UK election: Did leaving the EU boost immigration?

The post-Brexit years have seen some of the biggest population growth since the 1960s, making migration one of the key issues in the UK's upcoming general election.

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Photo: Gareth Fuller/PA
Photo: Gareth Fuller/PA
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

"Take back control."

The two-word slogan of the Brexit campaign, which saw the UK leave the European Union, was seen by many as a call to take control of immigration policy, ending the ability of EU citizens to live, work and study freely in the UK.

But the post-Brexit years have seen some of the biggest population growth since the 1960s, making migration one of the key issues in the UK's upcoming general election.

So what happened?

To better understand immigration in the UK, the English coastal town of Skegness is not a bad place to start.

Here, more than three quarters of people voted to leave the European Union.

As in many other parts of the UK, when it comes to immigration, the biggest focus is on those arriving illegally.

"Stop the boats" is a key promise from the ruling Conservative Party, referring to the tens of thousands of people who have made the dangerous crossing of the English Channel, often in flimsy inflatable boats.

Despite the fact that none of these boats have ever landed on Skegnes beaches, it is a matter of concern in the town.

Until recently, a large number of hotels on the coast were used to house asylum seekers while their applications were being processed.

Julien Bunce, who runs the North Parade Hotel, says it's causing problems in the community.

"They didn't harm us," she says, but adds:

"The general feeling in the Sekgnes area is that people don't want them here."

The vast majority of asylum seekers have since been moved out of hotels, but local concerns about the impact of migration remain.

The vast majority are here legally

You would think, therefore, that the record rush of immigration was largely fueled by people arriving in the UK illegally.

And you would be wrong.

The 2022 net migration figure - the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the UK each year - is estimated to have reached an all-time high of 745.000.

In 2023, that number is believed to be 672.000.

In the same year, 30.000 people arrived by boat.

The vast majority arriving in the UK came there legally.

These are people like Kiki Ekway, who works at the assisted living complex in Sekgnes.

While on the tour, she knocks on the door.

"Hello! Here comes sassy Kiki!” she says laughing as she walks in.

"Being a caregiver is not an easy job. You have to be mentally balanced, you have to have empathy, you have to be very observant," she says.

Kiki came to the UK from Nigeria, initially to study at university, but stayed to work.

Students and healthcare workers like Kiki accounted for around two-thirds of the visas granted in the UK last year.

According to Oxford University's Migration Observatory, they are the biggest factor behind the increase in net migration since the 2010s.

The numbers of arrivals, which former prime minister Boris Johnson called "scandalous" when they were much lower than they are today, are therefore largely the result of deliberate policy decisions by the government.

So what's going on?

It is true that government after government has calculated that Great Britain needs migrants.

Foreign students pay much higher tuition fees, practically subsidizing domestic students.

If their numbers fell, either British students would have to pay more, or universities would go bankrupt or the government would have to fund them.

Neither would be a popular option.

In addition to all this, many sectors of the British economy, especially health and social assistance, are suffering from labor shortages.

Of the 1,5 million people who work in Britain's National Health Service (NHS), one in five is a foreign national.

But despite the increase in immigrants, there were still 150.000 unfilled jobs in the health sector last year.

The effect of Brexit

Although it is striking that the UK's exit from the EU coincided with an increase in immigration, Brexit has reduced the numbers of one group.

In the 12 months to June 2023, net EU migration was -86.000, meaning more EU citizens left the UK than entered it.

But they were more than compensated by people who arrived from other parts of the world.

About 250.000 people arrived from India and just under 150.000 from Nigeria.

China, Pakistan and Zimbabwe are the next three countries from which the most people arrived.

'Stop the boats'

Despite this, British political discourse is dominated by illegal migrants.

At the height of the election period, "Stop the Boats" became a frequently used slogan in the political campaign.

Current Prime Minister Riši Sunak highlighted this as one of his five priorities.

To combat this issue, he devised a plan to send some of the asylum seekers who arrive illegally to Rwanda.

But the opposition Labor Party says it will reject the plan.

Instead, it will establish a new Border and Security Command to help remove failed asylum seekers.

And the recently founded Reform Party promised a zero-tolerance approach, which includes abandoning the European Convention on Human Rights.

Does the UK receive more migrants than other countries?

The UK roughly trails other comparable high-income countries when it comes to migration.

In 2022, 14 per cent of people living in the UK were defined as 'foreign-born' - a similar percentage of the population to countries such as the US and the Netherlands.

But if you look at countries like Canada, New Zealand or Australia, you get a completely different picture.

In Australia, for example, the number of people born abroad is twice as high as in the UK when looking at the total population.

Difficult compromises

And so we return to our original question: why is British net migration so high, eight years after leaving the EU?

The reality is that migration was not only motivated by freedom of movement.

The British economy needs migration, despite the political rhetoric.

Many of the decisions that would require significant reductions in the numbers of those arriving in the UK would require other kinds of compromises, ones that the government was not prepared to make.

Illegal migration, especially via dangerous routes, is something that all parties can speak against, and that is why the debate emphasized it.

During this time in Skegness, Kiki is acutely aware of this as she walks past the town's coastal attractions.

"I follow the news so I'm not completely unaware of what's going on," she says when asked about the immigration debate.

"If people have a negative impression, it is, in my opinion, misinterpreted. I think they are not really aware of the reality of what is happening on the ground.

"Many people are vulnerable here and need care. I think they are misguided as far as their perceptions are concerned."


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