BiH: What do Denis Bećirović's victory and Bakir Izetbegović's defeat mean?

Denis Bećirović is the candidate of the united opposition for the Bosniak member of the BiH Presidency, where the constituent peoples of Bosnia - Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks - each have a representative.

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Photo: BBC
Photo: BBC
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

When Denis Bećirović appeared in front of the media for the first time in Sarajevo's Holiday Inn hotel on election night, he was accompanied by applause, flashes and clicking of cameras, but also by a song well known throughout the region - "Zemljo moja".

That country, Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose political system is unique in the whole world, has just gone through another very complicated general election.

However, there are some similarities with election games around the world - at the end of the day, some are winners and some are losers.

"Bećirović is the biggest winner of the election," Ivana Marić, a political analyst from Sarajevo, told the BBC in Serbian.

Denis Bećirović is the candidate of the united opposition for the Bosniak member of the BiH Presidency, where the constituent peoples of Bosnia - Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks - each have a representative.

In that race, he was better than Bakir Izetbegović, the leader of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), which has been in power in BiH almost continuously for the last 25 years, they show. preliminary data of the Central Election Commission.

According to these data, based on 85 percent of processed polling stations, Bećirović won 90.000 more votes than Izetbegović.

"A really big defeat for Izetbegović, who is also the biggest loser of the election," Marić believes.

Nevertheless, the preliminary results for now show that the SDA still won the most votes in the race for the BiH Parliament, where the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) also achieved a good result.

During that time, Zeljka Cvijanovic and Željko Komšić celebrated in the race for members of the Presidency from the ranks of Serbs and Croats, while the fight for the post of president of Republika Srpska - or president - is close.

Spears are breaking between Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and Jelena Trivić's Party of Democratic Progress (PDP).

Both claim that their candidate won and have already celebrated the results.

The morning after the election, from the Central Election Commission of BiH was announced that the preliminary results show that after 81 percent of the votes counted, Dodik is ahead with 30.000 more votes than Trivić.

According to data from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the turnout was around 50 percent.

But what do all these results actually mean for life in Bosnia, a country with 14 governments and 136 ministers, which is among the leading countries in the world in terms of people leaving?

"I wouldn't say that these elections have brought any great news, but I believe that they will primarily affect more relaxed relations within the BiH Presidency," says Slavo Kukić, an academician and professor at the Faculty of Economics in Mostar, for the BBC.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is divided into two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina - in which Bosniaks and Croats live as a majority - and the Republika Srpska, where the majority are Serbs.

That system is a product of the Dayton Agreement from 1995, which stopped the war in BiH after the collapse of the Federal Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).

Although the situation in the country is peaceful, three decades after the devastating war, political tensions have not subsided, nor has the social and economic crisis.

BBC

What do the changes in the BiH Presidency mean?

“Hey, honey, lead this one for 10.000 votes," says the blond woman in a worried voice over the phone at the SDA election headquarters, where the atmosphere was rather gloomy.

There are no songs and no party leaders.

The large room, bordered by the picture of Bakir Izetbegović and the flags of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is dominated by a television on which the results are displayed during the counting of votes.

And as time went on, Bećirović increasingly moved away from Izetbegović.

"This is the fall of the Izetbegović dynasty," says Marić.

"But Bećirović's victory should also be taken with a grain of salt... He received many votes that were actually only against Izetbegović."

Alija Izetbegović, Bakir Izetbegović's father, was a Bosniak leader during the bloody war of the nineties and one of the signatories of Dayton.

"This is the punishment of the voters for the inappropriate campaign of people from the SDA, who sent morbid messages and took it for granted that only they are patriots, and all those who are against them are not," believes Vehid Šehić from the coalition of non-governmental organizations "Under Scrutiny", which monitor the conduct of elections.

Marić says the same, adding that the citizens of BiH have shown that they "no longer fall for the story of the war", and that "in Izetbegović's campaign, everything revolved around that".

BBC

In addition to Bećirović, who before politics was a teacher in elementary and high school in his native Tuzla, the new name in the Presidency will be Željka Cvijanović, the former president of Republika Srpska and a senior official of the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).

Kukić sees this as the first reason for potentially easier relations within the Presidency.

"No matter how dependent she is on Milorad Dodik, it will be much simpler to talk to her about the interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state, than with Dodik," Kukić believes.

Dodik, the leader of the SNSD and former Serbian member of the Presidency, is known for his political appearances that have not changed over the years - mostly stories about the potential secession of the RS from BiH, which always causes a stormy reaction from Sarajevo.

Cvijanović also pointed out in her first address after the election that he will defend the "interests of Republika Srpska" in the Presidency.

The previous seat in the Presidency was defended by Željko Komšić, leader of the Democratic Front (DF) and representative of the Croatian people.

A few hours after the closing of the polls, he declared victory over Borjana Krišto, a high-ranking official of the HDZ BiH, so there was a lot of fun at the DF headquarters, with cake, champagne and music.

