Jeremy Bowen
Function, BBC, International Editor
US President Donald Trump's plan for the United States (US) to "take over" and "own" Gaza, displacing the local population in the process, will not come to fruition.
This would require the cooperation of Arab states, which have already rejected the proposal.
Among them are Jordan and Egypt, countries that, according to Trump's plan, should receive Palestinian refugees from Gaza, as well as Saudi Arabia, which would be expected to finance it.
Western allies of the US and Israel also oppose this idea.
Some, and perhaps many, Palestinians in Gaza might be tempted to leave their homeland if given the opportunity.
But even if a million Palestinians left Gaza, there would still be at least 1,2 million People.
In all likelihood, the US, the new owners of Trump's "Middle Eastern Riviera," would have to use force to remove the Palestinians from there.
Such a move would be extremely unpopular in the US after the disastrous American intervention in Iraq in 2003.
It would also mean the final end of the last grain of hope that a solution based on two countries still possible.
This concept is based on the idea that conflict that has lasted for more than a century, could be ended by the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
- Trump: America ready to occupy Gaza and turn it into a "Middle Eastern Riviera"
- Gaza Strip on maps: How 15 months of war have drastically changed life in this territory
- Gaza Diary: Many have nowhere to return
Benjamin Netanyahu's government is firmly opposed to the idea, and over the years of unsuccessful peace negotiations, the slogan "two states for two peoples" has become an empty phrase.
Yet it has been a key element of American foreign policy since the early 1990s.
Also, Trump's plan would violate international law.
The US's already worn-out claims to stand for a rules-based international order would be completely dispelled.
This would give additional impetus to Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine and China's in Taiwan.
What would the plan mean for the region?
Why should we even worry about all this if the plan is not going to come to fruition, at least not in the way Trump announced in Washington, while Benjamin Netanyahu watched with a smile and obvious delight?
The answer is that Trump's statements, no matter how incredible they sound, will have consequences.
He is the President of the United States and the most powerful man in the world, and he is no longer a reality TV host or a political competitor trying to attract media attention.
In the short term, the uproar caused by his shocking announcement could weaken the already fragile ceasefire in Gaza.
A senior Arab source told me that this could be "a harbinger of his end."
The lack of a plan for the future administration of Gaza is already a serious contentious issue in the agreement.
Trump has offered one solution, and even if it is not implemented, it deeply hurts the feelings of both Palestinians and Israelis.
It will fuel the plans and dreams of ultranationalist Jewish extremists who believe that the entire territory between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, and perhaps beyond, is the God-given property of the Jews.
The leaders of those parties are in Netanyahu's government, keeping him in power, and they are enthusiastic about this plan.
They want the war in Gaza to continue, and the long-term goal is to remove the Palestinians from the area and replace them with Jews.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Trump offered an answer to the question of the future of Gaza after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
"Whoever committed the most horrific massacre in our country will lose their country forever."
"Now, with God's help, we will finally bury the dangerous idea of a Palestinian State," he said.
Netanyahu said back in January 2024 that a Palestinian state was out of the question - read about it here HERE.
The leaders of the opposition parties in Israel's political center were less enthusiastic, perhaps out of fear of the problems that would follow, but they still welcomed the plan.
Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups might feel the need to respond to Trump with some kind of show of force against Israel.
- How Israel imagines the new Middle East
- The two-state solution: Is it the key to peace in the Middle East?
- Gaza ceasefire will stop killing, but won't end conflict
Palestinians are in conflict with Israel over confiscated territory and property and the memory of what they call nakba, "accident/disaster/cataclysm".
The term refers to the exodus of Palestinians when Israel won the 1948 War of Independence.
More than 700.000 Palestinians have either fled or been forcibly expelled from their homes by Israeli forces.
Very few of them were allowed to return, and Israel passed laws that continue to confiscate their property to this day.
Now there is a fear that it will happen again.
Many Palestinians already believe that Israel is using the war against Hamas as an excuse to destroy Gaza and expel its population.
That is one of their allegations. accusations that Israel is committing genocide, and now they might think that Donald Trump is further supporting Israel's plans.
- Why did South Africa accuse Israel of genocide?
- Why Israel continues to build settlements in the West Bank
- Israel and the Palestinians: Everything you need to know about the long-running conflict
What could be Trump's motivation?
Just because Trump says something doesn't mean it's true or certain.
His statements often resemble opening moves in real estate negotiations more than they reflect official and established US policy.
Maybe he's deliberately creating confusion while working on something else.
Rumor has it that he aspires to the Nobel Peace Prize.
Mediators in peace processes in the Middle East, even when they were not entirely successful, often received this recognition.
While the world was still pondering Trump's statement on Gaza, he was on his social media Social Truth announced that he wants a "confirmed nuclear deal" with Iran.
The Iranian regime denies that it wants nuclear weapons, but there has been an open debate in Tehran for some time about whether they are now so threatened that they need the most effective deterrent system.
Netanyahu has wanted the US, with the help of Israel, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities for years, and reaching an agreement with Iran was never part of his plan.
During Trump's first term as president, Netanyahu led a long and successful campaign to convince him to withdraw the US from the nuclear deal that the Barack Obama administration signed with Iran.
If Trump wanted to offer the Israeli hard right something to satisfy while offering negotiations to Iran, he succeeded.
But it has also created additional uncertainty and brought even more instability to the most turbulent region in the world.
Watch the video: Trump: "We're going to take over Gaza, it's a place to demolish"
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