Istanbul has a special place in the heart of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Not only was he born there, but he also started his political career there in the 1970s: first, he was the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Party for the Beyoğlu district, which also includes his childhood neighborhood of Kasimpasa, a working-class neighborhood.
He later worked his way up the political ladder of the Islamic Party, of which he was a member at the time, becoming the mayor of Istanbul, then prime minister and, finally, president of Turkey.
He grew up on the streets of Istanbul, earning pocket money by selling bottles of water and bagels on the football fields of Kasimpasa and in the historic Eninonu district.
"Erdogan's personality is identified with Istanbul," says Isan Aktaş from the Department of Communications at Istanbul's Medipol University and head of the Genar Political Research Center.
"Istanbul is his home. Losing Istanbul to the opposition in the 2019 local elections was devastating for him," adds Aktas, referring to the defeat in the 2019 municipal elections that ended the twenty-five-year rule over the city by Erdogan's AKP party and its Islamist predecessors.
The man who broke Erdogan's unbroken electoral record was the charismatic and popular Ekrem Imamoglu, who represents the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and has led the city ever since.
But now President Erdogan wants to reclaim Istanbul.
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Istanbul is "Turkey in miniature"
Almost a year after the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey that gave President Erdogan a third term in power, the country goes to the polls once again on March 31st, this time for municipal elections across the country.
The CHP will want to retain the control it has over major cities, including Istanbul, the capital Ankara and the tourist city of Antalya, which it managed to recapture from the ruling AKP in 2019.
In Istanbul, Erdogan was effectively defeated twice - first in March and then again in June 2019 - after the electoral commission ordered a repeat of the election based on the AKP's claims of irregularities.
"Electoral victories in big cities over the ruling AKP boosted the opposition's morale in 2019, giving it hope of winning the presidential elections," says Seda Demiralp, professor of political science at the Department of International Relations at Isik University.
"Although the opposition lost to Erdogan in last year's presidential election, there is still a strong connection between the conquest of Istanbul and the conquest of Turkey. If Imamoglu manages to keep Istanbul, the opposition will have high hopes for the upcoming presidential elections in 2028."
Istanbul offers a significant opportunity for leaders to shape Turkey's national policy, says Aktas.
"When you have the support of Istanbul, you directly become an actor in national politics. And global as well."
This mega-city has a population of 16 million, a fifth of the nearly 85 million people in the entire country.
Its electorate is diverse, of different political, ethnic, religious and economic origins, with deep roots in different cities across Turkey.
Istanbul is, for many, "Turkey in miniature".
It is also Turkey's main economic hub, contributing significantly to the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
Control over Istanbul means control over a significant part of Turkish economic activities, among them trade, tourism and finance.
Watch the video: How Turkey has changed under Erdogan's rule
Test for Imamoglu
Although Erdogan nominated Murat Kurumu, his former Minister of Environment and Urbanization, in the Istanbul mayoral election, it is widely believed that the race will be between Imamoglu and Erdogan.
Imamoglu (53) is a former businessman who rose to prominence as the mayor of the little-known middle-class district of Beylikduzu in Istanbul.
He is seen as the biggest potential challenger to President Erdogan for decades because none of the previous opposition candidates who ran against him have ever managed to defeat him.
At a pre-election rally in Beylikduzu on March 24, Imamoglu told supporters that he was determined to repeat his success against the AKP.
"In 2019, we closed one chapter, and on March 31, the AKP will go down in history."
Another victory over Erdogan would strengthen Imamoglu's political authority and pave the way for his candidacy in the next presidential election in 2028, political commentators claim.
However, Imamoglu has not yet explicitly stated that he intends to do so.
In an interview with the Turkish daily Kumhuriyet on March 24, when he was asked if he would officially run for president in 2028, he said: "I have big dreams for Istanbul, I don't dream about anything else, I just fulfill them...".
"It wouldn't make sense to comment on something that will only happen in four years."
During his five-year term, he says that he is most proud of the expansion of the railway system in the city he ruled, as well as the opening of new green areas and the improvement of social assistance.
As mayor, he also promoted urban development projects by building thousands of new housing units, which he promised to continue doing.
Fear of earthquakes
Turkey has been struggling with an economic crisis for almost six years.
During the local election campaign, promises of economic recovery were key to garnering support, but as for Istanbul, another fear gripped the city: earthquakes.
Seismologists warn that a catastrophic earthquake could hit Istanbul at any moment and that local authorities must take all precautions to minimize human and material losses.
More than 53.000 people died in southern Turkey last year when two major earthquakes struck the region.
Urban development projects with plans to demolish old, dilapidated buildings and erect earthquake-resistant replacements are at the very top of the AKP's priorities.
"Murat Kurum is a name that is synonymous with urban development and has symbolic significance," says Demiralp, but that "may not be enough to ensure victory."
"Murat Kurum is a technocrat from AKP circles and will mostly be associated with the party's brand instead of his own brand - while in the case of Imamoglu, the situation is completely the opposite," she adds.
Watch the video: Earthquake in Turkey - one year later
Erdogan's campaign
President Erdogan, together with the leading ministers, is actively campaigning for local elections with a special emphasis on Istanbul.
Addressing hundreds of thousands of supporters gathered in Istanbul on March 24, he said: "Istanbul will return to its rightful owner."
He urged supporters to "work day and night to ensure victory" in this city.
"We will open the door to a new era on March 31.
"Everywhere I go around the country I tell everyone to phone their relatives in Istanbul and persuade them to vote for the AKP," he told the cheering crowd.
Erdogan, 71, previously said this would be "his last election": he is currently serving his third term as president and cannot run again after 2028.
But he has not yet chosen a successor.
"It is very difficult to single out another possible leader of the AKP," says Aktas.
"Erdogan is a very charismatic, very strong leader. When we ask people in polls who they would like to see as a replacement for Erdogan, no one comes to mind. This is a problem for the party."
But the president's critics are not convinced that this could be his last election, as they believe that Erdogan could use the election victory in Istanbul to consolidate power at both the national and local levels.
And to use it for constitutional changes that will allow him another presidential mandate.
A divided opposition
Compared to previous elections, Erdogan has an advantage: the opposition is no longer united.
Polls indicate that it will be a very tight race in Istanbul.
According to a recent poll, Imamoglu had 38,2 percent of people intending to vote for him, compared to 32,2 percent for AKP's Murat Kurum, according to the Konda agency.
Imamoglu's victory in 2019 was mainly ensured by the support of a coalition of six parties - nationalists, secularists, liberals, conservatives, Islamists and, crucially, the Kurds.
Istanbul has a very large Kurdish population.
But the opposition alliance fell apart after his defeat in the 2023 presidential election and opposition parties, among them the pro-Kurdish DEM party which has a strong and loyal voter base in Istanbul, nominated their own candidates to run in Istanbul's municipal elections.
None of the other opposition candidates stand a chance of winning enough votes to win the Istanbul election, but they could still hurt Imamoglu's chances of victory.
But a key twist that could work in Imamoglu's favor is the decision of the Islamist New Welfare Party to have its own candidate in Istanbul instead of backing the AKP, as it did in the last presidential election.
Imamoglu will benefit from their decision to refuse to side with Erdogan's candidate in Istanbul.
In Istanbul, Imamoglu and Kurum will not only need the votes of their loyal supporters, but both will need to win over voters from other parties to ensure victory.
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