Who will rule Gaza - the burning question everyone is trying to answer

So what could the future of Gaza look like and will Hamas be disarmed?

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Foto: Anadolu via Getty Images
Foto: Anadolu via Getty Images
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Muhammad Morsi

BBC News in Arabic

"The war is over."

This is how US President Donald Trump proudly described the results of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas (in the meantime it has been violated), achieved under his auspices after two years of war in the Gaza Strip.

The agreement includes Israel's withdrawal from parts of this territory and exchange of detainees, prisoners and hostages.

However, the key issues raised in Trump's plan remain unresolved and could threaten the ceasefire.

So what could the future of Gaza look like and will Hamas be disarmed?

Who will govern Gaza under Trump's plan?

According to Trump's plan, Gaza would be temporarily governed by a "technocratic, apolitical Palestinian board, responsible for the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities," in other words, a nonpartisan organization that manages services in the territory.

It will be composed of qualified Palestinians and international experts, under the supervision of a new international transitional body, called the "Peace Committee" in the official plan.

Other members and heads of state have yet to be officially announced, and it is expected that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair have some role in this body.

PA Media

The plan calls for America, in cooperation with Arab and international partners, to establish a temporary international stabilization force.

They will be immediately deployed to Gaza to provide training and support to the approved Palestinian police service.

This service will maintain close cooperation with Jordan and Egypt, and should serve as a long-term transitional security solution.

The UK and France are currently working on a UN Security Council resolution to create this force.

Will Hamas hand over its weapons?

Israel insists that Hamas disarm.

"If they don't disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and probably violently...", Trump said upon returning to America from the Middle East.

“I talked to Hamas and I told them, you will disarm, right?

"Yes, sir, we will disarm. That's what they told me."

Bashar Taleb / AFP via Getty Images

However, the AFP news agency previously quoted Hamas officials as saying that laying down arms was "not an option and out of the question".

After the ceasefire came into effect, the AFP news agency quoted an unnamed Hamas official as saying that the movement would not participate in governing Gaza during the transitional period.

But the official told AFP that Hamas would remain "an integral part of the Palestinian fabric".

The movement was reserved about the participation of the international community, and especially about the potential role of Tony Blair.

Reuters

Where are the Hamas fighters now?

Footage and photos from Gaza show Hamas fighters on the streets after Israel's withdrawal.

Anadolu via Getty Images

Local sources tell the BBC that Hamas has mobilized thousands of security forces to regain control of areas abandoned by the Israeli army.

Hamas has denied any intention to re-establish full control over Gaza.

Who are the clans that Hamas is fighting against?

The war-torn enclave suffered enormous human and material losses.

After the ceasefire, clashes broke out between Hamas fighters and armed clans, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries.

During a visit to the Middle East, Trump said Hamas had been given the green light to carry out "internal security operations" in Gaza.

The group wants to "stop the problems and has been authorized to do so for some time," he said.

"If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them," he wrote Trump on his social network Truth (Social Truth).

He later explained that by "we" he did not mean American forces.

Palestinian analyst Jihad Harb told the BBC that there were "only two options for the future of Gaza".

"Either allow a weakened, war-torn Hamas to control the Strip with Israel's consent, or gradually transfer power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), a path that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has steadfastly rejected."

The Palestinian Authority retained limited control over the West Bank under Israeli occupation.

In June, Netanyahu said that Israel had "activated clans" in Gaza to confront Hamas.

Hamas accuses these clans of collaborating with Israel.

Following reports that he had approved the provision of weapons to a group led by Yasser Abu Shabaab, Netanyahu in a video posted on Iks said: "I don't understand what's wrong with that?"

"It only saves the lives of Israeli soldiers... and publicly announcing this only helps Hamas."

Hamas recently clashed with another group, the Dagmash clan, accusing some members of this group of having ties to an armed group loyal to Israel.

What is Israel's position?

Abir Sultan / EPA / Shutterstock

Israeli journalist Eli Nisan told BBC News Arabic that he sees no future role for Hamas in the administration of the Gaza Strip, "not only because of Israeli opposition, but also because of the dissatisfaction among Gazans after two years of war."

