The Sahel region of Africa is the "epicenter of global terrorism" and is now, for the first time, responsible for "more than half of all deaths caused by terrorism," according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI).
Its new report shows that in 2024, "51 percent of all deaths caused by terrorism" occurred in the Sahel – that's 3.885 out of a total of 7.555 worldwide.
The GTI report says that while global figures are declining from a peak of 11.000 deaths in 2015, the figure for the Sahel has increased almost tenfold since 2019, as extremist and rebel groups "continue to focus" on the region.
The index is published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, a think tank dedicated to researching world peace and conflict.
He defines terrorism as "the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by non-state actors to achieve a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion or intimidation."
Located directly south of the Sahara Desert, the Sahel stretches from the west coast of Africa eastward across the entire continent.
The GTI definition of this region includes parts of 10 countries: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Cameroon, Guinea, Gambia, Senegal, Nigeria, Chad and Mauritania.
The Sahel has some of the highest birth rates in the world, and almost two-thirds of the population is under 25 years old.
Unlike the West, where "lone-actor terrorism is on the rise," the Sahel has seen an accelerated spread of extremist jihadist groups, according to the report.
It says that most of the attacks are carried out by two organizations: the Islamic State branch for the Sahel and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) – an al-Qaeda affiliate.
"They are trying to introduce new legal orders," explains Niagale Bagadjoko, chair of the African Security Sector Network.
"They are trying to apply justice specifically based on Sharia law."
And in the process, he says, "they compete with each other" for territory and influence.
IS-Sahel has reportedly doubled the amount of territory it controls in Mali since the country's 2020 and 2021 coups – mostly in the east near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger – while JNIM has also continued to expand its reach, according to a UN panel of experts on Mali.
The GTI report points out that both groups recruited multiple fighters, including child soldiers in the case of the Islamic State.
"In some cases, people have no other choice when they are faced with the choice of joining an extremist group," says Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst specializing in Francophone Africa at Risk Control, a geopolitics of risk advisory group.
"These are communities that are very vulnerable."
The GTI report explains how political instability and poor governance are ideal conditions for the growth of insurgent groups, pointing to conflict as the "primary instigator of terrorism."
The Sahel is sometimes called the "coup belt" of Africa.
Since 2020, there have been six successful coups in the region: two in Mali, two in Burkina Faso, one in Guinea, and one in Niger.
These countries are all now ruled by military juntas.
"The Sahel has experienced a breakdown of state society," says Dr. Folahanmi Aina, an expert on the region at SOAS University of London.
"All have been affected by years of neglect from political leaders who have not necessarily prioritized governance with the people in mind, and local discontent has festered, leading to the emergence of terrorist groups that are trying to exploit it all."
There has been a perception that civilian governments cannot combat security threats from rebel groups, "but despite these juntas taking power, they have not necessarily improved the situation on the ground and in fact insecurity has only worsened," says Dr. Aina.
"Juntas are professionally unprepared for the difficulties of governing."
Moreover, in 2024, Burkina Faso “remained the country most affected by terrorism for the second consecutive year,” according to the GTI.
In the 14 years since this report was first published, it is the only country to have made it to the top of the list other than Iraq or Afghanistan.
Jihadist groups maintain operations in the Sahel through a range of illegal economic activities, including kidnapping for ransom and cattle rustling, according to the GTI report.
The Sahel has also become a key route for drug traffickers carrying cocaine from South America to Europe, and the report notes that "drug trafficking represents one of the most financially lucrative illegal activities linked to terrorism in the Sahel."
He points out, however, that some groups shy away from direct involvement in organized crime, preferring to "earn money by imposing taxes or providing security and protection in exchange for payment."
The report explains: "This model not only generates income but also helps these groups integrate into local communities, strengthening their impact."
Rebel groups also crave control over the Sahel's abundant natural resources.
Niger is the seventh largest uranium producer in the world, and unregulated gold mines that can be found throughout the region are often exploited by the likes of IS-Sahel and JNIM.
After a recent wave of coups, governments in the Sahel have turned away from Western allies, such as France and the United States, towards China and Russia in search of support in the fight against extremists.
"At this point, we see Russia taking decisive control of the Russian paramilitaries in the region known as the Afrika Korps [formerly Wagner]," says Ochieng.
"Their job is to train and support local armies so they can fight the insurgency in the region, but that hasn't been effective so far."
As a result, the GTI report warns that there is currently a risk of spillover from the so-called "epicenter of terror" to neighboring countries.
Moreover, he says it may already be happening – Togo recorded 10 attacks and 52 deaths in 2024, the most since the index began.
They were mainly concentrated along the country's border with Burkina Faso.
Ochieng agrees with this assessment, saying that "the spread of extremist groups within the region in countries such as Benin, Togo or other coastal West African states seems inevitable."
BBC is in Serbian from now on and on YouTube, follow us HERE.
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube i Viber. If you have a topic suggestion for us, please contact bbcnasrpskom@bbc.co.uk
Bonus video:
