Munich's city center is best known for its chic shops and expensive sports cars, but currently its streets are decorated with posters advertising next-generation drones.
"The construction of European security is underway," reads the slogan on a striking collage of elegant black-and-white photographs mounted across a scaffolding on a church in one of Munich's most famous pedestrian streets.
Just a few years ago, such an open public display of military power would have been unthinkable here, but the world is changing rapidly, including Germany.
The southern state of Bavaria has become Germany's leading center for defense technology, focusing on artificial intelligence, drones and aerospace.
People in Germany, like most other Europeans, say they feel increasingly unprotected and squeezed between an expansionist Russia and an economically aggressive China to the east, and an increasingly unpredictable, once closest ally, the United States (US) to the west.
More than two-thirds of Europeans (68 percent) believe that their country is exposed to threats, according to a recent survey by Eurobarometer, a sector within the European Commission that analyzes public opinion surveys.
Last fall, Germany's Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief warned for the first time since the Cold War that war was no longer "unlikely."
While the office emphasizes that Germany is a safe country, it also advises residents to keep a three to 10-day supply of food at home.
Just in case.
Since the US suspended new direct aid to Ukraine, Germany is now the single largest provider of military and other aid to Kiev.
Public opinion polls show that voters in Germany want better protection in their country as well.
The question for Germany, as well as for other countries in Europe, is whether traditional alliances with the US within NATO and the European Union are sufficient, or whether they should also establish other partnerships through ad hoc (quickly) coalitions with other like-minded countries such as Australia, South Korea and Japan?
Insecure relationships
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told me that by 2029, Germany's defense budget will be larger than Britain's and France's combined.
He says the 150 billion euros Germany plans to spend on defense is an "incredible amount."
This is something the US notices and appreciates, he said.
Donald Trump is not the first American president to demand that Europe do more for its own security, although his tone is noticeably more threatening than that of his predecessors.
The uncertainty of transatlantic relations was the main topic of the Munich Security Conference held last weekend.
It is the largest annual defense gathering in the world, bringing together country leaders, security experts, and representatives of the defense industry.
While such speech-filled gatherings can easily be dismissed as empty talk, in the turbulent times we live in they can make a difference, especially the informal private conversations of global decision-makers, away from the cameras.
At this year's conference, the most anticipated address, and some even with trepidation, was the speech by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represented the Trump administration.
Anticipating the address, European leaders and top diplomats were extremely tense and worried.
But why did a simple 30-minute speech have such significance?
Because in the last 80 years, since the end of World War II, relations between Europe and the US have never been as damaged as they are now.
And this is not a fight between friends that will be easily overcome.
Denmark is still furious
In the little more than 12 months since Trump returned to the White House, the US president has occasionally insulted and undermined European leaders, imposed high tariffs on their exports, and, most shockingly for NATO allies, threatened Denmark's sovereignty over its territory of Greenland, refusing for some time to rule out the possibility of taking the island by force.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who is clearly still furious, said that Trump's plans regarding Greenland remained "the same," despite trilateral negotiations between representatives of Greenland, the US and Denmark.
Trump has for now ruled out the possibility of seizing Greenland by military force and has backed off (at least temporarily) from imposing economic sanctions on allies, including the United Kingdom (UK), France and Germany, which opposed US plans to take over the Arctic island.
However, transatlantic trust has been seriously damaged.
European powers see Trump as a highly transactional president who unhesitatingly uses security and economic relationships with his closest allies to get what he wants.
Shortly before he was elected president for the second time, for example, he told Europeans that the US would not protect countries that did not allocate sufficient resources for defense.
The truth is, however, that Europe has relied on American protection for decades.
Critics in the US argue that European countries have been able to maintain generous social systems for decades, while Washington has borne the costs of security.
"We are used to strong support from the US," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told me on February 14.
"We got used to our comfort zone where we lived."
"That time has passed, it has definitely passed."
"Washington was right."
But the Greenland crisis and other moves by the Trump administration, such as temporarily suspending intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces last March, leaving them "blind" on the battlefield, in order to pressure Kiev to begin peace talks with Moscow, have left deep scars and created a worrying distrust in transatlantic relations.
This caused tension and anxiety in Munich ahead of Rubio's appearance on stage.
In the end, his words were tinged with a sense of historical alliance.
"We want a strong Europe," he said.
"The two great wars of the last century serve as a constant reminder that our destiny, ultimately, has always been and always will be intertwined with yours."
I was struck by how many European politicians in the audience responded to the warmth of his words, standing up to applaud the American Secretary of State.
Their relief was obvious that he did not threaten or criticize Europe as he did. US Vice President J.D. Vance at last year's Munich conference.
But for those who listened carefully, Rubio's speech was dedicated to topics that are important to the Trump administration and difficult for many European leaders to accept.
Among these topics are opposition to climate change mitigation measures, skepticism towards globalization, multilateralism, and migration, as well as support for building a new era of Christian Western civilization.
Rubio was clear: The US is not interested in allies who cling to the old status quo.
Washington wants to build a new path, ideally together with Europe, but only if it shares the same values with the US.
This American offer of close partnership was conditional and without any willingness to compromise.
"A bit like a (psychologically) abusive partner," said one European diplomat, speaking openly on condition of anonymity.
