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The exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran has raised fears that Iran could try to close the waterway through the Strait of Hormuz, known for its oil transit.
About a fifth of the planet's crude oil passes through the channel, which is 40 kilometers wide at its narrowest point.
Iran could consider closing the strait, according to the commander of Iran's naval forces.
Former head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service, Sir Alex Younger, told the BBC that this could be the worst possible scenario.
"Closing the Straits would obviously create a huge economic problem given the effect it would have on the price of oil," he said.
How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that about 2023 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in the first half of 20.
That amounts to nearly $600 billion annually in energy trade transported by waterways.
Any disruption to the waterway could cause significant delays in global oil supplies, with an immediate knock-on effect on its price.
However, analysts warn that a potentially more serious consequence would be an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran.
It could drag other countries, such as the United States, which depend on oil imports from the Gulf countries, into the war.
How narrow is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a channel between Iran and Oman.
Its entrance and exit are about 50 kilometers wide, and its narrowest point in the middle is about 40 kilometers.
However, the strait is only deep enough for large vessels in the central part.
Marine navigation charts define safe entry and exit lanes, as well as a buffer zone between the two – all specifically for heavy oil tankers.
Overall, large ships must navigate a canal that is only about 10 kilometers wide.
As the tankers enter the Persian Gulf, they approach the islands of Lesser and Greater Tunb – disputed territories between Iran and Arab countries.
Many experts consider military action the most likely method of disrupting maritime traffic.
This happened during the Iran-Iraq war between 1980 and 1988.
Defense doctrine?
Analysts claim that Iran views the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a form of "deterrence" - similar to possessing nuclear weapons.
Just as the international community has long opposed Iran's military nuclear program, major powers have repeatedly stated that they would not allow Tehran to use its strategic geographic position to choke off the world's energy supply.
Experts often predict that Iran could temporarily block the strait.
But many are equally confident that the US and its allies could quickly restore the flow of maritime traffic using military means.
How could Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?
A 2012 report by the US Congressional Research Service stated that Iran could opt for a gradual approach.
These steps include:
- A navigation ban in the Strait of Hormuz, without explicitly stating the consequences of violating it
- Announcement that vessels traveling through it may be subject to inspection or seizure
- Firing warning shots at vessels
- Use of military force on specific vessels
- Laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf
- Use of submarines and missiles to target merchant and military vessels
In the Iran-Iraq War, Iran used Silkworm missiles against oil tankers and laid naval mines in the waters of the Gulf.
One of those mines hit the American ship USS Samuel B. Roberts, prompting the US to respond militarily.
Iran failed to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but it significantly raised shipping insurance premiums and created a costly maritime bottleneck at the exit from the Gulf.
Iran's military capabilities
Two days before Major General Hossein Salami was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran, the then commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) visited naval units deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.
He visited the Persian Gulf and its surroundings as one of the most critical defense zones of the Islamic Republic.
He specifically highlighted fast missile-launching vessels capable of traveling 10 kilometers in less than three minutes.
General Salami said that this fast attack craft, heavier combat ships and missiles would be used in defensive operations.
He also singled out anti-ship naval mines as "one of the most decisive weapons in naval battles."
Salami said that naval drones have been expanded "in terms of range, capabilities and diversity of missions."
What do analysts predict?
That one of the most effective ways to stop the approximately 3.000 ships that pass through this waterway every month would be to lay mines, using fast attack craft and submarines.
Iran's regular navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy could potentially launch attacks on foreign warships and merchant vessels.
However, large warships could in turn become easy targets for Israeli or American air strikes.
Iranian speedboats are often armed with anti-ship missiles, and the country also possesses a range of surface vessels, semi-submarines, and submarines.
Internet-based maritime traffic monitoring stations using satellite imagery are currently reporting recent movements of Iranian military vessels near the country's southern maritime border.
Which countries would be hardest hit by the closure of the strait?
Analysts' research indicates that Saudi Arabia exports about six million barrels of crude oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz - more than any neighboring country.
China, India, Japan and South Korea are among the main importers of crude oil passing through it.
The EIA estimates that in 2022, about 82 percent of crude oil and condensate - a low-density liquid hydrocarbon that is usually formed from natural gas - leaving the strait went to Asian countries.
On April 2025, 60, just three days before the Israeli missile attack on Iranian air defenses, the official Iranian news agency IRNA quoted South Korean President Yun Suk-yeol as saying that XNUMX percent of his country's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The EIA says the US imports about 700.000 barrels of crude oil and condensate per day from the strait – roughly 11 percent of its total oil imports and three percent of its gasoline consumption.
Europe's collective share of oil transported through the strait appears to be less than a million barrels per day.
In light of this, it seems that Arab and Asian countries have more to lose from the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz than the United States or European powers, which have politically aligned themselves with Israel in the most recent conflict.
A large number of Asian countries maintain good or even close relations with Iran.
The influence of China
China is one of the largest consumers of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
A significant portion of this oil is sold by Iran at prices below world market value – a vital economic lifeline that helps Tehran cope with painful US sanctions.
As a major consumer of Iranian oil, it is extremely unlikely that Beijing would welcome any rise in oil prices or disruption of transport routes.
China can be expected to use its full diplomatic potential to prevent the closure of this vital energy corridor.
Anas Alhaji, a partner at energy consulting firm Outlook Advisors, told CNBC that closing the Strait of Hormuz would likely hurt Iran's allies more than its enemies.
"The Iranians don't want to do something that would harm themselves first," he said.
Can alternative routes bypass the blockade?
The constant threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz over the years has led oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region to develop alternative export routes.
According to the EIA report, Saudi Arabia has activated the East-West Pipeline, a 1.200-kilometer-long pipeline that can transport five million barrels of crude oil per day.
In 2019, Saudi Arabia temporarily modified a natural gas pipeline to transport crude oil.
The United Arab Emirates has connected its onshore oil fields to the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman via a pipeline with a daily capacity of 1,5 million barrels.
In July 2021, Iran launched the Goreh–Jask pipeline with the aim of transporting crude oil to the Gulf of Oman.
This pipeline can currently transport around 350.000 barrels per day – although reports indicate that Iran is not yet doing so.
The EIA estimates that these alternative routes collectively hold about 3,5 million barrels of oil per day – roughly 15 percent of the crude currently transported through the strait.
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