The hit "Tek je 12 sati" by the Zagreb band ET from the 1990s rang out from the speakers.

Preliminary data of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina confirm the advantage of Komšić.

Based on about 85 percent of processed polling stations, 53,61 percent of voters voted for Komšić, and 46,39 percent for Kristo.

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In his first address, Komšić talked about the "victory of civic Bosnia", saying that for the first time in history the Presidency has "two members from parties that do not have a national identity".

Kukić also sees in this the reason for a potentially better situation in the Presidency.

"That detail is important to the ordinary world, which will now be able to see what it means to live in the conditions of a different policy, which starts from people's lives, not from ethnicity."

From that position, he says, there are some changes.

However, Marić is not so optimistic.

She believes that Komšić's party "principally does not have a national sign in its name", but that in practice it is "nationally charged and expressed".

Does this mean greater changes in Bosnia?

It does not have to mean, even that the situation in the Presidency will be different than before.

First of all, because the Presidency does not have great powers.

"The key is what will be the composition of the state parliament, and then also the ethnic parliaments - of the Federation and Republika Srpska," says Kukić.

"That's where decisions are made, they elect the executive and that's where the power is."

Because of this, Marić calls Bećirović's victory as an opposition candidate "symbolic".

"Nothing will change if the structure of government at the entity and state level is not changed," she repeats.

The final results of the elections in BiH will not be known for a few more days, while all the ballots are counted, and there are many of them - each voter received four.

In both entities, members of the BiH Presidency and delegates of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH were voted for.

Those living in the Federation elected members of the Parliament of the Federation, as well as the assembly of one of the 10 cantons into which the Federation is divided.

At that time, the Republika Srpska (RS) elected the president and vice-presidents of the RS, as well as the National Assembly of the RS.

Nevertheless, some things can already be said - SDA has again received the largest number of votes at the parliamentary level.

"The party is not on the decline, the party is on the rise." said Izetbegović in his first address.

A good result at the state level was achieved by Komšić's Democratic Front and HDZ, whose leader Dragan Čović stated that "without Croats, there is no politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina".

Post-election combinatorics is already starting there.

"If DF and HDZ form a government at the level of the Federation, and then together with the SNSD at the level of the entire country, everything will be as it has been until now," Marić believes.

"But if the opposition parties from the RS and the Federation form the government together with the HDZ... That would be a big change and it would really be felt".


Election day in Sarajevo

Slobodan Maričić, BBC journalist

"Are you glas'o", an older man in a light suit asks a much younger waiter of a cafe in Baščaršija, the main tourist area in the very center of Sarajevo.

That short and simple question could be heard all over the city, on a beautiful and warm day that, in addition to the election, ended with a Sting concert.

"I did, I did, I did it this morning," the waiter replied.

And the political analysis started.

"Well, they're all the same," the waiter finally concluded.

Some disappointment, but also a lot of hope, could be heard in front of the polling stations.

"From these elections, I expect that everything will be better," says Selma Bašagić.

"The same," added her daughter Dina.

"I don't know, in the conversation with people from my environment, I see that everyone took this more seriously," continued Selma and then went in to vote.

BBC

And voting was mostly done in pairs.

Tarik Džonglagić and his wife Senida came from Germany just for the election.

As they say, they were denied the right to vote abroad, so they traveled with their four small children for the weekend.

"All because of the desire to change the situation in the country," says Senida.

"Our families live here, we don't really have anyone in Germany... We are there temporarily, we plan to come back and live here at some point."

Voting, they say, is their contribution to a better future.

"When the state doesn't want us, we have to the state", emphasizes Senida.

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Not far from that polling station, a dozen people are gathered around a chess board so big that the fields are actually pavements and you can stand on it.

"The lady is gone, the lady is gone," shouts one fan from the sidelines.

"Let it go, what will I do," the player replies.

"Eat his horse now, what are you looking at," interjects a third voice.

Among the kibitzers is 63-year-old Esad, who did not vote either in this or in all previous elections since the war.

He never will, he points out.

"Everyone first looks at their own people and says 'I don't care, it's better that, if you apologize, one of mine, than someone else's - and that's how it is.

"Here, everyone is afraid of each other, so they put three presidents to change... What three presidents, painful? Why aren't there ten of them then, why only three?"

And how long?

As long as the foreigners don't interfere anymore, he answers.

"Whoever wins, everything will be the same, you'll see."


Election day in Banja Luka

Jovana Georgievski, BBC journalist

Crowds at the polling stations in Banja Luka already arose in the first hours after the opening of the polling stations at seven in the morning.

Neighborly conversations, crying babies and barking dogs have been murmuring in the courtyard of the "Petar Petrović Njegoš" elementary school in the Starčevica neighborhood since morning.

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Dozens of voters crowded the corridors, patiently waiting for their turn for about twenty minutes.

The people of Banja Luka are happy to talk to journalists, but most of them do not want to be photographed.

"I voted, like everyone in my family, and I think it should be a legal obligation of all citizens," says 62-year-old Boško Milojević.

