What Donald Trump's second presidential term could look like

He is the favorite for the presidential nomination within the Republican Party, which would put him in a position to cross swords with President Joseph Biden, the candidate of the Democratic Party, in November of next year

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Illustration, Photo: BBC
Illustration, Photo: BBC
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Donald Trump has spent much of his presidential campaign looking back, disputing defeat in the 2020 election.

But behind the scenes, he and his team are putting together a plan to govern, determined to avoid the mistakes of 2016.

For those wondering what Trump intends to do if American voters return him to the White House in 12 months, the former president is making it clear.

It can be seen in dosed segments on his campaign website, it can be heard at rallies, in his speeches and in the documents of the people he tasked with preparing for his second term.

They call the plan Agenda47 - a reference to the fact that Trump will become the 47th US president if he wins.

He is the favorite for the presidential candidacy within the Republican Party, which would put him in a situation to cross swords with President Joseph Biden, the candidate of the Democratic Party, in November of next year.

Eight years ago, when Donald Trump launched a then-unlikely bid to win the race to enter the White House, he did so with a limited budget and a tight-knit team of political outsiders and sticklers.

It had a slogan Let's Make America Great Again.

He set up several pillars of his policy, such as building a border wall and temporarily banning Muslims from entering the US.

And he had a stance that was anti-establishment and aimed at reducing the influence of lobbyists.

After an unexpected victory in the 2016 elections, he set out to translate his vague political vision into action, but with half-hearted results.

His "Muslim ban" was repeatedly struck down by the courts, before it finally became policy in a watered-down form.

His promise to build a wall on the border with Mexico has been thwarted by court appeals and Democrats in Congress.

It was, in the opinion of people from Trump's close circles, the result of a failure in preparations and a failure in the selection of collaborators.

These are mistakes that they do not intend to repeat if they win in 2024.

Just moments after Trump delivered his inaugural address on January 20, 2017, he entered the Oval Office at 17:55 PM along with Mark Lotter who worked on his campaign team.

Based on the discussion that followed, Lotter quickly realized that the administration was simply not equipped to deal with a "Titanic-sized government move," he tells the BBC.

This time, he and other veterans of Trump's presidency are making sure they are better prepared, he says, and have developed a plan.

"Here's the script. Here's how to do it. And here, most important of all, are the areas, places and positions where liberal democracy will try to stop you."

That scenario began to unfold more and more during this year.

Some of his promises border on the fantastic.

His administration will invest in flying cars and build "freedom cities" on vacant federal land, where Americans can live and work without burdensome regulations.

Other promises are controversial, such as a plan to round up the homeless and move them to tent camps outside American cities until "their problems are identified."

Certain promises directly concern the culture wars - he wants teachers in public schools to be required to "embrace patriotic values".

He also intends to strengthen protectionist policies, calling for a "universal basic tariff" on all imports, which can be applied to countries that do business using "unfair" trade practices.

On immigration, Trump wants to reinstate the policy of detaining undocumented migrants in Mexico while they apply for asylum.

It also calls for an end to automatic citizenship for children of undocumented migrants born on American soil.

He vowed to cut "hundreds of billions" of dollars in US international aid and end the war in Ukraine along the way.

According to media reports, he is considering withdrawing the US from NATO, or, at the very least, reducing US cooperation within the transatlantic defense alliance.

"The greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia," he said in a video from March.

"That, probably more than anything else, is ourselves and some of the horrible people who hate America and who represent us."

According to Lotter, the top issue on Trump's 2024 agenda will be energy -- increasing supply to lower household bills.

In his opinion, higher energy prices are the driving force behind the inflation that plagued the early years of Biden's presidency.

"Turning on the taps and sending a signal to the markets and the energy companies that we're open for business again will actually start to lower energy prices in the long run."

These policies represent the culmination of Trump's attempts to reshape the Republican Party in his own image.

The conservatism of George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney - the presidential candidates of this party in the four elections before Trump's victory in 2016 - was rejected.

