Will the battle for Nikšić be fought again on April 13th like four years ago, or is the electoral math in Montenegro's second largest city already clear?
Ten lists are competing for 41 council seats in the local elections in Nikšić, and the main competitors are the coalition of current mayor Marko Kovačević and the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).
On the same day, voting will also take place at the seaside, in Herceg Novi, where nine lists are competing for 34 seats in the local parliament.
The elections in Nikšić are very significant because they represent a test of the political strength of the parties in power and in the opposition, points out Nikoleta Đukanović, assistant professor at the University of Donja Gorica in Podgorica.
"Nikšić has long been the headquarters of today's opposition DPS and its coalition partners, and in this last convocation, the government in the local parliament was formed by the current parliamentary majority," he tells the BBC in Serbian.
In the previous elections in 2021, the list led by the DPS of the then Montenegrin President Milo Đukanović achieved the best individual result, but it was not enough to form a majority.
The government formed the lists For the Future of Nikšić of the then Democratic Front, whose candidate was Kovačević, and Peace is Our Nation, led by the Democrats of Aleksa Bečić.
The parties were then part of the new ruling coalition at the state level in Montenegro, freshly formed after the defeat of the DPS in the summer of 2020.
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Montenegro, which declared independence in 2006, has been a member of NATO since 2017 and is considered one of the the most promising candidates for membership in the European Union in the Balkans.
The fight for Nikšić 2.0.
The birthplace of Milo Đukanović, a symbol of long-term rule in the Balkans, leader of the undisputed DPS party for decades, has been a strong stronghold of pro-Serbian parties in recent years.
They are led by Milan Knežević and Andrija Mandić, the President of the Parliament of Montenegro, both of whom are close to official Belgrade.
They were the headquarters of the Democratic Front coalition, which collapsed in 2023.
The past campaign in Nikšić was calmer than four years ago and almost uninteresting, the political scientist points out.
"It is still official, we see the misuse of resources, both state and local."
"There were hints of outside factors, but in previous elections, it was more pervasive and visible, and their influence on the final result was greater," he says.
The problem remains the disorganized voter lists that do not reflect the real situation, but this benefits all political parties without exception, she adds.
In Nikšić according to the last census There are just over 66.000 people living there, but there is a noticeable departure of young people, which is not uncommon throughout the Balkans.
During the election campaign, politicians mainly talked about economic and social issues - increasing wages and living standards.
But identity messages were not absent, Nikoleta Đukanović points out.
"This was mainly addressed by the opposition, wondering whether Montenegrins in Nikšić, but also throughout Montenegro, were threatened by the influence of Belgrade and Russia, as well as their exhibits in Pogodinica and former members of the DF," she said.
Marko Kovačević, the current mayor, is a candidate from the coalition For the Future of Nikšić.
The DPS is again competing for council seats, as is the Europe Now Movement (PES), led by current Prime Minister Milojko Spajić.
The ballot will also include list "Let's wake up Nikšić", "Work for my city - Dr. Borislav Mišo Đurišić", "For a libertarian Nikšić of equal opportunities", the European Union, the Party of European Progress, as well as the Civic Movement URA of Dritan Abazović, former Prime Minister of Montenegro, and the coalition of Democrats and Plenum 083.
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Herceg Novi: 'Without any major changes'
It's less tense on the coast.
Compared to Nikšić, there is less talk about the elections in Herceg Novi, because it is a municipality where Bečić's Democrats have been in power for years.
"It is difficult to expect any political change now," Djukanovic points out.
A little more on Sunday from 25.000 voters in Herceg Novi are electing the seventh local assembly since independence.
The list "Stevan Katić - We Know Each Other by Deeds", led by the current mayor Stevan Katić, is fighting for seats in the local parliament.
Their challengers are the DPS and the Socialist People's Party of Vladimir Joković, the current Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro.
The people of Novi will also be able to round out the lists of the European Union, led by Rajko Komnenić, the Civic Movement URA, the Boka Forum, and the coalition For the Future of Herceg Novi and Boka.
The Civic Movement for Herceg Novi and the Novska Lista, supported by PES, Prime Minister Spajić, are also participating.
The previously dominant Democrats are in a serious crisis and Mayor Katić has tried to hide which party he belongs to, he wrote for CDM. analyst Ljubomir Filipović.
The political situation in Montenegro has changed significantly in the last five years.
After 2020, DPS falls from power and Milo Đukanović, the country was in political limbo, without a stable ruling majority, so it went to the polls several times.
In the meantime, a split occurred between the two new most powerful figures in Montenegrin politics - President Jakov Milatović and Milojko Spajić, former comrades-in-arms.
"The political scene is so poisoned that I think it would be much smarter for many parties to be in opposition and achieve the goal they promised the citizens, rather than for pre-election promises to be empty talk," says Nikoleta Đukanović.
Surprises are always possible, though.
If there are changes in the balance of power at the local level, Đukanović believes that it will not threaten the stability of the current national government, whose core is the PES and the pro-Serb parties of Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević.
"That would be a significant signal that support for the ruling parties is falling."
"They are in a constant, sometimes milder, sometimes slightly greater decline, while the DPS is trying to retain the electorate it has been counting on for the past few years," he explains.
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