Scientists have found a way to predict cholera outbreaks from space, using a combination of climate change monitoring satellites and artificial intelligence.
Researchers hope it will eventually save lives in overpopulated areas.
"It's quite impressive, because we can measure the pulse of our planet," says Doctor Paolo Cipolini of the European Space Agency (ESA).
"You wouldn't think that space and satellites could help with health problems, but it's an endeavor that's getting more and more accepted."
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The study shows that cholera epidemics in the coastal regions of India can be predicted with an 89 percent success rate.
Teams from ESA and Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) have spent eight years collecting existing satellite data on the environment and, with the help of artificial intelligence, created a model that predicts where cholera is most likely to spread.
Cholera is a waterborne disease that occurs when you eat food or drink water contaminated with bacteria Vibrio cholera.
It can be found in coastal regions of the world, especially in densely populated tropical regions.
About half of cholera cases originate from countries bordering the northern Indian Ocean, such as India, where the research was focused.
Monitoring changes in water
They used seven different types of measurements from several space satellites to arrive at their predictions.
The scientists looked for changes in the warm salt water, in which the bacteria thrive, as well as an increase in the number of plankton that the bacteria can attach to.
They also measured factors such as heat waves, places where people enjoy drinking water on vacation, or rainfall, which can mix contaminated and uncontaminated water.
"What makes our study unique is that we used so many different variables," says researcher Amy Campbell, who collaborated with ESA and PML to develop the prediction model.
"One of the variables, water salinity, is completely new and very helpful for predicting cholera epidemics."
"Ideally, if we can use it to understand when cholera epidemics are going to break out, we can make sure that measures are in place in advance, and you can mitigate it with a vaccination program in certain areas and contain it."
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More outbreaks
Scientists say climate change and extreme weather are causing more cholera outbreaks.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are up to four million cases of cholera every year, and up to 143.000 people die from this infectious disease.
And while many people have mild symptoms, it can cause a severe case of diarrhea and kill you within hours if left untreated.
"It is often children who are most vulnerable to water-related diseases, especially those under the age of five.
"And that's why we hope that the use and improvement of the cholera outbreak prediction system will reduce the risk for children who could be exposed to this disease," says Dr. Marie-Fenny Rako, senior scientist at PML.
Scientists have found that predictions are most reliable just before the summer monsoon season, with an accuracy rate of 93,3 percent.
But they say improvements must be made to increase reliability and ensure services are not shut down unnecessarily.
"There may be socio-economic factors confounding our results a bit," says Amy Campbell.
"Areas without adequate drainage may experience an increase in cholera cases unrelated to climate change."
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The economic consequences of other diseases such as Kovid-19 have taught governments how important it is to accurately predict the occurrence of diseases.
This program to predict cholera from space has not yet been tested in areas other than India, but scientists hope it will be a good starting point for improving predictions, potentially saving lives in the future.
"We see the use of Earth observation being used more and more for the benefit of society, including the spread of disease and the impact of climate change on disease," says Dr. Paolo Cipolini.
“It's important because of who it's going to protect; it allows us to do something that will benefit the poorest population."
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