What will happen after the invasion of forces under the command of Kiev on Russian territory

Ukraine faces a difficult choice - whether to keep forces in the area to increase pressure on Moscow or to withdraw now

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Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs announced that Ukraine has no intention of permanently staying on the small part of Russian territory that it occupied during the previous week.

However, Ukraine faces a difficult choice - whether to keep forces in this area to increase pressure on Moscow or to withdraw now.

Under daily attack from Russian drones, missiles and cluster bombs, and with an exhausted army on the front lines slowly retreating towards the Donbass, Ukraine was in desperate need of good news this summer.

With an extremely brave and well-executed incursion into the Russian Kursk region, she got them.

"The most fascinating thing about this incursion was how well the Ukrainians mastered combined warfare, using everything from air defense to electronic warfare, using both armored vehicles and infantry," said a senior British military official who asked not to be named. appointed.

However, what will happen next with the Ukrainian incursion into Russia?

Some will be more cautious and point out that Ukraine has already shown what was important to it - that Putin's war must cause pain to the Russians as well, and that despite the recent defeats on the battlefield in Donbass, it is capable of mastering a sophisticated combined arms attack using all the elements of modern warfare .

In other words, now is the time to pull back proud of dealing a blow to the Kremlin before the Russians bring enough troops into the area to kill or capture Ukrainian soldiers.


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Withdrawal, however, would jeopardize two obvious goals of the Ukrainian incursion.

First of all, to put enough pressure on Russia so that it has to redirect part of the forces that are in Donbass to this area, and secondly, to keep enough Russian territory in order to have a pledge for future peace negotiations.

"If Kiev holds Russian territory, it can negotiate the return of its own territory from a stronger position.

"Kiev will also want to damage the image of an all-powerful Putin regime among Russians and encourage the Kremlin to seek a solution so they don't threaten their own power," says David Blagden, of Exeter University.

One thing is clear. The presence of forces in Ukraine, a country that President Putin even thinks should not exist as an independent country, is unacceptable.

He will use everything he can to solve this problem while continuing to pressure Ukraine in the Donbass and punish the Ukrainian people with additional drone and missile attacks.

How annoyed he was, you could see on a video on Russian television during his presiding over an emergency meeting in Moscow yesterday.

Did the gamble pay off for Ukraine?

It is too early to give an answer.

If her forces remain on the other side of the border, they can expect increasingly strong attacks.

Blagden warns that significant manpower, equipment and logistics will be needed to hold the conquered territory.

This was undoubtedly Ukraine's boldest move this year.

It was also the most risky.


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