The official Israeli position under Netanyahu is to reject any role for Hamas in governing Gaza.

Israel also opposes the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.

This stance has been reinforced after the October 7 Hamas attack that killed about 1.200 people, followed by an Israeli military campaign that has killed at least 67.000 people, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza.

In an August interview with Fox News, before the ceasefire agreement was reached, Netanyahu said that Israel planned to take full control of Gaza and later hand it over to an unnamed "Arab ruling power."

Israel plans to transfer the administration of Gaza "to Arab forces that will run it properly, without posing a threat to us, while ensuring a decent life for the people of Gaza," Netanyahu said.

Nisan believes that Netanyahu's government opposes the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza because it wants to avoid any territorial connection of the West Bank and the Strip.

He adds that Netanyahu could give in to Trump's pressure and allow Palestine limited participation in the administration of Gaza.

Under Marey/POOL/EPA/Shutterstock

Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian Authority, as mentioned earlier, has limited control over West coast which is under Israeli occupation.

Trump's plan envisions the Palestinian Authority eventually controlling Gaza.

According to the plan, this should happen after the Palestinian Authority completes the reform program "defined in various proposals, including the 2020 Trump peace plan and the Saudi-French initiative (for peace talks)."

The reform that America wants involves the Palestinian Authority reducing alleged corruption.

Reuters

Israel occupied Gaza after the 1967 war, but the Palestinian Authority, dominated by the Fatah movement, took control of it after the Israeli withdrawal in 2005, before losing it to Hamas in 2007 after violent internal strife.

Fatah was founded by several people, among them the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), led by Fatah in the 1990s, officially renounced armed resistance to Israel and supported a United Nations resolution opening the door to the creation of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

Paul J Richards / AFP via Getty Images

The Palestinian Authority welcomed Trump's initiative.

"We are already in Gaza," said Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Muhammad Mustafa.

"A temporary international arrangement for assistance and oversight is one thing, but real governance and delivery are something else entirely," he said.

He added that many countries, including Arab countries, believe that the Palestinian Authority should be "responsible" for Gaza because it is "the only practical way to get things done."

What is Trump's position now?

Trump has consistently insisted that Hamas must be defeated to end the conflict, but his vision of a post-war future for Gaza has changed over time.

He spoke earlier. on turning Gaza into the "Riviera of the Middle East", with hotel resorts and the relocation of residents to Egypt or Jordan.

These ideas are not in this latest plan.

Reuters

But what about the details?

Who are the Palestinian technocrats?

And what do we know about the "Peace Committee"?

Trump's plan does not provide clear details about this international body, although the names of non-Palestinian figures believed to be under consideration for membership in it are circulating in the media.

There is no official confirmation, and Trump even recently said he was not sure Tony Blair was "popular enough for the role."

While traveling in the Middle East, Trump avoided giving a direct answer to BBC correspondent Tom Bateman's question about the multinational force, saying:

"They will be big, strong forces. They will not be used often, because people will behave properly."

BBC News

The "Peace Committee", which will oversee the transition, "will be ready as soon as possible", he added.

Upon his return, when asked about the two-state solution, Trump said:

"Many people prefer one state, some prefer two states. We'll see. I haven't commented on that yet."

Intermediaries

Julien De Rosa / AFP via Getty Images

Egypt and Qatar, the main mediators, supported an international framework known as the New York Declaration.

The United Nations adopted it as part of efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and move closer to a two-state solution.

The New York Declaration calls for the creation of a transitional administrative board in Gaza under Palestinian authority.

She emphasizes that the rule and application of law throughout the Palestinian territories, including Gaza, should rest with the Palestinian Authority.

This vision is consistent with statements by Egyptian and Qatari officials who link the future of Gaza to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Whether the Palestinian Authority gets a chance to prove how successful it can be in re-leading Gaza will depend on many factors beyond its current control.

Additional reporting: Hesham Chavish and Zakaria Ayad, BBC Monitoring and Andrew Webb, BBC World Service

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