America's allies are increasingly nervous. As more Republicans jump into the presidential race and the 2024 election inexorably approaches, some European leaders have turned their eyes to the stirring storms in the transatlantic waters.
First, America is about to look inward, as countries tend to do during important elections.
Focusing on domestic voters could lead some Republican candidates to campaign on a promise to end US aid to Ukraine.
It's not something most Europeans are particularly enthusiastic about.
Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy has warned that he does not intend to issue a "blank check" to Ukraine.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is running for Republican representative in the presidential election, described the war between Russia and Ukraine as a "territorial dispute".
His Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, told CNN that he does not view the war in terms of victory or defeat — a troubling statement for Ukraine's allies who apparently genuinely want to win.
European allies did not try very hard to hide how much they complained about Trump when he was the 45th US president.
The possibility that he will be re-elected as the 47th president is perceived, in the words of former EU foreign policy adviser Natali Toči, as "catastrophic".
But even before we get to the first presidential debate, the current conflicts between Democrats and Republicans over the public debt ceiling have shaken confidence in the American political system in general.
"I think Europeans are getting more and more used to the fact that this broken system affects America's global reputation in various ways," Toči says.
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Raising the debt ceiling to prevent America from defaulting should be routine for the government, but polarized partisan politics have made it a tightrope walk with potentially disastrous consequences, both for the US and the global economy.
Although the two parties eventually reached an agreement, this chaotic process seriously damaged America's reputation as capable and professional.
As one senior European official, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, put it: "The overall picture does not look good."
Christine Lagarde, head of the European National Bank, was even more blunt when she spoke of the issue as "a huge, huge disaster".
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner openly advised American politicians to grow up.
When your friends advise you to grow up, you just have to wonder what your enemies are thinking.
There is consternation - I've even heard the word "appalled" - at how badly America is managing this budget round.
Angus King, an independent senator from Maine, knows what that looks like abroad.
"America pays the bills for the debts it incurs - just three years ago we had a cross-party agreement on that fact. We need to get back to it - and urgently."
If Washington can't get this simple task right, nervous allies wonder, what else can it fail to do?
The dispute has already begun to directly affect US national security interests.
President Joseph Biden cut short a visit to Asia last week to focus on negotiations, skipping planned visits to Australia and Papua New Guinea.
The change in travel plans drew sharp comments from Matthew Nott of the Sydney Morning Herald, who said the "disrespect" played into China's hands.
Australia, a key US ally, planned the meeting during Biden's trip to the so-called Quad countries (India, Japan, the US and Australia) to discuss regional security.
It is hard not to imagine that Beijing enjoyed the spectacle of its regional adversaries having to postpone the summit simply because US domestic politics got in the way.
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Which brings us to perhaps the deepest source of concern among America's European allies—a growing rift over how best to approach China.
And while Washington began to use an increasingly warlike tone, Europe has the feeling that it will have to pave that path for itself.
Europeans do not want to anger Washington, but they are not convinced that their security or economic priorities are the same as America's.
Trade between Germany and China jumped to a record level last year, cementing China as Germany's largest trading partner.
Some European leaders have been quite vocal about not wanting to be forced to choose sides.
When he traveled to Beijing in April, accompanied by an entourage of French business leaders, President Emmanuel Macron expressed just that ambivalence — especially regarding the vexed issue of Taiwan.
"The paradox is that, overcome by panic, we believe that we are mere followers of America," he told the Politiko portal.
"The question that Europeans have to answer is… is it in our interest to escalate the crisis over Taiwan? It's not."
This divergence led to some conflicts with American politicians.
"Our European allies have to make a decision.
"They have to choose whether they're going to side with China or side with the United States of America, we can't let them continue to play both sides," Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mays of South Carolina told NBC.
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As the 2024 presidential election approaches, there is little indication that either Republicans or Democrats will soften their stance on China.
American elections are always closely watched, both in the enemy and in the allied camp.
Their consequences for the world are enormous.
Most allies will say they want an America that is competent, stable and engaged.
But the possible catastrophic consequences of the fight over the public debt ceiling, a possible turn in policy towards the war in Ukraine, the chances of a second stormy Trump presidency or disagreements over China do not point to that direction of development.
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