The city's cafes are full of people enjoying the last sunny days of the year.

Among them is XNUMX-year-old Nikolina, who says she wasn't "excited at all" when she came of age this year and gained the right to vote.

"I'm not interested in the elections at all, I don't follow anything," he told the BBC in Serbian.

Some were thinking until the very end of the day whether to vote.

"I was thinking all day whether to go out or not, at my age I have nothing left to look forward to," said 82-year-old pensioner Ana.

"But I came out for my children."

Three days before the start of the election silence, Banjaluka was even shaking - two big concerts of famous pop artists were held.

On Friday evening, September 30, folk singers from Serbia Svetlana Ceca Ražnatović and Aleksandar Vuksanović, better known as Aca Lukas, performed in front of the Republika Srpska Government building.

Before the concert, a pre-election meeting of Milorad Dodik's SNSD was held.



From the stage that was prepared for the performance of pop musicians, in the last hours before the election silence, the departing member of the Presidency took the microphone.

"We are calmly waiting for Sunday and the announcement of the winner, because he is famous," said Dodik from the concert stage, and then went down to the VIP box, from where he followed the performances with his colleagues.

It was the second in a series of concerts that were held that week in the entity's largest city.

On Wednesday, September 28, the pop duo Ana Bekuta and Baja Mali Knindža performed.


What is the situation in Republika Srpska?

BBC

Uncertain.

"Who's driving?" is the first thing that interests Banja Luka taxi drivers when they think that they have reporters in their cars on election night.

Only after that they ask about the destination.

The answer came only on Monday morning - Dodik is in the lead, it was announced from the Central Election Commission after a little more than 81,91 percent of counted votes.

Preliminary results show that 48,80 percent of voters voted for him.

Trivić has about 30,000 votes less and 42,69 percent voted for her.

Less than half of the registered voters went to the elections - 41,88 percent.

The victory in the elections for the president of the Republika Srpska entity was announced by Trivić shortly after midnight, and Dodik the morning after the election.

"The double declaration of victory confused a large part of the citizens, and it also created mistrust, because it seemed that the parties had the results before the Central Election Commission, which announced more specific data only on Monday," says Tanja Topić, an analyst from Banja Luka, for the BBC on Serbian.

"This raises the question of whether there was election theft, malfeasance and how it will be dealt with," he adds.

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Tesan was the election headquarters of the opposition PDP for all who wanted to visit it during the counting of votes, so the gathered people rejoiced on the street when Trivić declared victory.

From the loudspeaker, which was placed in front of the door, the song "Pada vlada" by the Belgrade musician Momcilo Bajagić Bajaga blared several times.

"I think the PDP questioned its credibility when they celebrated their victory on the streets of Banja Luka before the announcement of the official results," Topić believes.

It was also cheerful in the election headquarters of the SNSD, where projections of Dodik's victory were met with great applause.

In a smoky room, with glasses of wine on the table, Dodik and Cvijanović rejoiced in each other's arms, they show recordings from the election headquarters.

However, he won declared at the press conference on Monday, after the announcement of the CEC.

"Whatever happens, Trivić achieved a significant result - she is a young woman, they are still a small party, and they had such a Dodik against them," says Marić.

From town to town, from village to village, the difference could be decided by a few thousand to just a few tens of votes.

In 2020, the PDP already defeated the SNSD in the local elections in Banja Luka, when the current mayor Draško Stanivuković was elected.

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Dozens of electoral irregularities have been reported throughout the RS, says the executive director of Transperensi International BiH, Ivana Korajlić, for the BBC in Serbian.

This organization is part of the global network Transperensi for the fight against corruption, and they represent one of the addresses in Bosnia and Herzegovina where citizens can report irregularities in the electoral process.

"Most of the reports were related to the violation of election silence, and citizens say they received text messages, in which they were told directly or indirectly who to vote for."

The elections in the RS took place with police protection.

A police vehicle was parked in front of almost every polling station in Banja Luka, near which a policeman was on duty. and, for the first time, there were also representatives of the BiH Prosecutor's Office on the field.

However, some of them got involved in the most different ways during the voting - what was revealed?

  • Shooting glasses

The voter, who is suspected of trying to vote with recording glasses, was exposed around 11 in the morning in East Ilidža, announced the MUP of the RS.

It is one of the municipalities of East Sarajevo, a city that borders the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but is administratively located in the RS entity.

  • Pen with camera

A little later, in the same municipality, the election commission reported that one voter, who allegedly used a pen with a camera when filling out the ballot.

  • Fake cop

In Bijeljina, citizens reported the driver of a white Golf, who asked for an identity card for inspection, posing as a police officer.

The District Public Prosecutor's Office of Bijeljina says that it is a criminal act of false representation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the RS announced.

  • Certificates for the blind to sighted people

Transperience International BiH says that they received a report from this city about issuing certificates for blind voters who can see.

"According to the information we have, the certificates were issued by a health institution, and they allow persons to be accompanied to the polls," explains Korajlić.


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