Five years on from Brexit: Is the UK looking better?

Today, the Conservatives are a party that is open to Brexit, and Labour, although less keen, is certainly not in favor of returning to the EU.

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Illustration, Photo: Getty Images
Illustration, Photo: Getty Images
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

In the early hours of June 24, 2016, a senior Conservative Party politician described the surprise result of the vote to leave the European Union (EU) as a revolutionary moment in British politics.

It's easy to see why.

Before the referendum, EU membership had been a focal point of British politics for more than 40 years.

It was a cornerstone of domestic and foreign policy, and membership in the bloc was accepted and not considered controversial by both major political parties.

Today, the Conservatives are a party that is open to Brexit, and Labour, although less keen, is certainly not in favor of returning to the EU.

Of course, as with all other revolutions, the assessment of its successes or failures will be made by historians and ordinary people many years from now.

But five years later, what can we say for now?

Public opinion

Brexit has divided people more fiercely than at any time since the brief English Civil War in the 17th century.

That's not too surprising, since the referendum itself and the friction since then have raised the deepest questions about how people feel about Britain's identity and place in the world.

Have they prospered or been harmed in the globalized economy, and whether they feel comfortable in a Britain that has become more multi-ethnic and multi-racial.

Five years on, polls show the country remains more divided than ever over Brexit, although this may be less vociferous or obvious after a trade deal is reached and Britain's final phase of exit at the end of 2020.

A poll by the respected National Center for Public Research (NatCen) shows that 82 per cent of people would vote exactly the same again and the country remains evenly split on whether in hindsight it was a good or bad move.

And if a referendum on re-entry into the EU were to take place, polls also suggest the result would be as tight as in 2016.

Where public opinion goes from here will obviously depend on what happens next and whether the main opposition Labor Party chooses to base its campaign on Brexit issues or remain silent for fear of alienating working-class Brexit voters.

Political realignment

And so we arrive smoothly at the revolution in British politics caused by Brexit.

Roughly speaking, it has led to a major realignment, with people now voting on issues of identity and culture, not just economics.

Although somewhat of a gross oversimplification, it used to be that the poorer and less educated you were, the more likely you were to vote for the left and Labour.

Now that has largely reversed, as it was those voters who largely supported Brexit.

This means that the deindustrialized poorer parts of northern England voted Conservative for the first time in many decades, sometimes even for the first time in history.

And in some of the progressive parts of the south with a high percentage of Remain voters, the current Conservative MPs got a little nervous.

Once again, whether this realignment is permanent will depend on what comes next, which brings me back to my point that future historians - not journalists - will have to judge this.

State of the Nation

The most serious consequence of Brexit is probably its potential impact on the very survival of the United Kingdom.

In Scotland, where 62 percent of people voted to remain in the EU, the Scottish National Party, which stands for independence and for the EU, sees Brexit as justification for holding another referendum on independence from Great Britain.

Although current polls show that any vote would be close, if that referendum ever takes place, it is not difficult to conclude that it was Brexit that revived the whole issue of Scottish independence.

In Northern Ireland, Brexit has destabilized its already divisive politics.

Simply put, Boris Johnson's decision to leave the EU's single market and customs union - the so-called hard Brexit - meant that the regulatory border had to be set somewhere between the UK and the EU.

A history of violence meant that no such border could be found between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Instead, it was placed in the Irish Sea, effectively blocking trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain.

In what some might consider the ultimate irony, since in 2016 Protestants were much more likely to vote to leave the EU than Catholics, now the unionist community is furious at trade deals that make them feel less British.

At the moment, these agreements are the source of major and worrying tensions not only in Northern Ireland, but also between the UK and the EU, potentially further damaging post-Brexit relations between London and Brussels.


Watch the video about the Balkan diaspora and Brexit


The economics of Brexit

Most of the arguments during and after the referendum naturally revolved around how economically wise it is to leave the EU, and especially about its single market and customs union.

Since the UK only really left the EU at the end of 2020 with a limited trade deal - limited because it only covered goods but not services - it is difficult to assess its value impact.

The government's official figures so far certainly suggest a sharp drop in trade with the EU in the first three months of 2021 of 23,1 percent compared to the same period in 2018.

It is difficult to say how long that decline will be and how much it has to do with the pandemic.

Although, a recent business survey by the official Office for National Statistics suggests that Brexit is currently more of a cause for concern for companies trading with Europe than Covid.

And as for Britain's famous financial services sector (which is not covered by the trade deal), although analysis by consultancy firm EY shows it is still the largest in Europe, Britain now accounts for one pound in every five spent on global financial services.

In contrast, in 2019, when one out of every four pounds went to Britain, it is clear that this is a big drop.

What next?

Getty Images

It is now clear that Brexit will be a process, not an event - something that both the Remain and Leave campaigns wrongly suggested in the referendum.

Where that process goes from this point depends on leaders in London and across the EU.

And one final thought.

Fierce divisions over Brexit have naturally meant that the focus of Britain as a country has turned inwards.

Both camps are largely equally oblivious to the price Great Britain has had to pay in the last five years for its position in the world.

Fairly or unfairly, Brexit is seen among Britain's allies and enemies around the world as a strategic mistake, a perception with consequences that are, again, difficult to predict.

Whether it was a mistake, a new opportunity or something else entirely, only historians will be able to say, and it is unlikely that even they will agree on it.


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