How foreign countries are interfering in Syria

Turkey is estimated to have around 10.000 troops in Syria, mostly deployed in the border areas between the two countries.

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Ahmed al-Shara, Photo: Reuters
Ahmed al-Shara, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, is trying to establish control in the country to unify it after 13 years of civil war.

Meanwhile, it must also deal with political pressure from countries, such as Turkey and the United States, that pursue their own interests in Syria.

How is Syria currently divided?

In December 2024, Islamist armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies captured the Syrian capital, Damascus, causing former President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia.

HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara became the country's interim president.

However, HTS has not yet managed to establish power over the entire territory of the country.

"HTS controls a swath of western Syria, from Idlib south to Damascus," says Dr. Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

"There are large parts of the country where HTS does not have complete control."

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It is estimated that Turkey has around 10.000 troops in Syria, mostly deployed in the border areas between the two countries.

Turkey also supplies weapons and provides military and political support to militias in northern Syria, most of which operate under the banner of the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA).

These militias were opponents of the Assad government while he was in power.

According to some estimates, the SNA has between 70.000 and 90.000 fighters.

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The United States (US) has about 900 troops in Syria and supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who control the northeast and east of the country.

This group also includes the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).

According to some sources, the SDF has between 40.000 and 60.000 fighters, of which between 20.000 and 30.000 are members of the YPG.

Areas of southern Syria, home to a large Druze community, are controlled by militias such as the Southern Front and the Southern Operations Headquarters.

However, Dr Salem notes: "The Druze villages have largely accepted the HTS government."

What does Turkey want in Syria?

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Turkey supported HTS while it governed Idlib province, providing the area with services such as electricity and telecommunications.

It was the first country to send representatives to Damascus after HTS established control, including the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin.

Turkey has two goals in Syria, says Dr. Nanara Havach of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.

"He wants Syria to be stable enough so that the three million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey can return to their country," he says.

"It also wants to push Kurdish armed groups in Syria away from its borders, because it believes they are collaborating with its enemy, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

"Turkey wants Syria to integrate all SDF fighters into its regular army and deny the Kurds their own autonomous region."

"That's what Shaara wants too," says Dr. Salem.

What does the US want in Syria?

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The main goal of the US in Syria is to suppress the jihadist armed groups of the Islamic State (IS).

They clashed militarily with IS in Syria in 2014, and Washington supports Kurdish armed groups opposing IS.

One reason for American support is that Kurdish militias guard prisons in northeastern Syria that hold thousands of people accused of being ISIS fighters.

"These are experienced and ideologically motivated fighters who could destabilize Syria if released," says Dr. Havac.

The US imposed harsh sanctions on Syria while Assad was in power due to his regime's human rights abuses.

Those sanctions are still in effect.

"What Syria wants most from the US is to lift sanctions so that the international community can start investing in the country," he adds.

What do the Persian Gulf countries want in Syria?

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The first country that Shaara visited as interim president was Saudi Arabia.

"Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are skeptical of Sharia and HTS because of their jihadist past," explains Dr HA Hellyer of the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute.

"However, they clearly say they want Syria to be rebuilt."

"They want it to be reintegrated into the Arab region and no longer be a proxy for Iran," he says.

"Turkey has offered to help rebuild Syria after the civil war, but the Gulf states have much more money."

What does Russia want from Syria?

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Russia supported the Assad regime in 2015 and in return received military bases in Syria.

Russia's naval base in Tartus has enabled it to have a presence in the Mediterranean Sea, while the air base in Hmeimim has been a springboard for the operations of the "Africa Corps" - a Russian expeditionary force that provides security services in several African countries.

Russia has withdrawn its strategic resources from Syria, such as ships and aircraft, but is now negotiating with HTS about using the bases in the future.

"Syria cannot afford to have hostile relations with Russia," says Dr. Havac.

"Otherwise, it could cause problems - perhaps by fueling tensions between different ethnic groups."

Can foreign countries cause problems for Syria?

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"What works in Sharia's favor is that most countries want Syria to be stable and most factions in the country support the interim government," explains Dr. Salem.

However, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is clashing with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Aleppo province, according to the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War.

Dr. Salem believes that if the SDF refuses to disband, Turkey could encourage the SNA to step up attacks on these forces.

"It wouldn't be the first option for Turkey, but it is one of the possibilities," he says.

"So far, the US has prevented major Turkish actions against the Kurds," adds Dr. Havac.

However, it is still unclear whether President Donald Trump will decide to keep US troops in Syria.

In December, he declared that the situation there was "not our fight."

Israel also has a military presence in Syria.

Immediately after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel moved troops in the Golan Heights deeper into Syria, occupying the buffer zone that had previously separated Syrian and Israeli forces.

Israel also deployed troops directly adjacent to the buffer zone and carried out nearly 500 airstrikes on Syrian armed forces bases, causing extensive damage.

There is also a fear of Iranian interference in events in Syria.

Iran has been an ally of Syria since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and is believed to have made great efforts to support Assad's government during the civil war.

"The fall of Assad is a heavy blow to Iran, as it has been using Syria as a corridor to supply weapons to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon," says Dr. Salem.

"Currently, Iran cannot regain influence in Syria, but if the interim government fails and factions in the country start to clash again, Iran could find a way to intervene by supporting some armed groups against others."

"Iran loves failed states," concludes Dr. Salem.

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