Marko Protic
BBC journalist
A dark room, uniformed people in front of monitors monitor the city streets full of protesters, police, and overturned cars, awaiting orders from a man in a gray suit who walks nervously behind them.
What seems like a scene from a cheap conspiracy theory movie actually exists in every country's police force, just like the category of chaos in political science.
The story of the theory of controlled chaos was introduced into the lives of people in Serbia during the hot summer days. President Aleksandar Vučić.
He accused anti-government protesters of They have been protesting for months. seeking responsibility for the deaths of 16 people in the collapse of a canopy at a Novi Sad station to gradually "undermine trust in institutions and create an atmosphere of permanent instability".
Protests in Serbia are became more tense in August, clashes between anti-government protesters and supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) are becoming more frequent, as are police interventions, with accusations of brutality and abuse of power.
And how does chaos theory explain situations like this?
"In short, it is based on the proposition that in complex systems, small changes in initial conditions can lead to unpredictable and often disproportionate outcomes," says Régis Dandois, a professor at the Université Libre in Brussels, in a written response to the BBC in Serbian.
Watch the video: How chaos theory changed our understanding of the universe
Who controls the chaos and how?
Chaos theory originates from mathematics and physics, but political systems are also complex and based on numerous interactions of actors who are mutually dependent, explains Dandoa.
"In politics, this implies that small political events - symbolic actions, speeches - can trigger important political changes," he explains.
It's Vucic after demonstrations and clashes with the police in cities across the country, without providing evidence, said that protesters are using "socially controlled chaos in phases," the first, he claims, being the dissemination of disinformation.
In the second phase, the crisis intensifies through escalation of violence and foreign policy pressures, while in the third phase, transformation and acceptance of unacceptable solutions occur, Vučić said.
"The second phase is used in political and security analysis to describe an escalating mechanism of societal destabilization, where chaos is not spontaneous but is purposefully initiated by domestic and foreign actors," he said.
Controlled chaos means that the political system functions unpredictably and unstablely, but also has certain limits that prevent complete collapse, explains Professor Dandoa.
"An example of controlled chaos in Western democracies is that large protests, strikes, government resignations, populist victories, or even the entry of radical right-wingers into power, lead to a certain amount of political chaos, but never exceed the limits of a democratic state," he points out.
- Are student protests in Serbia a 'color revolution' as authorities claim?
- Accusations of police violence: Testimonies from those injured in protests in Serbia
- Are student protests affecting Serbia's economy?
Critics of the Serbian government claim that one of the main problems in the country is the failure of institutions to function, and they blame the SNS for this.
If institutions are not functioning or do not exist, even a small event can potentially have disproportionate consequences for politics and the system, "if it happens at the right time, in the right place," Dandoa adds.
Accusations of the use of controlled chaos in recent history have often been made by Russian officials against the West.
So they are from the Kremlin in April 2024. accused the United States that they are using controlled chaos in the Middle East to control the region, which was denied by Washington.
Arab Spring
In recent history, probably the most famous example of chaos theory in politics is the Arab Spring, according to experts.
"Then a street vendor in Tunisia set himself on fire, and this seemingly small event had a disproportionate impact on the entire political system in Tunisia and created a chain reaction across neighboring countries, such as Egypt, Libya, and Syria," Dandoa said.
Arab Spring, which began with protests in Tunisia in December 2010 after Mohamed Bouzazi set himself on fire, led to the change of government in that country.
The wave of protests spread to Libya, where long-time autocrat overthrown Muammar Gaddafi and Egypt, whose president is Hosni Mubarak resigns.
In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad tried to suppress the protests, but they escalated into civil war.
"Sometimes it is difficult to control the development of even the smallest events and predict the consequences."
"Political processes are rarely linear or predictable," Dandoa emphasizes.
Watch a video about the 'Arab Spring'
One example in recent history is the spread of political rumors and false information on the eve of US presidential election 2016.
For months before the election, disinformation appeared on the internet that then-President Barack Obama was a Muslim, that Democratic Party representatives were running a pedophile ring, and that the entire electoral system was corrupt.
The goal of publishing this disinformation was not just a party or part of a political strategy, but to cause chaos, the conclusion is. studies by political scientists Michael Petersen, Matthias Osmundsen and Kevin Arsenault.
In those presidential elections, Republican candidate Donald Trump He defeated Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party candidate.
- Conspiracy theories - how they came about and what we can learn from them
- The butterfly effect - how one detail can change the whole world
- The story of "chemtrails" is spreading on the Internet - what is the truth in the conspiracy theory about aircraft trails
Social networks as a new level of complication
The introduction of new technologies into the game increases the unpredictability of political systems and can accelerate events, even chaos, experts believe.
"More actors are emerging, and they are even more independent, further complicating the situation," Dandoa tells the BBC.
Over the past nine months in Serbia, organizers of anti-government demonstrations have frequently used social media to announce locations, times of actions and protests.
It was on X, Facebook and Instagram that in recent months, footage of police interventions which were often the reason for organizing new protests.
After the student and anti-government demonstrations, SNS supporters also decided to protest, and they also used online platforms for organizing events.
An additional problem is that now "events that are a kind of trigger can occur in the digital world, and the main actors are located on the periphery, far from where decisions are made," concludes Dandoa.
BBC is in Serbian from now on and on YouTube, follow us HERE.
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube i Viber. If you have a topic proposal for us, contact us at bbcnasrpskom@bbc.co.uk
- Is it punishable to write messages on banknotes and are such actions successful?
- 'Let's make them famous': Internet trend and/or distrust in the police in Serbia
- What does ACAB mean and why is it seen and heard on the streets of Serbia?
- When can police officers wear camouflage?
- 'Loud sound' at the protest in Belgrade: What did the European Court decide, and what did the Russian secret service conclude?
- How tents rule the center of Belgrade
Bonus video:
