The framework agreement to end the armed conflict in Colombia recently announced by President Juan Manuel Santos represents a historic shift for his country and all of Latin America. This is also a contribution to diplomatic skills and negotiation skills. The agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known as FARK, came after years of unsuccessful attempts by Colombian governments of all political stripes to reach an agreement with the last and one of the most hated guerrilla movements operating on Latin American soil.
Never before has the FARK – a vast apparatus of terror, mass murder and drug trafficking – agreed to discuss disarmament, political and social reintegration of its fighters, victims' rights, ending drug production and participation in "truth and accountability" commissions investigating crimes committed during the pol century of conflict. But now it is. This significant change shows that the FARK, after years of fighting, has been decimated, as well as the flexibility of Colombian society and, perhaps most importantly, Santos' brilliant regional policy. With the weakening of the so-called Bolivian axis (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia), FARK was left without a friendly regional environment.
As was the case with peace processes in the Middle East and Central America after the end of the Cold War, regional changes created the conditions for the start of the Colombian process. However, in the Middle East and Central America, change was brought about by external actors – the United States and the Soviet Union; in the case of the Colombian process, change came from within.
Before the FARK was engaged in secret negotiations in Cuba, Santos's diplomacy had turned the region's politics from gun-waving to the hard work of establishing cooperation. He turned Venezuela and Ecuador, long a haven for FARK, into friendly neighbors willing to end the old tradition of revolutionary wars. In fact, in perhaps the most impressive diplomatic turn, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez becomes a key pillar of support for the resolution of the Colombian conflict. Most significantly, in June 2011, in the presence of United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Santos signed the Law on Restitution for Victims and Expropriated Land. The law enables compensation for victims of human rights violations during the 60-year conflict, as well as the return of millions of hectares of land seized from peasants. This law puts Colombia on the path to peace, weakening the FARK's calls for land reform to justify its outrageous atrocities.
It cannot be denied that this law is complex and by no means without flaws. However, if implemented as planned, it could bring about a profound social revolution. It also represents a new approach to peace, given that such laws are usually passed only after the end of a conflict. In this case, returning the land to the peasants and providing financial compensation to the victims and those displaced by the conflict, becomes the way to achieve peace. Indeed, Alfonso Cano himself, the former leader of FARK, assessed the law as "essential for the future of reconciliation" and called it "a contribution to a real solution to the conflict."
However, both skeptics and opponents of negotiations have their arguments. It can be seen from previous peace negotiations that FARK showed a tendency to use the negotiations to gain national and international legitimacy without the intention of reaching an agreement. For this reason, Santos may have been tempted to choose to go the Sri Lankan route – a relentless military attack on the rebels at the cost of violating basic human rights and destroying civilian communities.
Instead, Santos opted for the most impractical route. After all, war, both in Colombia and elsewhere, often unites nations while peace divides them.
The consequences of a real end to Colombia's armed conflict could be felt far beyond the country's borders. If Chávez's Venezuela has become a drug state where the regime's followers are drug lords, this would reveal their privileged relationship with the FARK. The consequences would be felt in Mexico, where drug cartels are tearing up the country, as well as in the US, which is the largest consumer in the world. West Africa would also be affected, having become a major transit point for South American drug smuggling to Europe in recent years.
Great difficulties will still be encountered and it does not mean that a final agreement has been announced. However, Santos has a good chance to end, once and for all, the dubious violent revolutions that have delayed Latin America's political and economic modernization for so long.
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