The strategic importance of Turkey can be seen, which strengthened its position after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as world leaders rushed to congratulate Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections.
The first to congratulate the new-old president was Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia.
He had a great desire to congratulate his Turkish colleague and "strong leader", so he didn't even wait for the official results to be announced before singling out Erdogan's "independent foreign policy" as the reason for the election victory.
We can safely assume that the Turkish policy that Russia particularly likes is Erdogan's refusal to pursue the Kremlin after the invasion of Ukraine, even as Turkey's NATO allies imposed sanctions and reduced their energy dependence on Russia.
Trade between Russia and Turkey even increased after the start of the war in Ukraine.
However, apart from Putin, Erdogan was congratulated by Joseph Biden, the American president, as well as Emmanuel Macron, the French head of state.
Vladimir Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, also congratulated him.
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Although unhappy with Erdogan's relationship with the Kremlin and his persecution of free speech and restrictions on democracy in Turkey during his two decades in power, Turkey is a key, if difficult and unpredictable, ally of the West.
Turkey is an important member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and participates in all missions.
Erodgan maintains close ties with Russia, but also sells military equipment to Ukraine.
The Turkish president brokered a deal that saw Russia end its blockade of Ukraine's grain supplies, allowing them to reach parts of the world that rely on them.
After a long hesitation, he gave official approval for Finland, which borders Russia, to join NATO.
Once an ardent supporter of Turkey's entry into the European Union, Erdogan today advocates the policy of a "strong Turkey again".
For him, this means a more independent foreign policy.
Over the years, Erdogan has developed transactional relationships with all allies.
Watch the video: How Turkey has changed under Erdogan's rule
America did not hide its impatience during the persuasion of Erdogan to approve Sweden's membership in NATO.
Sweden would provide an important position in the Baltic Sea for an alliance against Russia.
The West hopes that the dire state of Turkey's economy - and the likelihood that Erdogan will have to concentrate on stabilizing finances and attracting foreign investment - could prove a soft spot for pushing for Sweden's NATO membership.
Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO countries that still block Stockholm's membership.
Meanwhile, French President Macron is worried about migration to the EU and hopes to receive assurances from Erdogan as soon as possible.
During the 2015 migration crisis, more than a million refugees and asylum seekers - mostly from Syria - made the perilous journey across the Mediterranean Sea to the EU in people-smuggler boats.
Brussels then made a deal with Turkey.
In exchange for a large sum of money and visa-free travel for Turks to the EU - the latter never fully arrived due to EU objections to Erdogan's jailing of critics and political opponents - the Turkish president did his best to prevent undocumented migrants from leaving Turkish territory to reached the West.
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However, the growing number of Syrian refugees has proven extremely unpopular with Turkish voters.
In May 2023, all political parties participating in the parliamentary elections in Turkey promised to take measures to solve the "migrant issue".
The EU is concerned about the possibility that Turkey will push refugees into Syria, where there is a risk to their safety, and that Turkey will allow people smugglers to rule again, sending boats with asylum seekers and other migrants across the Mediterranean.
Brussels is on the defensive as Greece is embroiled in numerous disputes with Erdogan centered on the Aegean Sea, while EU member Cyprus is still seething after Erdogan called for a two-state solution (Greece and Turkey) to the decades-long division following the Turkish invasion nearly 50 years ago. year.
The West once described Turkey's strategic importance as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed Turkey's status.
Few expect major foreign policy surprises from Erdogan as he enters his third decade in power.
But Ankara's strategic allies are watching very closely.
What Turkey does is important.
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