Now that Donald Trump has been elected as the President of the USA, the end of what used to be called "the West" has become practically inevitable. That term denoted the transatlantic world, born in the XNUMXth century on the hotbed of two world wars, the world that revised the international order during the forty-year cold war and dominated the entire planet - until now.
The West should not be confused with "Western civilization". And although the culture, norms and prevailing religion of the West in a broad sense stem from Western civilization, over time it has turned into something different from it. The character of Western civilization was formed over many centuries in the Mediterranean region (although the parts of Europe north of the Alps often made an important contribution to its development). The West, on the other hand, has a transatlantic character and is a child of the XNUMXth century.
The First World War was initially a conflict between the Central Powers and the Entente, which included Great Britain, France and Russia. The war turned into a world war only in 1917, when the United States joined the fighting. It was at that moment that what we now call the West began to form.
It can be said that the West got a "birth certificate" during the Second World War. In August 1941, after Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and US President Franklin D. Roosevelt met on a warship off the coast of Newfoundland and signed the Atlantic Charter, an agreement that would later form the basis of NATO. For four decades, that agreement enabled an alliance of independent democracies with shared values and a market economy to counter the Soviet threat and has ensured peace in Europe to this day.
In a deeper sense, the West was formed on America's obligation to stand up for its allies. The Western order cannot exist if the US does not play that important role, which they can now renounce under Trump's mandate. That is why the future of the West itself is at stake.
No one can be sure what the election of Trump will mean for American democracy or what he will do when he takes office. First of all, his presidency will have destructive consequences for American domestic and foreign policy. Trump won the presidential election by trampling practically all the unwritten rules of American politics. He defeated not only Hillary Clinton, but also the Republican Party establishment. There is little reason to assume that on January 20 he will suddenly abandon his winning strategy.
We can safely assume that Trump will stick firmly to his promise to "make America great again"; it will be the basis of his rule, no matter what. The former president of the United States, Ronald Reagan, also made such a promise, but he did so when the US, still in the Cold War, could allow itself the position of an empire. Reagan implemented modernization on such a scale that it eventually led to the collapse of the USSR; he also set the stage for America's economic boom by significantly increasing the public debt.
Trump, however, cannot allow himself an imperial approach. On the contrary, during the election campaign he constantly criticized America's pointless wars in the Middle East; and the ardent desire of his supporters is for America to renounce its role as a global leader and leave the world arena. America, moving towards isolationist nationalism, will remain the most powerful country in the world; but it will no longer guarantee the security of Western countries or protect the international order, based on free trade and globalization.
The only questions that remain now are - how quickly will US policy be implemented and how radical will these changes be. Trump has already promised to withdraw from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership - a decision that will be a gift to China, whether Trump realizes it or not. He can give China another gift: reducing the US presence in the South China Sea. China may find itself in the role of the new guarantor of global free trade - and, possibly, the new world leader in the fight against climate change.
As for the war in Syria, Trump can simply hand that devastated country to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran on a platter. From a practical point of view, this would represent a disruption of the balance of power in the Middle East with serious consequences far beyond the borders of the region; on the moral side - it would be a cruel betrayal of the Syrian opposition and a boon for Syrian President Assad.
And if Trump gives priority to Putin in the Middle East, then the question arises of what he will do in relation to Ukraine, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Should we expect the recognition of Putin's new de facto sphere of influence at some "Yalta II"?
The new course defined by Trump for the USA is already predictable; we just don't know how fast the ship will sail. Much will depend on the opposition (both Democrats and Republicans) that Trump will face in the US Congress, and also on the moderate influence of the majority of Americans who did not vote for him.
But we should have no illusions: Europe is too weak and divided to take the place of the US in a strategic sense, and without the leadership of the United States the West cannot survive. In this way, the Western world in the form known to practically everyone living today will almost certainly die before our eyes.
And then, what next? China, no doubt, is ready to take America's place. And in Europe, the graves of nationalism have been opened; in time, the demons from them will once again attack the continent - and the entire world.
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