Daniel Bush, Washington Correspondent
By attacking Iran and assassinating the regime's supreme leader, US President Donald Trump has made a big bet: that he can succeed where previous presidents have failed by using American military power to reshape the Middle East.
Trump will take credit for an incredible triumph if the US manages to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program and bring about regime change in Tehran using only air strikes, even if there seems to be no clear plan from Washington for what would come after the Islamic Republic.
But if the military strikes, dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the Pentagon, fail or spark a wider regional conflagration that requires continued American engagement, Trump could damage his legacy as well as Republicans' chances of retaining control of Congress in the November midterm elections.
The president hinted at the stakes in remarks he made early Saturday morning as he announced the start of a military operation in Iran.
"America's heroes may be lost," Trump said.
He argued that this price would have to be paid to damage the regime that he claims has caused chaos throughout the Middle East since it took power in 1979.
"For forty-seven years, the Iranian regime has chanted, 'Death to America,'" Trump said.
He later added: "We will not tolerate this any longer."
But as the world waits to find out what the Iranian regime will do after the death of its supreme leader, it remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to avoid a prolonged military operation.
It also remains an open question whether he can convince the American public - and especially his MAGA base, which massively opposes American interventions abroad - to support another incursion into the Middle East.
This is a watershed moment for Trump, who returned to office a little over a year ago promising to end so-called "forever wars" such as those America fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, but instead has launched military operations in Iran, Venezuela and Syria, among other countries.
The US and Israeli bombing came after the White House warned that attacks would follow unless the regime agreed to a deal to abandon its nuclear weapons program, stop producing ballistic missiles and no longer support proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
After amassing a massive military force in the region, Trump spent Friday night overseeing the attack as it unfolded alongside top advisers at his luxury Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
In Washington, Vice President J.D. Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other senior administration officials gathered in the White House Situation Room, according to a source familiar with the matter, and joined a conference call with Trump to monitor the bombing in real time.
Khamenei's assassination represents a major escalation, but analysts warn that it could spiral out of Trump's control.
"The die has been cast and America must now go all the way to bring about regime change."
“The problem is that you can’t achieve this without a ground military presence on the ground,” said Muhammad Hafez, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.
Iran's retaliatory strikes on a number of US allies in the region - Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and others - have suggested that the regime plans to retaliate more aggressively than it did after the US attack on the country last year, he added.
"The Iranian regime's strategy will be to start a regional conflict that will affect the world economy as well as the US economy, and that will not be good for Trump," said Hafez, an expert on Islamist political violence and Middle East politics.
"That could lead to chaos."
A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could affect Trump's other priorities, such as rebuilding Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war and strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia.
He could also alienate supporters at home at a time when his support is taking a hard hit due to voter dissatisfaction with the high cost of living and other domestic problems.
In recent weeks, several senior administration officials have expressed concerns about a major military operation in Iran, according to a former senior administration official from Trump's first term who remains close to the team and has insight into how domestic politics are conducted.
Rumor has it that there have been private divisions as Trump has publicly threatened to attack Iran and ordered the largest buildup of US military forces in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Trump appeared confident about the mission on Saturday after deciding to launch the attack, ending weeks of speculation about a possible operation.
But it also sent conflicting signals that raised new questions about what America's war goals were.
"I can drag it out and take the whole thing or I can end it in two or three days" and keep the threat of new attacks on the table, Trump told Axios.
He later said on social media that "heavy and precisely targeted bombing will continue unabated throughout the week or as long as necessary."
The comments highlighted what critics say is Trump's improvisational approach to foreign policy and his lack of interest in laying the groundwork for House members and the public to engage before launching military strikes.
It's the same unconventional approach that the president's allies and supporters say has enabled him to rack up a string of successes, including a negotiated ceasefire in Gaza and increased European financial participation in NATO.
Trump has done little upfront to explain to the American public why it is in their interest to start a war with Iran.
The president could have used his State of the Union Address last week to make his case, but he chose not to.
The president launched a military operation without first seeking Congressional approval for it.
But most Republicans publicly supported the action on Saturday.
"Iran is facing grave consequences for its own evil actions," House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a statement.
"President Trump and the administration have made every effort possible to reach a peaceful and diplomatic solution in response to the Iranian regime's continued nuclear ambitions and development, terrorism, and the murder of Americans - and even their own people."
But the lack of coordination with Congress has angered Democrats and some in Trump's own party who oppose the US airstrikes.
"Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war that the American people do not want," former Vice President and Democratic candidate for the 2024 election Kamala Harris said in a statement.
She added: "Our troops are being put in danger for the purposes of a war of Trump's personal choosing."
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the administration had not “presented key details about the scale and immediacy of the threat” to Congress and the American people.
"President Trump's erratic cycles of islanding countries and risking wider conflict are not a sustainable strategy," he said.
The fierce reactions from Democrats on Saturday suggested that Trump may be forced to engage in political combat at home as he wages a new war in the Middle East, as party primaries begin ahead of the November midterm elections.
The Democratic caucus in Congress will hold a meeting Sunday night to discuss the response to the military campaign, according to two sources who spoke about the background to the discussion of the plans.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats will continue to push for a vote next week on a resolution that would curb Trump's war powers in Iran.
"It's easy to arrest the leader of another country, like in Venezuela, but what do you do in the days that follow?" Jeffries said.
The administration "has not clearly articulated a strategy or goal."
Trump, meanwhile, told NBC earlier Saturday, referring to Iran: "At some point, they're going to call me and ask me who I'd like as leader. And I'm just being a little sarcastic when I say that."
And while those midterm elections in November will be crucial in defining what Trump can accomplish during the rest of his term, just as past presidents have found, his decision to launch an unprecedented military campaign in the Middle East could prove even more significant in shaping his legacy.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUZGBEgv18s&t=86s
- Death toll in Middle East rises, Trump says operation 'going very well'
- Iran responds to attacks: Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi targeted
- Ayatollah Khamenei: How Iran's Supreme Leader held power with an iron grip
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