The moves of Donald Trump, the American president, never cease to surprise and astonish.
The latest in a series is Trump's announcement that the US will hold direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
He warned that military action remains a possibility if diplomacy fails, but the very existence of dialogue marks a significant change in tone.
Especially when it comes from a president who withdrew from the previous nuclear agreement with Iran - the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
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Despite years of mounting economic and strategic pressure, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is resisting direct negotiations with the United States.
The reasons for his refusal are stronger than diplomacy.
It is about preserving the very ideological and political foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Entering into open negotiations with the US, the regime's historical arch-enemy, could undermine decades of anti-American rhetoric and erode Khamenei's authority among hardliners.
Iran's foreign minister said the talks in Oman would be "indirect" and added that he believed his country could reach an agreement with the United States if Washington showed goodwill.
Aniseh Basiri Tabrizi, a senior analyst at consultancy firm Risk Control, told the BBC she believes both sides want an agreement.
"The first meeting is unlikely to lead to an immediate agreement, but depending on how it goes, it could set the stage for one," he adds.
Does Iran really want a deal, or is this just another chapter in a long and dangerous game of high-stakes politics?
Watch the video: Why America and Iran are bitter enemies
Pressure mode
The pressure on Iran is increasing.
Its economy is in crisis, with inflation exceeding 32 percent, unemployment on the rise, and the national currency in free fall, falling to record lows.
Public discontent is growing, especially among the youth and the middle class.
Widespread protests recent years reflect a society under pressure from economic hardship and political repression.
At the same time, Iran's regional influence has weakened.
Key intermediaries such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have suffered major blows.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria weakened Iran's influence in the region by cutting off a vital link with Hezbollah.
Israel has been doing increasingly bold and harmful things. attacks on Iranian soil and against militias linked to Iran.
The Islamic Republic's ability to project force is no longer what it once was.
This combination of domestic unrest and regional vulnerability has amplified the cost of isolation.
Tehran may now see strategic value in resuming negotiations.
If nothing else, to ease the sanctions a little and gain some breathing space.
Dancing without trust
Every diplomatic effort is met with deep-rooted distrust.
Iranian officials remember well the fate of the agreement called the JCPOA.
Iran adhered to the agreement, signed during the Barack Obama administration, only to witness its destruction in 2018 during Trump's first term.
Result: reimposed sanctions and a devastated Iranian economy.
For Khamenei, it confirmed a long-held belief that the US was an unreliable negotiating partner.
This skepticism further reinforced historical animosities.
From the 1953 coup d'état supported by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq to US support for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War.
The latest event is the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike.
In all of this, the Iranian leadership recognizes a pattern of betrayal and hostility.
These events have not been forgotten in Tehran and they shape its every decision.
What further complicates matters are the confusing messages from Washington itself.
On the one hand, National Security Advisor Michael Walz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio insist on a complete shutdown of Iran's nuclear program, which includes uranium enrichment and missile capabilities.
This has been described as the "Libyan model", referring to a 2003 agreement under which the North African country's then-military ruler, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi, agreed to give up weapons of mass destruction.
Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff speaks of resolving the dispute diplomatically, calling for a review of the program and a more measured approach.
Dr. Basiri says much will depend on what is offered to Iran in terms of guarantees.
"What Iran will realistically want is not to see its program dismantled and it will not accept it being shut down," he adds.
"I think it's pretty clear that both the United States and, certainly, Iran want to avoid war," says John Mearsheimer, a political scientist at the University of Chicago.
"Whether that's possible is very difficult to say because we don't know what's going on behind closed doors," he explains.
Iran's trump card and fears
For Iran, a Libya-style agreement, complete denuclearization - is out of the question.
Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi renounced nuclear ambitions only to be overthrown and killed in a rebellion led by 2011 supported by the West.
Iran's supreme leader sees this as a warning lesson, not a model for success.
Iran's nuclear program remains its most powerful negotiating asset.
Now that its regional intermediaries are weakened and its economy is on the brink of disaster, its nuclear trump card may be its only remaining asset.
Renouncing it without certain guarantees could expose the regime to both foreign aggression and internal rebellion.
Professor Mearsheimer believes there is a fairly good chance that the US and Israel will attack Iran if the demand that it follow the "Libyan model" is insisted on.
"If Iran doesn't accept those demands, it seems to me that President Trump has backed himself into a corner to the point where he will have to strike Iran," he says.
In addition, direct negotiations with the US could cause political turmoil within the Iranian ruling elite itself.
They risk strengthening the moderate current, weakening the Revolutionary Guard, and challenging the regime's fundamentally anti-Western narrative.
If diplomacy bears fruit and economic conditions improve, there is a possibility that reformist momentum could gain momentum, threatening the hardline's firm grip.
A risky path ahead for everyone
Both sides now face difficult choices.
The US must decide whether it wants a narrow JCPOA-like agreement focused on nuclear restrictions and inspections or a broader deal that requires Iran to shut down much of its strategic infrastructure.
Iran, in turn, must weigh the ideological cost of participating in negotiations against the material consequences of continued isolation.
Some in Washington appear to be using diplomacy as a test, one that Iran will almost certainly fail, and also as a way to justify ultimate military action.
Others sincerely hope that the negotiations will succeed and that tensions will be reduced and the region stabilized.
The stakes are undoubtedly high.
The move could mark the beginning of a new era in relations between America and Iran.
Failure could set the stage for further instability in an already explosive region.
What remains clear is that the next phase of this confrontation could prove crucial.
For Iran, the pressure is mounting, both internally and externally.
Khamenei may still be in control, but the forces that demand participation in these negotiations: economic survival, social unrest, and strategic needs, are increasingly difficult to ignore.
Whether the negotiations ultimately succeed or fail, the outcome will shape not only Iran's nuclear trajectory but also the future of Middle East security for many years to come.
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