If there is at least one event from which even after a hundred years Europeans shudder, it is the First World War - a true European catastrophe that began in the last days of July 1914. Indeed, after exactly one hundred years, after two world wars and one cold war, this unrest is more pronounced than ever.
Bearing in mind the bloody history of Europe, the states that founded today's European Union call for non-violence, the inviolability of borders and the rule of law. Instead of military confrontation, they chose cooperation, even integration, and economic development instead of power politics. But now the new "EU Europe" has been thrown back in time and faces another challenge due to the return of power politics to its borders and in its immediate vicinity.
In the East, the Kremlin, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, wants to change national borders by force and thus ensure the rebirth of Russia as an imperial world power. In addition, chaos and violence, best seen in Syria, Iraq and Gaza, threaten to engulf the entire Middle East, challenging the territorial integrity of states that largely exist as a result of the post-World War I settlement.
A peaceful, postmodernist Europe will have a hard time coping with the problems brought about by the revival of power politics. The European Union has more than doubled in size since 1989, when communism fell in Central and Eastern Europe, but Europe in the EU era has not yet reached its final, politically integrated form. More importantly, the EU was not designed to solve the problems arising from power politics: the old nation-states of Europe are too small and too weak, and the EU's common foreign and security policy remains underdeveloped.
Nevertheless, many Europeans believe that the EU and the West are obliged not to allow Putin freedom of behavior. The situation in Eastern Ukraine is paying a huge price: the price of peace and order on the entire continent. That's why, for us to understand, the passengers of the Malaysian plane MH-17 shot down over the territory controlled by the rebels - paid with their lives.
The dates of historically significant events are impossible to choose. Thus, the main question regarding the consequences of such events always concerns how quickly their true consequences can be accurately determined. It took an unusually long time for European leaders to realize that all the trust they gave to Putin and the tolerance they showed towards his policy of violence and intimidation only led to the further escalation and spread of the crisis in Ukraine. In fact, it was only after nearly 300 civilians died on MH-17 that the EU was finally ready to impose multilateral economic sanctions on Russia that could have a substantial impact on the Russian economy.
From the point of view of the further development of the common European foreign and security policy, the importance of those EU sanctions should not be underestimated. After the first step (effective sanctions), the second step - the "Energy Alliance", which allows Europe to end its dependence on Russian energy sources - must be terminated as soon as possible.
As for the Middle East, problems concerning Europe's ability to carry out collective action will be even more difficult to overcome. This shows the presence of strong pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian blocs in the EU, which usually block each other. In addition, today's conflicts in the Middle East are much more complex than in the east of Ukraine.
The countries in the region that have suffered the most - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel/Palestine, Egypt and Libya - may soon be joined by Jordan, Yemen and the countries of the Persian Gulf. And the crisis is further deepened by Iran's nuclear program and the competition between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia for regional dominance that is fueling sectarian conflict. A solution (or solutions) to the Middle East torture issue is still a long way off.
Today, only one outcome can be predicted with a high degree of certainty: a further escalation of the conflict that threatens to plunge the entire region into chaos and lead to further violence and a high risk of the conflict spreading. There is, for example, a real danger that parts of the Middle East conflict will be "exported" to Europe. Whether the EU likes it or not, it must face these conflicts because the solution to its internal and external security will probably be prepared as much in the Middle East as in Brussels, as well as in the capitals of the EU states.
Europeans live in a region that is increasingly undefined, so it is a task that calls for a kind of strategic response that no single European country can provide alone. That is why further deepening of integration and activation of dialogue regarding the EU's common foreign policy and security policy are on the agenda.
Unfortunately, one hundred years after modern power politics ignited a war that killed more than ten million of their ancestors, many Europeans in the EU are as casual as ever about the coming storm. We must hope that this will change sooner rather than later: soundness is always better than shakiness.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2014.
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