 - Industrial policy and entrepreneurship), while Croatia blocked chapter 31 (Foreign, security and defense policy)...

Ćerimagić: A challenge to nationalist agendas

Analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI) Adnan Ćerimagić he told "Vijesti" that it is positive that the closing of chapters has begun, but that the fact that one of the four planned chapters has not been closed should be taken seriously:

"The goal now must be that this does not slow down the overall pace of negotiations. This requires a quick resolution of the political reasons behind this delay, first of all in Podgorica, but also in Brussels".

Ćerimagić assessed that Montenegro's plan to close all negotiation chapters by 2026 is ambitious, but achievable with the commitment of the authorities, support of the EU and member states.

"Montenegro is currently the most prepared candidate for EU membership, but there is still a lot of work ahead. The key factors are political and institutional determination, along with technical and financial support".

Ćerimagić emphasized that the failure to close one chapter, despite the positive recommendation of the European Commission, shows that the revisionist and nationalist agendas in Montenegro are already a challenge to its EU path because they are encountering resistance in the EU.

"The experience of female candidates who successfully went through the accession process in the past showed that the absence of political determination, but also technical and financial support for the adoption and implementation of EU legislation can significantly slow down the process".

Kovač pointed out that the closing of three chapters formally represents progress in the negotiations, especially since Montenegro closed the last chapter seven years ago:

"We should not ignore the accession to SEPA and the adoption of the Reform Agenda, which unlocks the financial support of the EU, which, admittedly, goes in installments and each subsequent one depends on fulfilling the obligations outlined in the plan."

She pointed out that it is important to remind that the chapters are actually closed temporarily, that is, it is final only when the negotiations are finished in their entirety, which means that there must be no regression in the chapters that have been closed so far, so that they are not opened again.

She pointed out that, essentially, the dynamics of the negotiations are far from ideal, especially considering the circumstances and the position of Montenegro in the negotiation process, along with the strong political dimension of this process, which has been emphasized for the last year.

"Not so long ago, minister (Convert) Gorcevic announced that we would close 10 chapters, and then there were almost certain four that were talked about until the intergovernmental conference itself, in order to end the year with the closure of three chapters. Croatia, as expected, blocked the closing of Chapter 31".

Kovač pointed out that it should be emphasized that Croatia's arguments for this blocking were strong, because they seem to have forgotten that good neighborly relations are an important part of Chapter 31, and the authorities in Montenegro are fundamentally spoiling relations with their neighbors, in addition to being servile and not equal partnership with neighboring Serbia.

In the last year, relations with Croatia have deteriorated due to several issues. Among other things, the ownership of the ship "Jadran" and the board at the former camp "Morinj" in Kotor, but the biggest "cooling off" happened this summer, when the Montenegrin parliament adopted a resolution on the genocide in the Jasenovac camp, which Zagreb strongly resented.

Undoubted support of the EU

Speaking about the support that Montenegro receives from the EU and member states for its integration path, Ćerimagić emphasized that among the EU member states, they have always responded positively to requests for support that came from Montenegro.

"In support of this, they usually cite a whole series of projects that have been implemented or are being implemented in Montenegro. The need for any additional political, technical and financial support, and in order to achieve the ambitious goals, therefore, Montenegro itself must articulate".

Kovač assessed that the support that Montenegro receives from the EU and member states is unquestionable at this moment. She pointed out that all the statements of European officials indicate that the EU wants Montenegro in its society and that it is ready to provide all the necessary assistance.

"However, there are also statements that say that there is full awareness of the fact that there are noticeable discrepancies between the rhetoric of Montenegrin officials and the actual (in)action. We have already forgotten that just a month or two ago, there was talk that the European Council would prepare a draft accession agreement for this intergovernmental conference. That did not happen and instead we now have statements like 'The Council is ready to start preparations for the drafting of the accession agreement in a timely manner'".

She pointed out that this draft agreement would not mean that the matter is over and that the path to joining the EU would be completely open, but since the preparation of this draft is a matter of good organization so that each next step goes without a hitch, it would mean that Montenegro has taken an important step towards its goal.

Kovač assessed that representatives of the ruling majority do not seem to understand how great an opportunity Montenegro currently has, and that "she is not sure how aware they are that there has never been a greater opportunity for Montenegro since the opening of negotiations and that, at this moment, everything really depends only on from us”.

"It takes two to dance the tango, which means that the European integration of Montenegro depends on the real progress of the country and the determination of the EU to accept new members. At the moment, only the EU is dancing for now".

She pointed out that the big question is whether the geopolitical opportunities and this kind of ambition and encouragement coming from the EU will exist when the time comes to sign the accession and ratification agreement.

"It should be kept in mind that all 27 member states should give their consent and that in addition to what is the general interest of the EU, the internal conditions of each country and their public opinion will be much more important. Without national unity and political actors in Montenegro focused on the goal, there will be no basis for that public opinion to be positive".

( Željka Vučinić )