The European Union and Great Britain: Is there room for improvement in bilateral relations?

Keir Starmer, the leader of the opposition, caused a pre-election frenzy in the press this week by announcing that he would seek a "much better" deal with the EU if he became prime minister.

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Photo: PA Media
Photo: PA Media
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

With the announcement of a general election next year in Great Britain, it seems that Brexit is back on the political agenda in London, but not in Brussels.

Keir Starmer, the leader of the opposition, caused a pre-election frenzy in the press this week by announcing that he would seek a "much better" deal with the EU if he became prime minister.

Then he quickly embarked on a whirlwind tour of The Hague and Paris, which included a meeting with Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, albeit a brief one.

Starmer's European trip coincided with the publication on Tuesday of a publication by a group of experts on EU reform, commissioned by the French and German governments.

It mentions Great Britain as a possible future "associate member", making financial payments in exchange for a closer economic relationship.

Bam!

Suddenly MPs are back to arguing over whether Brexit was a good or bad decision for the UK and what the EU's "offer" for associate membership of the bloc actually means.

Newspaper headlines sounded the alarm.

One spoke of a Franco-German "conspiracy", while another pointed out that it was an attempt by Brussels to encourage the Labor backbencher to start moving closer to the EU again.

A separate theory I heard was that this is a post-Brexit "olive branch" from Brussels.

I presented all these hypotheses to diplomats from various EU member states.

'We're having a different conversation'

Michael Berger, the German ambassador to Great Britain, took to social media more and more quickly to ease the speculation.

"The report of the independent group of experts is a contribution on enlargement and reform.

"It doesn't talk about EU-UK relations," he wrote.

Every EU official I spoke to said the Franco-German academic study was commissioned by Paris and Berlin to suggest how to "future-proof" the EU and its institutions as it considers enlargement that would potentially include Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the of the Western Balkans.

The publication was planned months ago, they say, to coincide with this week's EU meeting, while talks are heating up about starting membership negotiations with Ukraine by the end of the year.

"The idea that this study is in any way linked to a visit by Keir Starmer or even a visit by King Charles to France is highly fanciful," one senior diplomat told me.

"It has nothing to do with reality. We're having a completely different conversation."

Another stated that this "has already been seen, like in the old days of Brexit negotiations".

"British politicians are talking to themselves, ignoring what we in the EU are actually saying."

"Westminster is interpreting the EU too much," insisted one prominent figure from this bloc.

"We are hoping for signs of improved bilateral relations, yes.

“But we no longer talk or think about Great Britain on a daily basis. Our priorities have shifted to other things after Brexit."

This is true - the main emphasis of the study is how the EU could expand the number of members and still function - especially considering the inconvenience that potential new members would most likely swallow many of the EU subsidies currently benefiting existing members (including Poland , Romania and Hungary).

But it is also true that the Franco-German study also mentions Great Britain, however briefly.

And it is well known that French President Macron is very eager for closer cooperation with Britain.

He, and the EU as a whole, look at the global bigger picture.

They see an unpredictable China, a hostile Russia and worry about the possibility of another Trump presidency in the US.

In unstable times, they want to stay close to friends.

They know that the UK's two main parties have ruled out rejoining the EU or even returning to the bloc's single market or customs union.

However, they welcomed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's more pragmatic, hands-on approach and Starmer's desire to improve bilateral relations.

However, across Europe, everyone was shocked at his proposal to restart negotiations on the Brexit deal.

At the moment, the EU has very little appetite for the kind of time-consuming revision that would open old wounds.

Relations between the EU and Great Britain have already improved considerably after the dark days of mutual mistrust during the Brexit negotiations.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to EU countries cooperating more closely with Great Britain within NATO, the G7 and the G20.

Sunak's predecessor, Liz Truss, was instrumental in first breaking the post-Brexit ice, ensuring the success of the French president's favorite project.

Macron dreamed of uniting all European countries - except Russia and its close ally Belarus - into a group called the European Political Community.

Last October, Tras decided to attend the inaugural meeting.

Without Great Britain at that table, the European political community would not have the same weight.

It was a key post-Brexit moment of reset and the UK will host one of two meetings of the European Political Community next year.

Peeling off the layers

The Franco-German study recycles an idea that was debated and ultimately rejected in Brussels at the turn of the new millennium.

This is the idea of ​​a "multi-speed" or multi-layered Europe.

A bit like an onion.

The narrowest circle would be EU member states that opt ​​for additional power sharing, such as the euro currency or the Schengen agreement on open borders.

The second round would be all other EU member states.

The third, called "associate membership", would include countries that opt ​​for formal economic relations with the EU, but not political ties.

They would pay into the EU budget if they had access to the single market, for example, but they would not be part of the "more and more connected union" project.

At that point, the study mentions Great Britain as a possible candidate, along with Norway and Switzerland.

Many Brexiteers would see this as a betrayal.

The fourth and outer layer would be the relationship that the UK currently has with the EU, based on bilateral agreements.

For now, it seems that this relationship, at a decent distance, with the possibility of becoming smoother or thornier over time, is one that both parties are satisfied with.

As for the academic study, it was not supported by either the German or the French government.

Reactions to it were different in the EU member states, which predict that some - though by no means all - of those proposals will be on the agenda of the EU leaders' summit later this year.


What the countdown to Britain's exit from the EU looked like:


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