After US President Donald Trump's recent European tour, culminating in his infamous joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, there can no longer be any doubt that he and his supporters want to overthrow the international order and global trade system led by America.
Yes, of course, Trump and America are not synonymous. He won the 2016 elections, receiving three million votes less than his rival, and his public support ratings never exceeded 50 percent. However, he is the president of the USA and that makes him the most powerful man in the world. His actions, often absurd and contradictory, have serious consequences for the real world, and especially for America's closest partners. During his recent visit to Great Britain, Trump went so far as to call the European Union "the enemy".
By seeking to change virtually everything that defined the West after the end of World War II, Trump has brought the world to a historic turning point. It is not the relations between the USA and the EU, which remain strong, that are called into question, but the dominant position of the West in the world arena. Trump is accelerating changes in the global balance of power that are weakening both America and Europe. As income and wealth shift from the West to the East, China will have the opportunity to increasingly challenge the US's position as the world's leading geopolitical, economic and technological power.
That transition will not be smooth. For Europe, the price cannot be higher. The rebalancing of forces, which has already begun, may determine the fate of democracy, the welfare state, independence and lifestyle in Europe. If Europe does not prepare properly, it will have no choice but to become dependent on either America or China - either Atlanticism or Eurasianism.
Europeans should not count on the existing alliances and rules to provide them with sufficient protection during that period. But we cannot go back to the logic, traditional for the XNUMXth century, of the politics of dictation. It is quite possible that the world is moving towards a situation in which there will be no obvious hegemon and in which the great powers will constantly establish their positions. But now the circumstances are very different than in the "Big Game" era. The escalation of the rivalry between China and America will not suit the Old Continent at all.
For Europeans, the XNUMXth century was shaped by the consequences of the French Revolution and the Industrial Revolution, while the XNUMXth century was defined by two world wars, the Cold War and the emergence of nuclear weapons. At the end of World War II, two non-European powers from both sides of the old European system of states - the USA and the USSR - came to the fore, and Europe turned into just one square on the chessboard.
Until that moment, Europe ruled the world thanks to its technical achievements. But after the end of World War II, its dominance ended. After Europe (and partly Germany) was divided between two new powers, the US foreign policy establishment on the one hand, and the Kremlin on the other hand stifled European sovereignty.
Of course, France and Great Britain, the two victorious European powers, preserved the remnants of sovereignty as permanent members of the UN Security Council (and later as nuclear powers). But against the background of the global balance of power, it was more symbolic than a reflection of their real influence.
And then the Cold War ended and the whole of Europe chose a firm transatlantic orientation. From the point of view of security, Europe remained dependent on the USA. But on the economic and technological front, Europeans have regained their sovereignty. Institutionally, this division of labor is expressed in the form of NATO and the EU. That system has served us well - but now it's under attack from Trump.
Three circumstances in particular make Europe worry about its future. First: Trump continues to question America's compliance with mutual defense obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty. Second: his administration is actively weakening the World Trade Organization and the global trading system, on which Europe's well-being rests to a large extent. And the third: the development of digitization and artificial intelligence now threatens to turn the global technological hierarchy upside down.
Each of these circumstances creates risks for Europe's position in the world. The question now is whether the EU will fully regain its sovereignty and establish itself as a power on the world stage, or whether it will be left behind forever.
The moment of truth has come. There will be no second chance.
Only the EU is capable of returning to Europe the sovereignty that corresponds to the XNUMXst century. If the task is taken over by traditional nation-states, for example Great Britain, France and Germany, it will not be fulfilled. Restoring sovereignty requires not only enormous efforts, but also a united front and, also, a new understanding of the relationship between the EU and the countries that make it up. The European project will continue to contribute to the development of trade and guarantee peace; but now it also has to consolidate common sovereignty.
If the EU succeeds in this task, it will turn out that Trump has inadvertently given it a big gift. History sometimes takes strange paths. The most important thing is to accept it as it is and not hesitate when the moment comes for decisive actions.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, whose leader he was for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
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