"He reminded Europe how great transatlantic relations once were, but then switched to the language of coercion: If you want things to be good between us in the future, you have to do as I say!"
Another diplomat pointed out that, despite the talk of shared values, it is significant that of all the European countries he could have visited after his speech in Germany, Rubio chose to go to Slovakia and Hungary before returning to the US.
In Brussels, these two countries are considered the most problematic EU members, with Eurosceptic and nationalist prime ministers who oppose sending military aid to Ukraine and have a tough stance on migration.
A fragile new relationship
Marco Rubio's softer tone has also divided European leaders, who recently, during the height of the Greenland crisis last month, spoke unanimously in defense of Denmark.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pointed to the currently fragile relations with the US, despite Rubio's softer words.
"Some boundaries have been crossed and there's no going back," she said.
"Europeans have undergone shock therapy."
But will some European countries use the warmth in Rubio's speech as an excuse not to rush to increase military spending, as promised?
The budgets of most European governments are already overstretched, and voters typically prioritize living costs over defense spending.
Rachel Elehus, director general of the defense think tank RUSI, told me she sees the rift across the continent deepening.
On one side are the Nordic and Baltic states that are geographically close to Russia, as well as Germany and the Netherlands, which invest heavily in defense, she says.
And in southern Europe, there is, for example, Spain, which is unapologetic about refusing to increase its military budget to the level demanded by Donald Trump, Elehus adds.
France and the UK have verbally committed to increasing military spending, but they are still looking for a "political band-aid" to help them explain the consequences to voters - higher taxes, less social spending or more borrowing, she says.
"Europeans should have gotten to work yesterday," she says.
"They have five to 10 years to stand on their own two feet in terms of conventional defense capabilities."
Last week, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby made a remarkably clear statement at a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels: Europe is no longer the US priority, but the Indo-Pacific.
"Under President Trump's leadership, we are once again prioritizing the defense of our homeland and the protection of our interests in our hemisphere," he said.
Although he stressed that the US remains committed to the NATO pact's collective defense clause, according to which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, Colby emphasized that the US will reduce its capabilities in Europe, where it will have a "limited and focused" presence.
Europe must become a partner, not a dependent, he said, calling for a new "NATO 3.0."
The old world order in which the West is the center of the world has faded, but the Munich meeting last week made it clear that what comes next for Europe and the US is still quite uncertain.
Marco Rubio called for a new era of Western civilization, Colby wants a reformed NATO, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for a new version of the Western alliance in Munich.
Watch the video: The struggle of world superpowers for control of the Arctic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfjIgUFIa6Y
Starmer's nuanced approach
Unlike Rubio's insistence on greater national sovereignty, Starmer spoke in favor of deeper integration between the UK and Europe in the field of defense to reduce the cost of rearmament, but stressed that this did not mean the UK was turning its back on the US.
Sophia Gaston, a national security expert at King's College London, told me that in Munich, Strummer managed to articulate the nuances of Britain's strategic position more clearly.
"Other allies in Europe may be more willing to talk about distancing themselves from Washington, but for Britain there remains a strategic imperative to balance within the transatlantic relationship," she says.
"There will be times when Britain will have to make difficult decisions, and Starmer seemed more prepared to face that reality."
"The key really lies in a deep understanding of the national interest and our instruments of power and influence."
"It requires a much more competitive approach, which has not always felt natural to Britain, which has traditionally conducted diplomacy largely in an elegant and invisible way, relying on consensus."
In these fast-paced and unpredictable times, European leaders are increasingly resorting to individual coalitions, in addition to traditional organizations such as NATO and the European Union, which are large and often slower to respond.
These groups also include non-European countries.
Take, for example, the so-called Coalition of the Willing, a group of countries led by the UK and France, which was established to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty in the event of a peace agreement with Russia.
The coalition meetings were attended by Turkey, New Zealand and Australia.
Canada is increasingly cooperating with Nordic and Baltic states, which it says face similar geopolitical challenges and share common values, and want to strengthen stability and deterrence from the Baltic Sea, across northern Europe and the North Atlantic, Greenland and the Canadian Arctic.
A European official jokingly told me that Canada is "becoming more European every day."
Also, Japan and South Korea are increasingly seen as part of a "family of like-minded people," he added.
Not just defense
Such ad hoc coalitions are not limited to defense.
French President Emmanuel Macron has long called for Europe to increase what he calls strategic autonomy, not only in terms of traditional security, but also energy security, supply chains and new technologies.
In Munich, he recommended that Europe "reduce the risk" of dependence on external powers.
This weekend, even the President of the European Commission admitted that if the EU fails to improve competitiveness quickly enough, "a group of member states will have to move forward on their own."
Attempts by smaller groups of European powers to cooperate to advance Europe's strategic independence are not always successful.
An example is the current dispute between France and Germany over a joint attempt to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft.
It can also be said that, despite all the talk about building European independence, the conference in Mignon was also a reminder of how much Europe still depends on American security support - from the nuclear umbrella to intelligence sharing and command and control structures.
It also showed how far Europe lags behind the US in high-tech innovations.
But unlike the short-term mechanisms designed to "survive" Donald Trump, the changes we are witnessing in Europe, including closer alliances with non-European countries, are likely to be more long-lasting.
The world now seems to be playing by the rules of great power politics.
Even a slow-moving Europe must adapt.
Main photo: AFP/Getty Images
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