Middle East: The killing of a political leader of Hamas has dealt a severe blow to the prospects of a cease-fire in Gaza

Again, there is much speculation that a full-scale war in the Middle East, feared since October 7, is imminent

5665 views 2 comment(s)
Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters)
Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters)
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Israel dealt two devastating blows to its enemies.

He did not confirm that he killed Ismail Hanije, the political leader of the Palestinian extremist group Hamas, in Tehran, the capital of Iran, but it is hard to believe that anyone else would want him dead more than the Israelis.

As for Fouad Shoukr, one of the commanders of the Lebanese military-political organization Hezbollah, Israel says he was killed in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, in an "intelligence-based elimination".

After the attack on October 7, 2023, which is Israel's worst day of bloodshed since its independence in 1948, everyone who holds higher positions in Hamas is a legitimate target for Israel.

Israel says Fuad Shukr was killed because as one of the Hezbollah commanders he was responsible for the rocket attack in which 12 children and young people were killed on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Hezbollah has confirmed that Shukr was killed in an attack on Beirut, and denies that the organization carried out the attack on Golan Heights.

Again, there is much speculation that a full-scale war in the Middle East, feared since October 7, is imminent.

The tragic irony is that neither side wants that war, but they are increasingly ready to provoke it.

The Israelis are under pressure from their American allies to measure their response to Hezbollah, which means damaging these organizations but not provoking heavy retaliation and igniting a larger armed conflict in the wider area.

But two assassinations represent a serious gamble.

However, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah may decide that an attack on their stronghold in southern Beirut necessitates an equal attack on Tel Aviv.

Israel could also count on Iran not to go to war over the slain Palestinian leader, even though his death in their capital and under their protection was a humiliation.

The assassination of Haniyeh, shortly after he met the new Iranian president, is a powerful demonstration of Israel's reach.

Hezbollah

The Islamic Republic of Iran thought it had succeeded in intimidating Israel when it fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in April, but that has now been proven false.

The April cannonade was also in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the Syrian capital.

It is certain that attacks will be retaliated by Iran, its ally Hezbollah or one of the groups and organizations with which it cooperates.

A pro-Iranian group in Iraq has made it clear that the United States (US) is equally to blame for what happened.

In the Red Sea, the Houthis could step up attacks from Yemen.

After months of Israeli offensive in Gaza, Hamas' options are limited.

However, Israelis remain on high alert for possible attacks in the occupied West Bank and in Israel itself.

It is important to understand that there is already a regional war in the Middle East, but to know that it could be much worse.

Still, this round of killings and reprisals may not be the fuse that ignites a full-scale war, although it's easy to imagine scenarios based on the clear and dangerous risks and realities in the world's most turbulent region.

Calming down the situation every time it comes to the brink does not mean that war is less likely.

This hampers diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching a solution that would avoid full-scale war.

The only reliable first step towards calming the simmering passions in the Middle East is a cease-fire agreement in Gaza.

Reuters

In recent weeks, the Americans have been saying that a cease-fire agreement is getting closer.

This was difficult to imagine because the positions of the two sides on an acceptable ceasefire were very far apart.

For Hamas, the ceasefire meant Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the end of hostilities.

For Israel, this meant a pause that would allow the release of some or all of the surviving hostages and the right to resume war operations thereafter.

A ceasefire deal in Gaza now looks more elusive than ever, although US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated that it remains a diplomatic priority for Washington.

Ismail Haniyeh was the main representative of Hamas in the ceasefire negotiations.

He communicated with US and Israeli officials through the head of the Egyptian secret service and the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim al-Thani.

The prime minister posted a comment on the killing of Haniyeh on the X social network: "Due to the political assassinations and continuous attacks on civilians in Gaza that occur while the negotiations are ongoing, we wonder how mediation can succeed when one side kills the other side's negotiator."

The assassinations fit more with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conception of "total victory" over Hamas than with the American idea of ​​achieving a ceasefire as an essential step to avoid an even worse catastrophe in the region.

It will also reinforce the view of Netanyahu's critics both in Israel and elsewhere that he wants to prolong the war to avoid facing up to the mistakes he made that gave Hamas the space to launch the October 7 attack that caused devastating consequences.

The Americans and French are also working hard to find a diplomatic solution to end the border conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

But the first and most important step is a cease-fire in Gaza, and the prospects for such an agreement have been dealt another heavy blow.


Watch the video about Ismail Hanije:


BBC is in Serbian from now on and on YouTube, follow us HERE.


Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube i Viber. If you have a topic proposal for us, contact us at bbcnasrpskom@bbc.co.uk

Bonus video: