US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan has angered China and left the White House with a serious geopolitical headache.
China has warned of "serious consequences" if Pelosi visits the self-governing territory Beijing sees as its own.
Pelosi would be the most senior US politician to travel to Taiwan since 1997.
Reportedly, even the administration of US President Joseph Biden tried to dissuade Pelosi, a member of the Democratic Party from California, from this idea.
Last week, Biden told reporters that "the military doesn't think the Pelosi visit is a good idea," but his White House called China's rhetoric against any such trip "clearly unhelpful and unnecessary."
The State Department says Pelosi has not announced any travel and that US access to Taiwan remains unchanged.
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province - Taiwan separated from mainland China in 1949, when the Communists took over.
China has previously warned Taiwan that its bid to become an independent state "would mean war" and does not rule out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its rule.
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While the US maintains what it calls “a solid unofficial relationship" with Taiwan, they have formal diplomatic ties with China, not Taiwan.
A possible visit by Pelosi to Taiwan would come amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing and on the eve of the long-awaited telephone conversation between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Why would Pelosi want to visit Taiwan?
In the US Congress, there is strong support for Taiwan.
During her 35-year congressional career, House Speaker Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China.
She condemned its human rights record and met with opposition Chinese politicians and dissidents.
Pelosi's original plan was to visit Taiwan in April, but it was postponed because she tested positive for the coronavirus.
She declined to discuss details of the trip, but said last week that "it is important for us to show support for Taiwan."
28 years ago, we traveled to Tiananmen Square to honor the courage & sacrifice of the students, workers & ordinary citizens who stood for the dignity & human rights that all people deserve. To this day, we remain committed to sharing their story with the world. #Tiananmen30 pic.twitter.com/7UqiJVRS3t
- Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) June 4, 2019
Why is China opposed to the visit?
Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory and has repeatedly said it is ready to annex it by force if necessary.
Chinese officials have expressed anger at what they see as increased diplomatic engagement between Taiwan and Washington.
By that, they also meant the surprise visit to the island by six American representatives in April.
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On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warned that his country would take "firm and decisive measures" if Pelosi came to Taiwan.
"And the US will be responsible for any serious consequences," he said.
A spokesman for China's Ministry of Defense appeared to suggest that there might even be a military response.
"If the US side insists on this, the Chinese military will not sit idle and will take strong measures to thwart any external interference and separatist attempts for 'Taiwan independence,'" Colonel Tan Kefei told China Daily.
China-Taiwan Relations - Basic Details:
- Why do China and Taiwan have bad relations? China and Taiwan split during a civil war in the 1940s, but Beijing insists the island will be returned at some point, by force if necessary.
- Who governs Taiwan? The island has a constitution, democratically elected leaders and about 300.000 active soldiers in the armed forces.
- Who recognizes Taiwan? Only a few countries recognize Taiwan. Most instead recognize the Chinese government in Beijing. The US has no official ties to Taiwan, but has a law requiring it to provide the island with defense resources
Mixed signals
Analysis by Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC News, Taiwan
If you're a small island nation with few allies, unrecognized by the United Nations and threatened with invasion by a much larger and more powerful neighbor, then a visit from the third most powerful politician in the United States should be something you welcome. Is not it?
That's why the Taiwanese government isn't about to tell US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to stay away.
Taiwanese authorities have long called for the involvement of higher levels of the US administration.
But there are also concerns about why Pelosi is coming now and whether her trip could do more harm than good.
Three times in the last year, President Joseph Biden said that the US would intervene to help Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, but then his interlocutors softened the statements, claiming that there is no change in US policy.
When news of Pelosi's trip to Taiwan leaked, Biden's response was not to support the idea, but to say, "The military doesn't think it's a good idea."
In Beijing, they see this as a weakness.
In Taiwan, they are confused. What exactly is the US government's policy towards the island?
Pelosi is 82 and is expected to retire in the fall.
Does she want to come with the clear intention of offering real support or is it a political stunt?
Everything is very vague.
How could the journey increase the number of fifths?
At the party congress later this year, the Chinese Communist Party is expected to re-elect Xi Jinping as president, which would be his third term in office.
Biden, who last spoke with the Chinese president in March, said the two would speak by phone again in the next few days on a variety of issues, including Taiwan.
The US and Chinese presidents are due to talk as US officials warn of a Chinese military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region and accuse Beijing of "aggressive and irresponsible behavior" in the South China Sea.
In Washington, they are worried about the possible response of China regarding the potential visit of Pelosi to Taiwan.
When then-US Health Secretary Alex Azar flew to Taiwan in 2020, China raised fighter jets that crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait — the narrow waterway between the island and its giant neighbor — within range of Taiwan's missiles.
Last week, Hu Xijin, a former editor of China's state-run Global Times newspaper, suggested that Pelosi's visit could provoke a "shocking military response" and believed that Chinese fighter jets would follow her aircraft as soon as it entered the island's airspace.
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