Deadly attack on Bondi Beach On December 14, the world's attention was drawn to the Islamic State group after the Australian Prime Minister's statement that the attack appeared to be motivated by "the ideology of the Islamic State (IS)."
This Sunni Islamist militant group claimed responsibility for the shooting that killed 15 people.
However, police say they found "homemade" Islamic State flags in a vehicle found at the scene, along with improvised explosive devices.
A father and son have been identified as the suspected attackers.
Police killed the father at the scene, and the son was charged with 15 counts of murder.
The Sydney attack is a reminder that the Islamic State has not given up on trying to orchestrate or inspire attacks against Western targets.
This is all happening despite the fact that its influence was nipped in the bud after 2017, when it lost the bases of its "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq.
The Islamic State has also remained silent – despite its supporters sharing their enthusiasm online – over the attack in Syria that killed two American soldiers and a civilian the day before the Bondi Beach shooting.
The US says the killings in Syria were carried out by an Islamic State operative.
"We can't talk about the return of something that never really left," says Mina al-Lami, an expert on jihadism at BBC Monitoring.
She reminds that attacks should not be prematurely labeled as Islamic State operations, warning that doing so risks reinforcing the group's propaganda rather than reflecting its true capabilities.
Is the Islamic State still active?
At its peak, the Islamic State ruled vast swaths of Syria and Iraq, presenting itself as a functional state through systems of taxation, education, religious police, and healthcare.
However, it was territorially defeated in 2019 by a US-led coalition of more than 70 countries, which ended the caliphate's physical existence.
Al-Lami says the group's appeal has been further diminished by the loss of its founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed in a US raid in 2019.
Since then, none of its leaders have possessed a recognizable identity or public profile.
There are 3.000 Islamic State fighters in Syria and Iraq together today, according to data from the UN Security Council.
By comparison, at one point there were tens of thousands of foreign fighters flocking to join the group after it declared the establishment of a caliphate in 2014.
Al-Lami says another sign of the Islamic State's decline is the scale of its attacks.
This group claimed responsibility for several high-profile attacks in Syria, Iraq, and the West in the mid-2010s.
"It now relies mostly on small, hit-and-run attacks," she says, and the rare attacks in the West are mostly "inspired" by the Islamic State rather than centrally coordinated.
Last year, the Afghan wing of the Islamic State – known as the Khorasan Province (ISKP) – made global headlines after being linked to deadly attacks in Iran in January, which killed at least 100 people, and in Russia two months later, which killed nearly 150 people.
She is also suspected of planning attacks in Europe, most of which have been prevented.
This year, however, the ISKP was significantly weakened and had trouble carrying out attacks even in Afghanistan.
Most of the attacks carried out in his name are now in sub-Saharan Africa.
Prema Global Terrorism Index 2025 report, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Islamic State and its affiliates “remained the deadliest terrorist organization in 2024, responsible for 1.805 deaths in 22 countries.”
Al-Lami adds that the Islamic State has lost a good part of its propaganda power.
"They had expensive, elaborate propaganda videos and now they're having real trouble getting the footage out."
But the Islamic State continues to incite attacks through its own online media.
Al-Lami says it is unique in that it has "an army of online supporters, who are young, savvy with social media and have truly helped fill the hole that the group was left with in its propaganda."
They are active on platforms such as Facebook and Instagram in an attempt to reach young people.
BBC Monitoring analysts often come across manuals with "step-by-step instructions" on how to use a weapon, how to shoot, and how to fatally stab someone with a knife.
Although Al-Lami suspects that some of these posts come from experienced "media jihadists," she estimates that some are just "ordinary young people influenced by Islamic State propaganda and helping the group spread its message."
Is the Islamic State growing in Africa and Asia?
The loss of support in traditional bases in the Middle East meant that the Islamic State had to look for alternatives.
In South Asia, IS-Khorasan Province, or ISKP, is considered one of the most aggressive branches.
Positioned in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan, the UN estimates it has 2.000 fighters and continues to recruit new ones from other Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Meanwhile, the so-called Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP) – which covers Southeast Asia and is largely concentrated in the southern Philippines – has previously been responsible for a number of deadly attacks in the Philippines and Indonesia.
However, this branch has not claimed responsibility for any attacks this year.
Experts claim that his main focus is on Africa.
Adrian Stuni, a security expert at the Dutch International Counterterrorism Center, warns that in recent years, "the Islamic State has grown exponentially" on the continent.
"They have achieved this by exploiting security gaps in regions with weak governments, such as the Sahel (a region in North Africa) and West Africa, due to forced and voluntary withdrawals of Western militaries, regional instability, and cancelled funding for counterterrorism efforts."
According to the United Nations, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) could have 8.000 to 12.000 fighters.
Al-Lami says nine out of ten attacks carried out by the group this year were in sub-Saharan Africa.
She says the Islamic State is active in the Sahel and Somalia, where it has serious jihadist rivalry in the form of stronger branches of Al Qaeda.
However, she says it is strongest in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Mozambique.
In these countries, militants often attack Christian communities as well as military forces.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, she says, Islamic State affiliates have tried to impose a tax on non-Muslims in areas they frequently raid.
"The Islamic State claims that Christians in the Democratic Republic of Congo have three options: convert to Islam, pay the Islamic State a tax known as the Jizka, or be killed. In most cases, the militants don't give them that option. They just raid their villages and kill them," she adds.
Al-Lami says the Islamic State has been allowed to operate largely unchecked in Africa due to the lack of global media attention – something the group itself has complained about.
"Last year, the Islamic State was unhappy. It announced through an official channel: 'We're killing all these Christians in Africa and the Western media is racist. They don't care,'" she says.
But while the Islamic State is significantly active in Africa, Al-Lami says it is "not even close" to the strength it once had in Syria and Iraq.
"Nowhere in Africa does the Islamic State control territory the way it once did in the Middle East. Instead, it relies on hideouts and hit-and-run attacks."
What's next?
Dr Renad Mansour, a senior fellow at Chatham House, believes that the Islamic State is much weaker than it was in the past.
"A large part of the population that lived under the Islamic State suffered," he tells the BBC, adding that even in countries where there is disillusionment with the government, "there is not the same impetus or appeal that ISIS once had."
"Those roots aren't there now, so it's hard to imagine a caliphate rising in that way in the near future," he adds.
But he also warns that the Islamic State has the potential to grow in areas where there are multiple armed groups fighting for dominance.
Security expert Adrian Stuni says the biggest risk lies in how the international community responds to the Islamic State threat.
He warns that a "reactive approach" after a high-profile attack does not work, and that concentrated pressure from multiple countries is key.
"Sporadic bursts of attention are not enough against an adaptable enemy like the Islamic State and its evolving tactics," he says, adding that "the Islamic State thrives where there is neglect."
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