Starting in 2009, when the financial crisis (started in America in 2008) shook the entire Eurozone to its foundations, crisis management became a new reality in Europe. One crisis after another is emerging in Europe and it doesn't seem like it will end soon.
Europe has survived the financial crisis, the Greek crisis, the Ukrainian crisis, and since the summer of 2015 it has also been experiencing the refugee crisis. And now, as the referendum in Britain, one of the strongest EU member states in economic and military terms, is approaching, where the question of leaving the EU (christened Brexit) will be asked, Europe may soon find itself facing a crisis of division.
Indeed, a crisis of distrust has developed in many member states towards their neighbors in the EU and its institutions. This fuels the revitalization of nationalist political parties and ideas and at the same time weakens European solidarity. The renationalization of Europe is gaining momentum, and that makes this crisis the most dangerous because it threatens to collapse from within.
The political leaders of the EU - the heads of state and government of the member countries, as well as the leaders of the European Council and the European Commission - made a fateful decision in the wake of the financial crisis: they gave priority to managing the crisis, rather than working out the concept of the organization of Europe and the strategy for its implementation.
The strategic management of Europe would require necessary compromises that would undoubtedly involve political risks in all member states. Instead, EU leaders decided to let the various crises do all the work for them, and placed all their hopes in the force of opportunity. But this approach, whose source is cowardice and an inappropriate trick, also had its price: the EU, which operates only in crisis mode, becomes for its citizens a prototype of incompetence that is not worthy of their trust and no longer represents a solution to the problems of the old continent, but one of his problems.
After almost six decades of successful integration, Europe has become a key element of everyday life - political, economic, institutional and legal reality. But all these manifestations of Europe depend on the vitality of its basic idea, its soul. If that idea dies in the citizens and peoples of Europe, the end of the EU will come and it won't be an explosion, but a long, painful whine.
It cannot go on like this because the stake is too high: the future of our continent in a world of rapid changes. The policy of small steps is now insufficient. Without an innovative conception of the organization of Europe and an effective approach to resolving crisis situations, new (and old) nationalists on the continent will continue to grow stronger and will become a threat to the entire project of peaceful integration based on the rule of law.
The Brexit referendum will show the way for both Britain and the European Union as a whole. After it, we will either have sighs of relief (which I hope for) or a cataclysm that will shake the EU to its foundations and bring disaster to Britain. But, regardless of the decision of the English, numerous crises in Europe require resolution.
The financial crisis is not over at all; it just took on a new political form. Portugal, Spain and Ireland have shown that the democratic majority is no longer willing to put up with austerity policies with their "swim or sink" approach. And the crisis in Greece is once again reaching a boiling point.
The Euro may not survive. Despite signs of a mild economic recovery in the eurozone, the rift between Germany and most other eurozone countries is widening and deepening. No one mentions convergence in the monetary union anymore, and there has been no discussion about it for a long time.
And it is more than obvious that with the fall of the euro, the entire European project would be closer to collapse. European leaders know that the euro, as before, is not immune from the crisis, regardless of the technical improvements achieved during the previous crisis. And it will not be protected until a renewed grand compromise is reached between Germany and other eurozone countries. In practice, this would mean reforming the Eurozone on the basis of deep political integration, which obviously cannot be called a simple task.
All this also applies to the common security of the EU, the protection of external borders and the reform of the policy towards refugees. Here, effective political leadership will also need an innovative conception of the organization of a united Europe in the XNUMXst century - what it can and should provide, how it should be formed and what institutions and powers it needs for that.
Europe has no reason to fear a crisis. They force everyone to move and give the EU the possibility to go further and become stronger, if it is acted upon without considering the accompanying political risks.
After Britain has its say in June, Europe must give its answer. That answer must be bold and must represent the conception of the organization and realistic solutions. Nationalism is not the answer. Only true Europeans can ensure a peaceful and prosperous future for Europe.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, which he led for more than 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016.
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