"The party has moved forward, there's no other way to put it," said Brian Lanca, a Republican strategist with ties to the Trump campaign.

"We are now a party to tariffs. Who could have predicted that?".

The new Republican caucus, Lanca says, combines conservatism with a populism that appeals to working-class voters, including manual workers with traditional ties to the Democratic Party.

Immigration, trade and a restrained foreign policy backed by American "power" are now key parts of her agenda.

Many of Trump's proposals require the help of legislation passed in Congress, which, at the moment, is partially controlled by Democrats categorically opposed to his plans.

Others, like ending birthright citizenship, probably violate the US Constitution and would almost certainly be challenged in the courts.

There are, however, some that are within his powers as Commander-in-Chief and can be implemented if he so chooses - and if he has a cadre of loyal associates and government employees to carry them out.

And that's one piece of the puzzle that Trump has been planning to tackle for some time.

In October 2020, shortly before he lost the election, Trump issued an executive order creating a new category of civil servant.

These "Schedule F" positions were senior policy-making roles traditionally filled by career government bureaucrats.

Under Trump's order, they can now be fired and replaced by the president and his senior political staff.

This will practically enable the president to get rid of thousands of government employees and replace them with loyalists.

Joseph Biden quickly rescinded the order, but Trump is promising to reinstate it as one of the first moves of his new presidency.

In his campaign videos and public speeches, he boasts about what this change will achieve.

He will "find and replace the radicals, zealots and Marxists who have infiltrated the federal Ministry of Education," he says in the video from January.

"We will implement key reforms so that any executive branch employee can be fired by the president of the United States of America," he said at a rally in South Carolina last year.

"The deep state must be and will be thwarted."

Behind Trump's campaign machinery is a large number of organizations with the task of ensuring that Trump's vision is realized.

With names like the Center for Rebuilding America and the America First Institute — where Lotter works — these groups, mostly made up of former senior Trump officials, are churning out studies on plans and documents that could serve as a blueprint for implementing the policies Trump has outlined. in the past year.

The Institute for Conservative Partnerships, which lists former Trump chief of protocol Mark Meadows as a "senior partner, recruits, trains and finds employment for conservatives who might join the next Republican presidential administration."

They have assembled a database of willing foot soldiers in the sweeping reorientation of the federal bureaucracy that Trump wants to achieve.

This is the development that some of Trump's former associates, who have become his critics, fear the most.

"If Trump is elected for a second term, there will be no sane people around him," says Cassidy Hutchinson, who worked as Meadows' senior adviser and testified against Trump at congressional hearings on January 6 last year.

For Trump supporters, however, a more willing team of appraisers and associates will mean a less chaotic and more effective Trump presidency.

Lotter imagines that Trump will be able to lay out his plans in detail as soon as he takes office.

"These are fifty policies, these are 50 executive orders, these are 1.500 jobs that I plan to fill," Lotter imagines Trump saying.

"And here is my legislative package - to restore energy, to secure the border, to fight inflation."

Such talk is cause for hope and optimism among Trump loyalists, but a detailed outline of the agenda could set the stage for an onslaught by Democrats.

"I think there is an opportunity for Trump and his political hirelings to reveal themselves not only as completely out of touch with reality, but as someone who will deny the majority of Americans their rightfully guaranteed place in American society," said Craig Varoga, a Democratic political consultant and adjunct instructor at American University.

"And in some cases - abortion rights, for example - they want to criminalize what many people consider reasonable freedoms."

He also says that the always unstable Trump could change his mind and reject the policy proposals prepared by his advisers.

But Lanca says that's unlikely because this team knows Trump well.

"These people will have the president's trust by virtue of their presence in the administration and will have insider information about the influence they wield," he says.

"Will the plan change over time? Of course. Plans always change."

As for Democrats' plans to attack Trump's agenda, Lanca isn't worried.

He says critics have said the same things about the former president's 2016 campaign proposals.

"They scared people and were provocative, but it still made them pay attention to the substance of his message," he says.

"What Trump is really good at is breaking the mold of how you think the electorate is going to react to something controversial."


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