Joe Tidy, BBC Cyber Security,
Farshad Bayan, BBC Persian
It has been 10 days since one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in Iran, with 92 million people cut off from all internet service and even disrupting phone calls and text messages.
The Iranian government shut down all services on January 8th, in order to suppressed the rebellion and prevented international criticism of the way the demonstrations were suppressed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was shut down in response to what he called "terrorist operations" directed from outside.
The government has not said when it will restore internet access, but reports suggest that, behind the scenes, authorities may be making plans to permanently restrict it.
The news portal IranWire reported on January 15 that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters that access to the international network would not be available until at least the Iranian New Year, or the end of March.
Internet Freedom Observers at Filter Watch (FilterWatch) that the government is rapidly introducing new systems and rules to disconnect Iran from the international internet.
"International internet access is not expected to reopen, and even if it does, users' access to the international internet will never return to its previous form," Filter Watch writes, citing an unnamed government source.
While the BBC cannot independently confirm this report or the timeline of its implementation, journalists who spoke to the BBC in Persian said they were told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.
From temporary disappearance to 'communication black hole'
Iran has had a tight grip on the internet for years - most Western social media networks and platforms have been blocked, as have foreign news portals, such as the BBC.
However, many people have managed to access popular apps like Instagram with the help of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Internet freedom activists from the organization AccessNow say that Iran has used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal suppression of demonstrations, as seen in the country-wide internet shutdowns during protests in November 2019 and September 2022.
Based on Kentik's traffic data, the increase in incoming information flow to Iran began at 3:42 a.m. local time on January 17.
However, the current level of connectivity remains extremely limited, reducing to only about 0,2 percent of the traffic volume compared to before the internet shutdown on January 8th.
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There were also blackouts during The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025.
However, the current internet outage is lasting longer than any previous one.
Organization AccessNow She said that it was "imperative" to restore full internet access.
"Limiting access to these basic services not only endangers lives, but also encourages the government to hide and evade accountability for human rights violations," the statement said.
There are already reports that the shutdown has caused severe consequences for people and their ability to earn a living, with e-commerce being particularly affected by these measures.
As of January 18, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates that more than 3.300 confirmed deaths of protesters have been recorded, with another 4.380 under review.
She also reported that the number of arrests in 187 cities had reached 24.266.
The true number of those killed and detained is believed to be significantly higher, but due to the lack of internet access, this data cannot be independently confirmed.
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Internet monitoring project Filter Watch says this latest shutdown heralds more extreme "digital isolation" and increased surveillance of what is said, sent or viewed online.
Authorities in Tehran are moving towards a cascading system in which access to the global internet will no longer be automatic, but subject to approval, Amir Rashidi, director of cybersecurity and digital rights at the Mian Group, which runs Filter Watch, told the BBC.
Access will be authorized through a registration and verification process, he expects.
The technical infrastructure for such a system has been in place for years, he adds.
Watch the video: What happens when our internet is turned off
Who decides about the internet?
According to Filter Watch, these plans are not discussed publicly, and key decisions are increasingly concentrated within security bodies rather than civilian ministries.
Protecting Iran from cyberattacks, of which there have been many large and damaging examples in recent years, could be another motivation for extreme steps.
However, analysts warn that the plans may not be fully implemented or could be applied unevenly due to internet power dynamics and broader economic and technical pressures.
Amir Rashidi points out that the risks to internet providers, coupled with the ability of users to adapt or migrate to alternative platforms, may further complicate the implementation of measures.
If Iran implements the reported plans, it will follow similar systems in Russia and China.
China is a world leader in internet control, not only in its massive state censorship of online conversations, but also in what people can access abroad.
The so-called Great Firewall of China blocks most of the world's internet from its residents, and all Western apps like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube cannot be accessed without a VPN.
In addition, they are increasingly difficult to use.
In 2019, Russia began testing a massive plan to create a similar system called Ru-net.
But unlike China, which built state control into the internet as it expanded decades ago, Russia has had to subsequently embed state control into complex systems.
Russia will go a step further than China and plans to disconnect from the global grid via a "safety switch", which will be used in times of crisis.
The system will allow internal internet traffic and keep the country active online, but with no traffic going out or in - effectively a true digital border.
But he has yet to be fully tested.
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What is the future of the internet in Iran?
If these reports are accurate, it appears that Iran is planning a quasi-combination of permanent Chinese and Russian control of the internet.
"There appear to be initiatives in Iran to isolate everyone from electronic access unless the government approves," says computer security expert Alan Woodward of the University of Surrey in the UK, after analyzing reports of Iranian plans.
He believes the Iranian regime has likely put those long-term plans into motion, using the current internet outage as a pretext to make technical changes and orders now, while everything is still off.
Amir Rashidi says the issue is no longer technical, but political, arguing that the full implementation of such systems now depends solely on political will.
Starlink and other “internet from space” services, known as Low Earth Orbit (LEO), also complicate control for Iran during protests.
LEO internet services allow users to bypass all censorship and blackouts by connecting directly to satellites.
The government has managed to block and disrupt some Starlink users, but it has been confirmed to the BBC that other terminals remain operational, after the company updated its software to bypass the government's blocking attempts.
This service, owned by Elon Musk, has also decided not to charge a subscription fee for Iranian users.
Despite the growing number of tools used by repressive regimes, Woodward is surprisingly optimistic about the future of the internet.
He cites advances with LEO and the fact that many phones today can use satellites - even when the internet is down - for services like SOS messages.
There are also new applications that use mesh networks relying on Bluetooth, which can provide connectivity where there is none.
“It is almost inevitable that internet access will one day become truly universal, but it will always be a game of cat and mouse for repressive regimes,” says Woodward.
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