Why Iran attacked Israel

The two countries have been waging a shadow war for years - attacking each other's targets without taking responsibility

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Attack on the consulate, Photo: Reuters
Attack on the consulate, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel in what it said was retaliation for a deadly attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied openly that it carried out the attack on the consulate.

Tonight's attack is Iran's first direct attack on Israel.

The two countries have been waging a shadow war for years - attacking each other's targets without taking responsibility.

Such attacks have multiplied significantly during the current war in Gaza, a conflict that erupted after the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israeli communities last October.

Why are Israel and Iran enemies?

The two countries were allies until the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, when a regime took power that made opposition to Israel a key part of its ideology.

Iran does not recognize Israel's right to exist and calls for the erasure of this state.

The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously called Israel a "malignant tumor" that "will undoubtedly be eradicated and destroyed."

Israel considers that Iran represents a threat to the existence of this state, based on Tehran's rhetoric, the creation of direct and indirect allies sworn to destroy Israel, the financing and arming of Palestinian groups, including Hamas and the militant group Hezbollah from Lebanon, as well as the belief in Iran's secret pursuit of nuclear weapons. weapons, although this country denies the intention to build a nuclear bomb

Iran wanted to retaliate after the attack on the consulate

Iran says the overnight bombing of Israel was in response to an airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1 that killed senior Iranian military commanders.

Iran blames Israel for this air attack, which it considers a violation of its sovereignty. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, but many assume it carried it out.

Thirteen people died in the attack, among them Brigadier General Mohamad Reza Zahedi, the senior commander of the Quds Force, part of Iran's elite Republican Guard active abroad. Zahedi was the main figure in Iran's operation to arm Hezbollah.

The attack on the consulate follows a pattern of airstrikes on targets in Iran, mostly attributed to Israel.

Several senior Republican Guard commanders have been killed in airstrikes in Syria in recent months.

Iran's Republican Guard directs and sends weapons and equipment, including high-precision missiles, through Syria into the hands of Hezbollah.

Israel is trying to stop these deliveries, as well as to prevent Iran from strengthening its military presence in Syria.

Who are Iran's allies?

Iran has built a network of allies and allied forces in the Middle East that it says are part of an "axis of resistance" to the presence and interests of America and Israel in the region. Tehran supports them to varying degrees.

Syria is Iran's most important ally, which, along with Russia, helped the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad survive the country's decade-long civil war.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most powerful armed group supported by Iran. It has exchanged fire with Israel on the border almost daily since the war with Hamas broke out. Tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border had to leave their homes.

Iran supports several Shiite militant groups in Iraq that have fired missiles at US bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. America retaliated when three soldiers were killed at a military base in Jordan.

In Yemen, Iran supports the Houthi movement, which controls the most populated parts of the country.

To show their support for Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis fired rockets and drones at Israel, and also attacked merchant ships sailing off the coast of this country, sinking at least one. America and Britain responded by targeting Houthi targets.

Iran also arms and trains Palestinian armed groups such as Hamas, which attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, sparking the current war in Gaza and conflicts in the wider Middle East. However, Iran denies any role in the October 7 attacks.

Comparing the military power of Iran and Israel

Iran is geographically much larger than Israel and the country has close to 90 million inhabitants, almost ten times more, but this does not mean greater military power.

The regime has invested significant sums in missiles and drones. It has a huge arsenal of its own, but it also supplies its allies in large quantities - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Reuters

What Iran lacks is a modern air defense system and fighter jets.

Russia is believed to be cooperating with Iran on upgrades in exchange for Tehran's military support in the war with Ukraine.

Iran has supplied Moscow with Shahid attack drones, and Russia is reportedly now trying to launch its own production of these weapons.

In contrast to Iran, Israel is one of the most advanced air powers in the world.

According to the IISS report on the military balance, Israel has at least 14 jet squadrons, including the F-15, F-16 jets and the state-of-the-art F-35 "stealth" jet.

Israel also has experience launching attacks deep into enemy territory.

Do Iran and Israel have nuclear weapons?

Israel is presumed to possess nuclear weapons of its own, but publicly espouses a deliberately ambiguous official policy.

Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and also denies that it is trying to use its own civilian nuclear program to arm the state.

Reuters

Last year, the world's nuclear watchdog found uranium particles enriched to 83,7 percent purity - very close to what is needed for weapons - in Iran's underground Fordo storage facility.

Iran said there may have been "unintended fluctuations" in the enrichment rate.

Iran has been openly enriching uranium to 60 percent purity for more than two years, violating a 2015 deal with world powers.

However, this agreement has been on the verge of collapse since former US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran in 2018.

Israel opposed this deal from the beginning.

What message is Iran sending with this attack?

"We blocked. We intercepted. Together we will win," this is how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assessed the outcome of the attack.

But Tom Fletcher, a foreign policy adviser to several British prime ministers and a former ambassador to Lebanon, said the Iranian attack was "an eerie signal of Iran's power and reach."

The authorities of both Iran and Israel are "under domestic pressure, facing international condemnation and very clearly playing with fire," Fletcher warned.

However, Iran's unprecedented attack appears to have been carefully calibrated, Fletcher told the BBC.

"Iran did announce these attacks and that's why it was easier to repulse them," he assesses, comparing them to the exchanges of fire he witnessed during the ambassador's days in Lebanon, where "the intention was to show capability, but not to escalate" the conflict.

He considers it "positive" that Iran chose to respond directly rather than attack through Hezbollah.

There are voices in Israel that the army should expand its confrontation with the armed group from Lebanon to drive its fighters beyond the border.

Sanam Vakil of the analysis group Chatham House assesses that the attack was successful from Israel's point of view and that Tehran "saw through Israel's bluff."

"This is the first time Israel has directly violated and violated Israel's sovereignty," Vakil told the BBC.

"The strikes were clearly calibrated, aimed at military installations, with the aim of not causing too much damage or injuring anyone," the analyst assesses.


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