A majority of Iraqis say the situation in the country has worsened since the 2003 US-led invasion, according to a new opinion poll.
The survey was published as the oil-rich Middle Eastern country prepares to mark the XNUMXth anniversary of the overthrow of President Saddam Hussein.
Gallup International, a non-profit global polling organization, conducted a face-to-face survey in February 2023 in all 18 governorates, among a nationally representative sample of 2.024 adults.
Asked about the current state of Iraq compared to the pre-invasion period, 60 percent of respondents said it had worsened, while 40 percent said it had improved.
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Iraq's Shiite Arab minority gained political power after 2003, sparking discontent among Iraq's Sunnis, Kurds and other minority communities.
This factional division is also visible in the poll in which the majority of Sunnis, about 54 percent of them, believe that life was better under Saddam Hussein.
Despite this bleak assessment, there are some signs of progress.
Only every third respondent describes the situation in Iraq today as "poor".
When Gallup International dug into the archives and looked for the answer to the same question from 2003, it found that nearly two out of three Iraqis made the same claim.
A XNUMX-year-old man living in Anbar province told the survey team: "It is difficult to determine whether the situation has improved or worsened. Changes bring hope and we tend to forget the past. The economy has improved, but production and safety have deteriorated."
The US invaded Iraq in 2003 believing that the country had "weapons of mass destruction" and that Saddam Hussein's regime posed a threat to world security.
But evidence of weapons of mass destruction has never been found.
Instead, the war led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and permanent instability in the country.
Despite the US justification, many Iraqis seem to remain skeptical of the real motives for going to war.
About 51 percent of Iraqis believe that the US invaded Iraq to steal its resources.
This sentiment is strongest in the southeastern governorates and Anbar province, which are rich in oil and gas.
During that time, 29 percent of those surveyed believed that the goal of the invasion was to topple Saddam Hussein's regime.
Other reasons, such as the interests of US military contractors, the fight against terrorism and bringing democracy to Iraq, were less popular choices.
When the American-led invasion began, factional paramilitaries took to the streets.
Neighboring Iran has also found a way to intervene, especially since 60 percent of Iraq's population is Shia, long oppressed under Saddam Hussein.
After the rise of the Islamic State, which found support among disenfranchised Sunnis in the north, in 2014 a new battle for the soul of Iraq began.
Baghdad received massive military support from the US and its allies and the Islamic State was suppressed in 2018.
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Since then, a semblance of stability has returned.
Iraqis are divided over the future of American involvement in their country, according to this poll.
The number of American soldiers reached a record 170.000 at the height of the campaign in 2007, and today numbers around 2.500.
Respondents who live in the southern part of Iraq support an immediate American withdrawal, while those in the north, including the Kurdistan part of Iraq, believe that some kind of American presence is necessary.
Some 75 percent of the surveyed Iraqi Shiites believe that the arrival of American coalition forces is something bad.
They support Russia as a political and security ally.
Given the close relations between Tehran and Moscow, this comes as no surprise in an extremely volatile region.
Economically speaking, China has increased its presence in the Middle East even though the region has traditionally been under the American security umbrella.
Beijing recently announced a "détente" between Iran and Saudi Arabia, where they agreed to resume diplomatic ties.
But the future for young people is bleak - this is most evident in the Tishrin or October social movement that started on the streets of Baghdad in 2019 and was brutally suppressed.
And while 47 percent of Iraqis surveyed want to stay and build a new country, 25 percent - or one in four respondents - want to move away.
An unnamed person told interviewers: "A growing number of young people in Iraq, especially men living in Baghdad, see a better future for themselves outside the country."
Analysis by age groups tells a story for itself.
Almost one in three Iraqis between the ages of 18 and 24 want to leave the country - a scathing condemnation of the country's political class and its longstanding problems with corruption.
But the complexity of Iraq cannot be reduced to statistics.
For millions of Iraqis, the past two decades have been marked by trauma and turmoil.
And yet a new generation appears, which inherits the burden of the past while trying to build a better future for itself.
And while at least 40 percent of Iraq's population is under the age of 15, this young generation seems to value economic security and job opportunities the most, while yearning for peace and stability.
They hope that Iraqi leaders and international allies will rise to the task.
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The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percent.
The survey used a process of random selection of respondents and included cross-checking of responses for sensitive questions.
More than 50 percent of the field workers were women and they interviewed women.
Data journalism: Leoni Robertson
Design and illustrations: Rais Huseini Ismail Monir
Editors: Maja Musvai and Johannes Del
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