This year and next, voters in leading Western democracies will make decisions that could fundamentally change the West - and the entire world - as we have known it for many decades. Some of those decisions have, in fact, already been made, the most important example being the June vote in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.
Meanwhile, it is quite certain that Donald Trump in the USA and Marine Le Pen in France can win the upcoming elections in their respective countries. A year ago, predicting the victory of any of these candidates would have been considered absurd; today we have to admit that these scenarios are quite possible.
The soundboards of the Western world have begun to shift, and many are belatedly realizing the potential consequences of those movements. After the referendum in Great Britain on leaving the EU, we began to understand all this better.
Britain's decision is actually a decision against the accepted order of existence of Europe based on integration, cooperation, common market and legislation. That decision was made with growing internal and external pressure on the already accepted structure of Europe. Internal - nationalism gained strength in almost all member countries; external - Russia began to play the role of a great power in politics and aspires to the Eurasian Union - a euphemism for the restoration of Russian dominance in Eastern Europe, as an alternative to the EU.
Both powers threaten the structure of peace in the EU and that bloc will weaken even more without Britain, its traditional guarantor of stability. The European Union is the backbone of European-Western integration; its weakening may lead to the reorientation of Western Europe to the East.
Such an outcome becomes even more likely if Americans elect Trump, who is openly enthusiastic about Russian President Vladimir Putin and would give Russia the role of a major power in politics to the detriment of European and transatlantic ties. Such a Yalta 2.0 would contribute to the growth of anti-Americanism in Europe and would cause geopolitical damage to the West.
In the same way, the victory of the ultra-rightist, nationalist Le Pen next spring would mean that France does not accept Europe either. Considering France's role as one of the cornerstones of the European Union (along with Germany), the election of Le Pen would most likely mark the end of the Union itself.
If Britain and the US take a turn towards a new isolationism and if France abandons Europe for nationalism, the Western world will become unrecognizable. It will no longer be a stronghold of stability, and Europe will slide into endless chaos.
In that scenario, many will focus their attention on Germany, the largest economy in Europe. But even though it would be Germany that would pay the highest political and economic price in the event of the disintegration of the EU - its interests are too intertwined with those of the EU - no one should hope for the re-nationalization of Germany. We all know the destruction and misfortune it can bring to the continent.
Geopolitically, Germany could become a "man at the crossroads". While France is unequivocally a Western, Atlantic and Mediterranean country, Germany has historically vacillated between East and West. In fact, this fact was for a long time a basic element of the existence of the German Reich. The question of East or West was not finally resolved until the complete defeat of Germany in 1945. After the formation of the Federal Republic in 1949, German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer chose the West.
Adenauer had witnessed the full extent of German tragedy - including two world wars and the collapse of the Weimar Republic - and believed that the young Federal Republic's ties to the West were more important than German unification. He was of the opinion that Germany must stop playing the role of "man at the crossroads", that it must end its isolation by irreversibly uniting with the security and economic institutions of the West.
The post-war Franco-German rapprochement and united Europe under the umbrella of the European Community were mandatory elements of Germany's orientation towards the West. Without it, Germany could return to a strategically neutral zone, which would put Europe at risk, fuel Russia's dangerous illusions, and force Germany itself to deal with the serious problems facing the continent.
The geopolitical orientation of Germany will be the main issue in next year's general elections. If German Chancellor Angela Merkel is ousted by her own party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), over immigration policy, the alliance is likely to move to the right to win back voters it lost to the populist and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
However, any move by the CDU towards cooperation with the AfD or recognition of the validity of the party's arguments will be a problem for the CDU. AfD is a party of German right-wing nationalists (and ultra-rightists) who want the country to return to the crossroads and establish closer relations with Russia. Cooperation between the CDU and the AfD would be a betrayal of Adenauer's legacy and carry the same weight as a return to the last period of the Bonn Republic.
In addition, there is a similar danger on the other side, because any putative CDU-AfD coalition would have to rely on Die Linke (Left Party) where some leaders very much want what the AfD does: closer relations with Russia or an indefinite or no integration with the West.
Everyone hopes that we will avoid that tragic future and that Merkel will remain in her cabinet after 2017. The future of Germany, Europe and the West may depend on it.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany and Vice-Chancellor 1998-2005; he is one of the founders of the German Green Party, which he led for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016.
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