Only half a year after being elected for the seventh time as prime minister, Đukanović is in serious trouble securing a majority in parliament. This fact alone represents a great defeat for his party and for him personally. The fact that his cabinet could not survive the trials and growing problems of society for even half a year speaks of his wrong political assessment, which led him to return to the executive power for the seventh time. And we all well remember the reasons for his return - his poltroons and propagandists said that the Chief is returning to establish unity within the DPS, which is being destroyed by the conflicts of numerous factions and clans, to provide the missing foreign investments and introduce the country into NATO.
Therefore, only half a year has passed, and the results on all the mentioned points are devastating for the Prime Minister: DPS is in free fall, it is not known who is working on whom, the charisma and the reign of terror of the Chief, which previously ensured the unity of the party, now serve more for a mockery of numerous currents in and around the DPS. The coalition partner who served Đukanović unquestioningly for a decade and a half is running away from the sinking ship. Krivokapić, who is a master of political survival, is now publicly and more and more often turning his back on his irreplaceable comrade. The state is a shortcut, so he fell out of my sight, ironically says the head of the SDP.
The situation is similar with the prime minister's investors: those from the West are not there because they are waiting for the rule of law to be established, those from the East are now looking for new destinations for large-scale laundering of illegally acquired money because Montenegro is no longer an attractive destination for them due to the increasing presence of European control. Should we add to that that a number of Đukanović's investors, who for years were a significant source of income for both his party and the state budget, are lying in prisons or on the run, painted on one of Interpol's warrants.
The prime minister is in a similar impasse regarding the third big issue: NATO and membership in that important organization has never been further. Now NATO, like the EU, is looking for a rule of law, democratic elections, and media freedom. Now NATO, as well as the EU, sees that with Đukanović it is an impossible mission. That's why they turn to new partners. Hence the precedent with Krivokapić's election to such a prestigious post of chairman of the OSCE PS! A precedent in the sense that a candidate from such a small and internationally irrelevant country could not be elected to that position without the lobby and support of the largest countries in the world. Đukanović is definitely in the past, now the question is how to ensure a peaceful transition of power after such a long period of undemocratic rule.
Djukanović therefore had only one choice to make - whether he would be a constructive partner in the transition process or incur the wrath of his Western allies and friends. And that in the final leads to sanaderization! This is therefore perhaps the most delicate situation in his political career. He had never been so lonely and never without an alternative. Like now. That's why his request to Krivokapić to postpone the session of the parliament seems more like a desperate move, buying time, rather than asking for time to secure the support of one of the opposition parties. Which does not mean that the Prime Minister will not act in several directions in the coming days. On the one hand, he will try again to win the favor of the SDP, which has already rejected him several times on the issue of rebalancing. As it is going quite hard, he will try to do bye pas with someone from the opposition. But there is no better luck for him either. The opposition is aware that throwing a life belt to the sinking prime minister would be tantamount to their political suicide. That's why they also keep the door closed in front of Đukanović.
There is also another possible epilogue - that Đukanović kneels before Krivokapić and gives up his radical proposal, accepting the option that the SDP only supports. Those who know the prime minister better say that it is impossible to expect and that he will not back down in front of the head of the SDP. Then elections remain as the only alternative. On the other hand, the prime minister will use this time for intensive contacts with the West, or, as he would say, he will listen to signals from the biggest centers of power. This may be his last chance to retire from politics as a friend of longtime allies.
All in all, the situation looks pretty lost for Đukanović. And that will be shown very soon, at a postponed or a new session of the parliament. It's just a question of buying time and better positioning before the elections that await us in the fall. Without Đukanović after them. And maybe on them?
Bonus video:
