Many observers expect that Ukraine will launch a counter-offensive against Russian forces in the near future, in an attempt to regain the occupied territory.
For months, Ukrainian forces were focused on resisting Russian forces and holding positions on the front.
But both Ukrainian officials and Western allies have repeatedly announced that a major spring offensive is on the horizon, and it is known that Ukraine has been preparing new troops and equipment for some time.
However, further details of the plan remain secret and it can be expected that the Ukrainians will try to misdirect the Russian military in order to achieve the element of surprise.
Here's what we can say so far about Ukraine's counterattack plans.
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What is a counteroffensive?
A counteroffensive is usually described as a large-scale military attack or operation carried out by armed forces that were previously on the defensive.
For example, in a swift counterattack in September 2022, Ukrainian forces said they recaptured more than 8.000 square kilometers in six days in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
But authorities caution against oversimplifying what is involved in such maneuvers.
"A counter-offensive is not a single event that starts with the blowing of a whistle, and then necessarily ends in some foreseeable time," says Yuri Sak, adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, in an interview with the BBC.
"This is a very dynamic war, this is a very intense war and there are many factors that have to be taken into account."
When will Ukraine launch a counteroffensive?
Sak says Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive when it decides it can "achieve as much success as possible" with as few military losses as possible.
"The Russians had enough time to establish the defense lines well," he adds.
But some recent developments may indicate that preparations for an offensive may have begun.
Two separate fires at fuel depots have broken out in recent days in southern Russia and in Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
This week, two separate explosions in the Russian border region of Bryansk caused freight trains to derail, while power lines were destroyed by an explosive device in the Leningrad region.
Although Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of these attacks, Kiev authorities say the disruption of Russian logistics is part of preparations for its long-awaited counter-offensive.
Russia has limited the celebration of Victory Day for, as it was announced, security reasons.
"Of course, we are aware that the Kiev regime, which is behind a series of such attacks, terrorist acts, plans to continue the actions. All our special services are doing everything possible to ensure security," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said ahead of the Victory Day over Nazi Germany celebration. in World War II.
How is Ukraine preparing for a counteroffensive?
The Ukrainian army has not conducted any major offensive action on the Russian-Ukrainian front since the end of 2022.
During the winter months they worked to break the Russian troops and deplete their reserves.
According to US estimates, more than 20.000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine since December.
Another 80.000 were wounded, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, citing newly discovered intelligence.
The BBC cannot independently verify these figures.
At the same time, preliminary data indicate that 12 brigades have been prepared since this month, which amounts to between 40.000 and 50.000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Kiev took over a large part of equipment such as armored vehicles and artillery from the Western allies.
Ukrainian officials have previously said that a counteroffensive could take place in late April or early May.
The same dates were also mentioned by the American media, citing sources in the US State Department.
However, such a large-scale operation depends on many factors, including the weather.
It rained heavily in eastern and southern Ukraine in April, so armored vehicles would get stuck in the mud.
However, the dry weather at the beginning of May fueled discussions about the imminent start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Russian military bloggers, as well as the head of the Russian private military company Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, predict that the Ukrainian counterattack will begin before May 15, when the ground will be firm enough for vehicles to pass through.
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Why might Ukraine launch a counteroffensive?
Ukrainian authorities and Western allies say the success of the Ukrainian armed forces' counteroffensive is crucial.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to reclaim parts of Ukraine under Russian control.
He also wants to show that the governments of European countries in Europe and the US have invested well in Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian soldiers are likely to face significant obstacles to success.
They have no advantage over the Russians either in manpower or in armored vehicles.
Russia greatly surpasses Ukraine when it comes to the quantity and quality of their military aircraft.
To counter this superiority in aviation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need a large number of mobile anti-aircraft (AVO) systems, but since the beginning of May they have not had enough for operations on a wide front.
At the same time, the Russian army has problems with the coordination and training of units, and suffers significant blows to their morale and psychological state.
Prolonged unsuccessful attacks at Marinika, Vugledar, Avdejevka and Bakhmut significantly depleted the Russian forces, especially in terms of ammunition supply.
Where could a counteroffensive be expected?
To maintain the element of surprise, Ukrainian officials are keeping secret the location of the planned counterstrike.
Military analysts and experts point to several regions that the Ukrainians could choose.
One such place is in the south of the country, in the region of Zaporozhye.
Moving in this direction would allow the forces to cut the Russian "land bridge" from Crimea to Donbass and disrupt the logistics of the Russian military in both directions.
However, the Russian army has strongly fortified this area, with several lines of defense, and there are also huge trenches.
Meanwhile, the battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine has turned into the longest and bloodiest of the war so far.
Zelensky calls it the "fortress" of Ukrainian morality.
Besides boosting morale and morale, Ukraine's success in Bakhmut could lead to a decline in Russian defenses near strategically important towns such as Popasna, Gorlivka and Avdeyevka.
Other possibilities for a potential counter-offensive include launching an attack south and east of Kherson, or from Vugledar towards Volnovaha, or possibly attempting to cut the strategically important road between the Lugansk cities of Svyatova and Kremina in the east.
Watch the video from the front line in Bahmut:
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