The war in Ukraine threatens to end decades of cooperation between Russia and the West on space exploration projects.
The consequences are already being felt in the launches of interplanetary probes and satellites, but nothing symbolizes this schism better than the International Space Station (ISS).
The station was purposely built from independent US and Russian modules - meaning they needed each other for the station to grow - and since 2000 has been run with the help of substantial donations from both the US and Russia.
But she became the subject of a war of words on social media starring the head of the Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos) Dmitry Rogozin.
In a series of posts from February 25th, Rogozin made thirty claims, the most dramatic of which is that sanctions against Russia could cause the MSS to fall to Earth.
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The controversy over the MSS
Russia controls key aspects of the station's propulsion system, including the one that prevents the structure from being pulled into our planet's atmosphere.
Rogozin (also a former vice president of the Russian government) further insinuated that the Russian cosmonauts could leave the MSS, leaving behind American astronaut Mark Vande Haj, who spent almost a year on the station - namely, almost all flights to and from the station are operated by Russian rockets .
Roskosmos, however, distanced itself from Rogozin's statements.
"Roskosmos has never given reason to doubt its reliability as a partner," the agency said in a March 15 statement.
Four days later, three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the station.
As for Vande Haj, the American will hitch a ride back with two of his Russian colleagues who are returning home on March 30.
The current MCC agreement guarantees operation until 2024, but America is seeking an extension until 2030.
Russia - or rather Rogozin - suggested last December that it was not interested in remaining a partner after 2024.
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Dissolved partnerships
Several agreements by Moscow and its equivalents such as the European Space Agency (ESA) have been frozen or canceled since the start of the war, most prominently the launch of Europe's Mars rover, which was supposed to take off with the help of a Russian rocket.
The project has now been canceled indefinitely by ESA.
"As an intergovernmental organization tasked with developing and implementing space programs in full compliance with European values, we deeply condemn the human sacrifices and tragic consequences of the aggression against Ukraine," ESA stated in a March 17 statement.
"While acknowledging the impact this will have on scientific space exploration, ESA fully supports the sanctions imposed on Russia by its member states."
Russia responded by withdrawing from an agreement with ESA on joint launch operations from the Kourou Cosmodrome in French Guiana.
The partnership has resulted in 2011 European satellites being launched into orbit by Russian Soyuz rockets since 26 - one of those launches last December carried the legendary James Webb Space Telescope.
And finally, on February 26, Roscosmos announced that it is ending NASA's participation in the Venus D mission, which involves the launch of an orbiter and a lander to Venus in 2029.
"Let them fly on their brooms"
Moscow has also announced that it will stop sending rocket engines to US companies.
"Let them fly on their brooms," Rogozin told state-run Russia news channel Russia 24 earlier this month.
In the most recent public statement regarding the Ukraine crisis, the US space agency NASA played down the importance of Rogozin's position.
"Other people working in the Russian civilian space program are professionals. They did not for a second stop cooperating with us, the American astronauts, and American mission control," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told the Associated Press on March 18.
Indeed, the Americans and Russians have cooperated on space missions for decades, despite the Cold War.
After the space race of the fifties and sixties, which was symbolically won by Washington with the moon landings in 1969, the representatives of the two countries literally shook hands in space in 1975, as part of the joint Apollo-Soyuz mission.
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Russian ride sharing
The partnership became extremely useful for NASA after the retirement of the space shuttle program: between 2011 and 2020, Russian rockets were the only way for American and many other foreign astronauts to reach space.
And even though SpaceX, a company owned by American billionaire Elon Musk, began transporting astronauts to the International Space Station in 2020, it hasn't really changed that situation.
Many US operations still depend on Russian rocket engines - although NASA is currently building a new rocket, the Vulkan, which will use engines made by US company Blue Origin.
The tension between Russia and its Western partners began to emerge even before the invasion of Ukraine.
Dr. Bledin Bouve, an expert on space policy at the UK's University of Leicester, explains that relations began to deteriorate after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
"It was a change of direction, because then Russia started doing things that were previously unthinkable for European countries," says Dr. Bouve.
Although the expert is not surprised by Moscow's retaliation, he points out that Russia has more to lose in the long run when it comes to space policy.
"Russia has been a declining space power for some time because it has failed to modernize key parts of its own space industry," Dr. Bowe points out.
"It depends on importing computer technology not only from the West, but also from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan."
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Partnership with China
Now that the Russian economy has been hit by unprecedented sanctions, the space program will most likely suffer a lot of damage.
Rocket launches are a valuable source of cash for Roscosmos - a single trip by a Russian manned flight cost NASA more than $2020 million in 90.
Space analysts believe that the breakdown caused by the Ukrainian conflict will strengthen Moscow's desire to seek space partnerships in the East: Russia has already announced a number of plans for joint missions with China in 2021, including the construction of a base on the moon.
Over the past few years, China has become an increasingly powerful space power with ambitions to rival the US and Europe - Beijing, for example, expects to have its own Tiangong space station fully operational by the end of this year.
China is not part of the International Space Station consortium of countries and was officially barred from sending astronauts there after 2011, when the US Congress passed a law banning US contact with China's space program - a decision motivated by "national security concerns".
But the impact of a slew of sanctions imposed on the Russian economy could limit Moscow's role in that partnership.
"China has a much more massive space program than Russia," says Professor John Logdson, an American expert on space policy.
"Russia needs China, not the other way around"
NASA's 2022 budget, for example, is $24 billion, almost ten times that of Roscosmos, according to figures released by the Russian parliament last October.
China's space budget, which is not available to the public, is estimated in 2020 at about nine billion dollars.
That investment gap, Logdson believes, could dictate a future in which Russia is reduced to a minority role in space exploration.
"The Russian space program has been in a losing position for some time," says this professor.
"It is very likely that he will become isolated unless China really embraces him."
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