Steve Rosenberg
BBC Russia Editor
Kursk.
It was one of the first words I wrote and spoke as a BBC correspondent.
In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea.
One hundred and eighteen submariners died.
At that moment, Vladimir Putin had been president for less than half a year.
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I still remember Russian television channels criticizing him for the way he handled that disaster.
This week, 24 years have passed since the sinking of the K-141 Kursk.
And, once again, my dispatches from Russia are full of the word "Kursk".
This time it is the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops launched an unexpected incursion and where they have been occupying new territories for nine days.
This is right.
But Russia in 2024 is very different from Russia in 2000.
This time, there is no hint of criticism of President Putin on Russian television; no questioning of his decision-making; there is no suggestion that the invasion of Ukraine led to this dramatic moment.
On the other hand, the Kremlin has had a quarter of a century at its disposal to establish tight control over Russian media and messaging.
Nevertheless, will these events harm Vladimir Putin?
This is a question I have been asked many times in the last two and a half years:
- in 2022, when Ukraine sank the warship Moskva, the pride of the Russian Black Sea Fleet
- a few months later, after the lightning withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine
- and again in 2023, during the Wagner Rebellion, when armed mercenaries began a march on Moscow - a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin's authority.
President Putin shrugged it off, seemingly unaffected.
He will be confident that he can overcome this latest challenge.
But here's the thing. Wagner's rebellion was over in one day.
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The Ukrainian offensive in Russia has been going on for more than a week.
The more it continues, the more pressure there will be on the Russian leadership and, potentially, the more damage to Putin's authority.
During his two and a half decades in power, Putin carefully built the image of a "guarantor of security," the only man in an endless land capable of making Russians safe and secure.
His so-called "special military operation" (full invasion of Ukraine) was presented to the Russian people as a way to strengthen Russian national security.
Two and a half years since the outbreak of this war, there are not many signs of "safety and security" here.
There is more NATO on Russia's borders, after Sweden and Finland joined this alliance; Russian cities are regularly targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks; and now Ukrainian soldiers are occupying Russian territory.
By carefully choosing his vocabulary, Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian public that there is no room for panic.
While talking about the Ukrainian invasion, he avoided using the word "invasion".
Instead, he spoke of the "situation in the border area" or "the unfolding events".
The Kremlin leader also called the Ukrainian offensive a "provocation."
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What will the Russian president do next?
You don't expect him to pick up the phone and call Kiev.
Russian officials have made it clear that, after the Ukrainian attack, they are leaving the very idea of peace negotiations aside.
Not that any major negotiations were scheduled at all.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin announced this week exactly what his intention is: "to expel the enemy from Russian territory".
It's one thing to say it.
Do something completely different.
Despite sending reinforcements to the Kursk region, the Russian military has yet to re-establish control over this part of Russia.
Passing the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I stopped in half a step.
As workers set up seats and screens for the event, the Edith Piaf classic No, I do not regret anything ("No, I don't regret anything") went on the big video screen and echoed through Red Square.
It was a very surreal moment.
Vladimir Putin shows no signs of remorse for launching an all-out invasion of Ukraine.
No regrets about the decisions he's made since then.
If his public statements reflect his current mindset, he still believes that only one outcome of this war is possible: a Russian victory.
Look at itand this one video:
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