Reports have emerged that Turkey has formally applied for membership in BRICS, the bloc of developing nations, as the economic alliance prepares to consider admitting new members at a meeting in Russia on October 22-24.
President Erdogan has made no secret that Ankara is interested in joining, but how significant is it for a country, a member of NATO, to join a non-Western economic alliance led by Russia and China?
"Our president has made it clear that Turkey wants to participate in all important platforms, including BRICS," said Omer Çelik, spokesman for the ruling party of Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan.
He did not confirm reports that Ankara had submitted a formal request for membership, but said it was "in the process".
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BRICS is expected to discuss accepting new members at a meeting in the western Russian city of Kazan on October 22-24.
What if Turkey joins BRICS?
If Turkey is indeed invited to join, it will be the first NATO member country to become a member of the non-Western economic alliance led by Russia and China.
"I think it will be quite symbolic and important, not only for Turkey and BRICS, but also for NATO and the Western bloc," says Kerim Has, an expert on Turkish-Russian relations.
He emphasizes that Turkey needs foreign investments and that it had to branch out relations bearing in mind the deep economic crisis that the country is going through.
"If the Turkish economy collapses, it will reflect badly on the European banks, because the Turkish economy mainly depends on them," he says.
"Almost half of Turkey's trade is with EU countries."
According to the Council of the European Union, that bloc is by far Turkey's largest trading partner, to which 31,8 percent of its trade goes.
In 2022, the total value of trade between the EU and Turkey will reach almost 200 billion euros.
That is why, he claims, European countries turn a blind eye to Turkey's non-participation in anti-Russian sanctions after the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine.
"The West tolerates Turkey's building of economic relations with Russia and other BRICS countries," says Haas.
"Also, if, as a NATO ally, Turkey becomes a BRICS member, one of its roles will be to reduce the anti-Western tone in that bloc.
"Turkey's undeclared role in BRICS from the perspective of especially the US and Great Britain would be to prevent BRICS from transforming from a non-Western bloc into an anti-Western organization."
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What is BRICS?
Initially called BRICS, the bloc of developing countries was founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China.
When South Africa joined in 2010, the bloc changed its name to BRICS.
BRICS was designed to bring together the world's most important developing countries, challenging the political and economic power of the wealthier countries of North America and Western Europe.
The alliance has undergone major expansion in recent years and now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Arabia has said it is considering joining, and Azerbaijan has submitted a formal application for membership.
Bloomberg news agency reports from early September stated that Turkey also officially submitted a request for BRICS membership a few months ago.
The President of Turkey expressed interest in BRICS membership as early as 2018, at the 10th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Why did Turkey turn to BRICS?
President Erdogan, who has been in power for more than two decades, and is openly dissatisfied with the lack of progress in Ankara's accession to the European Union, insists that Turkey must improve relations with both the East and the West "at the same time".
"We don't have to choose between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)," Erdogan said, referring to the regional cooperation organization led by China and Russia.
"On the contrary, we need to build our relationships with both and other organizations based on mutual benefit."
In 2022, Turkey's trade with Russia was 11 percent of its total trade, and trade with China was at 7,2 percent.
Kerim Haas believes that Turkey's membership in BRICS "would receive strong support from Russia".
"Russia's number one priority is to keep the economy stable to preserve the war in Ukraine, to ensure that the Russian economy does not collapse under Western sanctions," he says.
"And because of that, Moscow will always want to keep Turkey by its side. They have many connections, from energy to trade to tourism. It is also good for Moscow to show that it is capable of building some mutually beneficial close relations with a NATO country."
Turkey's growing interest in BRICS, SCO and other partnerships should not be seen as a shift in the axis, says Yusuf Khan from the Wilson Center, an American think tank.
"NATO could benefit from an ally that is active in these circles," he claims.
Economy in crisis
The deepening of Turkey's economic crisis and its dependence on foreign investments and debt financing is perceived as one of the reasons for Ankara to juggle geopolitical relations.
Turkey is the 17th largest economic power in the world, according to IMF statistics from 2023.
With an annual consumer price index of 71,6 percent, Turkey is just behind Zimbabwe, Argentina, Sudan and Venezuela, according to data from this international body.
All recent public opinion surveys in the country point out that the cost of living is the biggest burden for Turks.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained pressure on Turkey's central bank to continue keeping borrowing costs low, emphasizing growth.
In his opinion, interest rates are the cause and inflation is the consequence.
But he changed economic policy in the past year, and the new economic administration followed a more "orthodox" path.
For example, the new board of the Turkish central bank raised the interest rate from 8,5 to 50 percent in nine months.
Although the current Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Simsek, claims that the new program is working well, and as far as inflation is concerned, "the worst is over", many are still distrustful when it comes to the future.
"Since Simsek was appointed, inflation has doubled, and the value of the Turkish lira has dropped significantly, despite the increase in interest rates from eight to 50 percent," says Dr. Umit Akcaj, from the Berlin School of Economics and Law.
"This suggests that Simsek's orthodox agenda, which sees excess domestic demand and rising wages as the primary causes of inflation, is ineffective."
It is not known what will happen to the Turkish economy in the future, experts point out.
"Inflation will decline in the coming months primarily due to the base effect," says Dr. Akcaj.
"However, falling inflation does not necessarily mean that the cost of living crisis is over. Without real wage increases for the lower classes, this crisis will continue."
If Turkey's application for membership in a non-Western economic alliance is successful, it may have a stabilizing effect on its economy.
But it is also likely that the main objective of Turkey's planned BRICS relationship lies more in the political arena and is merely an additional manifestation of President Erdogan's 360-degree foreign policy strategy.
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