Politically, 2019 will be an extremely important year for the European Union. Great Britain is getting closer to exiting the EU on March 29, 2019, and after the May elections for the European Parliament, there will be changes at the head of almost all the Union's leading institutions. Therefore, depending on the distribution of seats in the new composition of the parliament, Europe may witness a complete regrouping of forces among the EU countries, within the EU institutions and between the European Parliament and the EU countries.
The new distribution of forces within the EU institutions will take place mainly in the form of personnel issues. New presidents of the European Commission, the European Council and the European Central Bank will be appointed, as well as the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security. If nationalist Eurosceptic parties become the largest faction in the European Parliament, these appointments will completely show a sharp break with the past.
The countries of the European Union are now divided as never before, even on the most fundamental issues concerning the European project. The broad consensus that existed in the past is being replaced by an awakened nationalism. In addition, the East is increasingly turning against the West, and the North against the South. There is reason to fear that these growing differences will be reflected in the new composition of the parliament, which will make it difficult (or completely impossible) to form a ruling majority.
The current de facto grand coalition of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) and the Advanced Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) will most likely not survive the next elections. Partly because S&D is in a deep (even existential) crisis in many European countries. In addition, new players entered the scene, including the centrist party of French President E. Markon "Republic on the Move" and several parties of radical Eurosceptics and nationalists.
If we take into account the hitherto unprecedented rise of nationalist parties in this election cycle, ordinary formal problems in the European election campaign will go into the background. It will be a dispute about Europe and the future of European democracy. Recent events in a number of EU countries challenge fundamental EU principles such as the rule of law and the separation of powers. The fate of democratic institutions, as well as issues of European solidarity and sovereignty, will be decided in those elections.
Do we need to say that the elections for the European Parliament will have a great impact on the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world. The current president of the USA shows such contempt for the EU that many have started talking about the "end of the West". Russia, with its growing revanchism, is waging wars on the European periphery and in Syria. Turkish President Recep Erdogan has led his country down the path of authoritarianism. And China wants to be recognized as a global power.
Worst of all is the recent decision of US President Donald Trump to withdraw his country from the 1987 Treaty on the Destruction of Intermediate and Short-Range Missiles, signed with Russia, as it creates the danger of a new arms race. Everything happened at a time when the climate crisis is escalating and the beginning of the global race for dominance in the sphere of artificial intelligence (while the possible risks of it are not yet fully understood).
Against this dark background, the question arises - what will happen to Europe. Will the Europeans be able to preserve their European sovereignty, or will the self-inflicted fragmentation increase their dependence on other powers?
Parties advocating for the EU must place the question of Europe's place in the world as central in the upcoming campaign for the elections to the European Parliament. Otherwise, he will suffer a heavy defeat at the hands of the new nationalists. Nationalists want to return to the past; the task of the West European forces is to propose answers for the future.
We should not live in delusion: the victory of the nationalists next year will fundamentally shake the EU and push it into a deep crisis. That would be a complete defeat for fundamental European values. Taking into account this danger, supporters of Europe cannot rely on previous approaches. Recent radical changes in the party systems of many EU countries have caused changes in electoral calculations, so pro-European forces must adapt accordingly.
For my part, I predict that next year's elections will lead to dramatic changes in Europe. Whether it is good or not, the question of Europe has been politicized and must now be resolved. We will see either the renewal of nationalism or the victory of democracy and unity at the EU level. Unfortunately, the pro-European forces cannot hope for any help from abroad. On the contrary, it is the other way around: Europe must carefully guard against foreign interference in its internal affairs, including elections.
In recent years, there has been much talk about whether the EU suffers from a "democracy deficit". The fight for the majority in the European Parliament is actually a huge chance for democracy. Pro-European forces just need to wake up in time to take advantage of that chance. Or the enemies of Europe will do it.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, whose leader he was for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
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