There are strong indications that the US and UK are preparing to lift within days a ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.
Ukraine already has a stockpile of these missiles, but is limited to using them against targets within its own borders.
For weeks, Kiev has been begging for those restrictions to be lifted so it can target targets inside Russia.
So why is the West hesitating and what could these missiles mean for the course of the war?
- How F-16 fighters can help Ukraine
- What kind of weapon killed more than 50 people in the attack on the train station in Ukraine
- Russians hit a children's hospital in Kiev, dozens dead across Ukraine
What is 'storm gray'?
"Storm Shadow" is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of about 250 kilometers.
The French call it "scalp".
Great Britain and France have already sent these missiles to Ukraine - but with the caveat that Kiev can only target targets within its own borders.
They are dropped from an aircraft and then fly slowly at the speed of sound, following the terrain closely, before descending and detonating a high-explosive warhead.
The "Storm Shadow" is considered an ideal weapon for breaching fortified bunkers and ammunition depots, such as those used by Russia in the war against Ukraine.
But each missile costs nearly US$1 million, so they are usually used as part of carefully planned strikes by much cheaper drones, sent in advance to confuse and tire enemy air defenses, as Russia is doing to Ukraine.
They were used with great results, when the Russian Black Sea naval headquarters in Sevastopol were hit, making Crimea unsafe for the Russian Navy.
Justin Crump, a military analyst, former British army officer and CEO of the consulting firm Sibyline, says that the "Storm Shadow" has proven to be a very effective weapon for Ukraine, accurately hitting well-protected targets in the occupied territory.
"Unsurprisingly, Kiev has sought its use inside Russia, particularly to target airfields used for cruise bomb attacks as they have recently been disrupting Ukrainian frontline inroads," he says.
BBC is in Serbian from now on and on YouTube, follow us HERE.
Why does Ukraine want them now?
Ukrainian cities and the first line of the front were under daily bombardment from Russia.
Many of the missiles and cruise bombs that wreak havoc on military posts, apartment blocks and hospitals are fired from Russian aircraft deep inside Russia itself.
Kiev complains that not being allowed to target the bases from which these attacks are launched makes it seem like it is being forced to fight this war with one hand tied behind its back.
At the Globsek security forum I attended this month in Prague, it was even suggested that because of these restrictions, Russian military air bases are better protected than Ukrainian civilians.
Ukraine has its own innovative and efficient long-range drone program.
Drone attacks occasionally managed to catch the Russians off guard and reach hundreds of kilometers inside Russia.
But they can only carry a small load and most are detected and intercepted.
Kiev claims that, if it wants to suppress Russian air attacks, it needs long-range missiles, including the "Storm Shadow", but also similar systems, including the American ATAKMS, which has an even greater range of 300 kilometers.
Why has the West hesitated so far?
Due to escalation.
Washington worries that while all of Vladimir Putin's threatened red borders have so far proven to be empty bluffs, allowing Ukraine to hit targets deep inside Russian territory with missiles sent by the West could push him over the edge and retaliate.
The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist that retaliation take the form of attacks on transit points for the missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an air base in Poland.
If that were to happen, NATO's Article 5 could be invoked, which would mean that the alliance is at war with Russia.
Ever since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the White House's goal has been to provide Kiev with as much support as possible without being drawn into direct conflict with Moscow, which could serve as a prelude to the unthinkable: a disastrous exchange fire with nuclear weapons.
Still, the White House allowed Ukraine to use missiles sent from the West against targets in Crimea and four partial areas illegally annexed by Russia in 2022.
years.
And while Moscow considers these regions part of its own territory, neither the US nor the international community recognize that right.
What happened projectile canli da promene?
Somewhat, but it could be a case that the help came "too late and brought too little".
Kiev has sought to use Western long-range weapons inside Russia for so long that Moscow has already taken precautions in case those bans are lifted.
It moved the bombers, missiles and part of the infrastructure that supports them deeper into the rear, away from the border with Ukraine and beyond the range of the "storm shadow".
- The third attack on Kiev since the beginning of the week, continued shelling of the Belgorod region in Russia
- Russian cruise missiles destroy Ukrainian cities at a "trivial" price
- At least 15 killed in the Russian attack on Chernihiv, in the north of Ukraine
Then again, Sibylline's Justin Crump says that while Russia's air defenses have since evolved to counter the "storm shadow" threat inside Ukraine itself, that task will be much more difficult given the scale of Russian territory that could now come under attack. .
"This will make military logistics, command and control, and air support more difficult, and even if Russian aircraft retreat further back from Ukraine's borders to avoid the missile threat, they will still face the loss of time and higher costs of a first-strike attack." the front line."
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, believes lifting the ban will bring two main benefits to Ukraine.
First, it could "unlock" another system, ATAKMS.
Second, it will present a dilemma for Russia as to where to place those precious air defenses, which it claims would facilitate penetration by Ukrainian drones.
When all is said and done, "Storm Shadow" is unlikely to turn the tide of the war, Saville concludes.
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube i Viber. If you have a topic proposal for us, contact us at bbcnasrpskom@bbc.co.uk
Bonus video:
