Liz Doucet: The government in Iran is facing its biggest challenge since the 1979 revolution.

Iran will not give in to US demands, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment, as this would mean Tehran crossing red lines that are woven into the very core of the theocracy's strategic doctrine.

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From the protest in Tehran held on January 8, Photo: Reuters

Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

13.01.2026. 20:58h

The Iranian authorities are facing the most serious challenge since the Islamic Revolution in the country in 1979.

Now security forces are responding fiercely, and the internet has been almost completely shut down.

A government response of this magnitude has not been seen in previous crises.

Many streets, which once echoed with angry cries against the regime, are now slowly quieting down.

"On Friday, January 9th, there were an incredible number of people, the crowd was huge and there was a lot of shooting."

"On Saturday night, January 10th, everything became much, much quieter," a Tehran resident told the BBC in Persian.

"If you go outside, it means you want to die," said an Iranian journalist.

This time, the internal turmoil was further fueled by a threat from abroad.

US President Donald Trump has reiterated the possibility of military intervention seven months after the United States (US) attacked... key nuclear facilities during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which weakened the regime.

In an analogy often used by the US president, this gave Iran "another card" to play.

Trump says he has invited Tehran to sit down at the negotiating table again.

However, Iran does not have a good hand right now, and Trump says he may still have to take some kind of action before any meeting, because negotiations will not be able to calm all the heat of these unrest.

Iran will not give in to US demands, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment, because that would mean Tehran would have to cross red lines that are woven into the very core of this theocracy's strategic doctrine.

Whatever the pressure at the moment, there are no signs that Iran's leaders are changing course.

"Their instinct is to tighten the noose, to try to survive this moment, and then see what happens next," says Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, who is the author of "Iran's Grand Strategy."

"Given their problems with the US, with Israel, with sanctions, even if they suppress these protests, they don't have much opportunity to improve the lives of Iranians."

This week could be decisive in terms of the further course of events - whether Iran and the wider region will be plunged into a new wave of military attacks and whether brute force will completely crush these protests, as has been the case in the past.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told diplomats in Tehran on January 12 that "the situation is now under complete control."

Outside, in broad daylight, the streets of Tehran were filled with crowds of people who had been called by the authorities to come out and reclaim the streets from the protesters.

Five days after the total communications blackout, an even more chilling image is still finding its way to the world via Starlink satellite communications terminals, reflecting the technical resourcefulness and courage of the Iranians.

Testimonies from doctors about hospitals overflowing with the wounded, chilling footage of makeshift open-air morgues with long rows of black body bags, voice messages sent to BBC journalists in Persian expressing shock and fear.

The numbers are growing.

In the last wave of unrest in 2022 and 2023, which lasted more than six months, human rights organizations recorded around 500 deaths and more than 20.000 arrests.

Now, in just a few weeks, reports indicate that the death toll is already much higher and that more than 20.000 people have been detained so far.

The government does not deny that bloodshed is taking place.

State television also shows footage of makeshift morgues, even admitting that some protesters were killed.

Watch the video of a row of black body bags in Iran

The streets of Iran were burning and government buildings were set on fire as the protesters' anger flared.

They are symbols of the system, and the government condemns attacks on public property as the work of "terrorists and rebels."

Now the legal language has become stricter, with the authorities saying that the "vandals" will be charged with "waging war against God" and will face the death penalty.

The regime places the main blame for the uprising in the country on foreign enemies, which is a code name for Israel and the USA.

This time, their accusation is further fueled by the clear scale of infiltration by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad during their 12-day war last year.

Every new unrest in Iran raises the same questions: how far-reaching are these protests, who is taking to the streets and squares, and how will the authorities respond?

This latest wave of unrest is unique in many ways.

It started in the most ordinary way.

Traders selling imported electronic devices in Tehran were shocked on December 28 by the sudden drop in the value of the national currency.

They closed their shops, went on strike, and called on others in the bazaar to join them.

The initial response from the authorities was swift and conciliatory.

President Masoud Pezeshkiyan He promised dialogue and acknowledged "legitimate demands" in a country where inflation is reaching almost 50 percent and the currency's decline is creating additional problems for ordinary people who are already struggling.

The new monthly aid, amounting to about seven dollars, was quickly paid into the bank accounts of all citizens to alleviate the situation at least a little.

Prices, however, rose further, and the unrest spread.

Within three weeks, Iranians were protesting everywhere – from poor provincial towns to major cities – demanding economic and political change.

There are no quick and easy solutions anymore, because the problem is the system itself.

Iran is broken by years of devastating international sanctions, mismanagement and corruption, deep anger at restrictions on social freedoms, and anguish over the cost of this protracted conflict with the West.

For now, it seems that the system is still holding up.

"The most important element still missing for the complete collapse of the system is the decision by the repressive forces that they no longer benefit from the regime and are no longer willing to kill for it," explains Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Before the outbreak of this crisis, it was known that the most powerful people in Iran's ruling circles were sharply divided on key issues: whether and how to renew negotiations with the US on a new nuclear agreement, as well as how to restore strategic deterrence after the blows inflicted on their military allies and political partners during the war in Gaza.

But the survival of the system, their system, is more important than anything.

Power remains in the hands of the ailing 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but he is surrounded by his most loyal defenders, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now has a decisive influence on the economy, politics and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It is known that the attention of the very top of the government is occupied by President Trump's almost daily threats.

They have also fueled widespread speculation about what the impact of any foreign intervention would be.

Military action could strengthen the protesters, but it could also have the opposite effect.

"The main impact could be to strengthen elite unity and counter divisions within the regime at a time of heightened vulnerability," says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House.

One of the most vocal Iranians calling on President Trump to intervene is the exiled former crown prince. Reza Pahlavi, whose father was deposed as Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

But his invitation, as well as his close ties to Israel, are causing controversy.

Other Iranians, from Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, who remains imprisoned in Iran, to award-winning director Jafar Panahi, argue that change must be peaceful and come from within the country.

Pahlavi has shown in the current unrest the ability to help ignite and shape the rebellion.

His calls early last week for unified chanting appeared to bring even more people out into the streets, despite the cold weather.

It is impossible to know how much support he has and whether this strong desire for change is leading some to cling tightly to the familiar symbol.

The pre-revolutionary Iranian flag, with the lion and the sun, flew again.

Pahlavi emphasizes that he does not want to restore the monarchy but to lead democratic change.

However, in the past, he has not proven to be a unifying factor in the divided Iranian diaspora.

Iranians, including those who continue to support the theocratic regime, are haunted by fears of ruin and chaos, financial distress, and more.

Some are thinking about reforms, not revolution.

History teaches us that when fiery emotions and force meet in the streets, change can come from above or from below.

It is always unpredictable and often dangerous.

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