Word is slowly spreading - even in Germany - that the financial crisis could completely destroy the project of European unification, as it exposes, rather mercilessly, the weaknesses of the eurozone and its construction. These weaknesses are more political than financial or economic in nature.
The Maastricht Treaty established monetary union, but political union, a necessary precondition for the success of the common currency, remained only a promise. The euro and the countries that adopted it are now paying the price. The Eurozone now rests on the shaky foundations of a confederation of states that are committed to preserving the monetary union, but also their fiscal independence. In times of crisis, this is not feasible.
At the beginning of the crisis, in 2007 - 2008, the fundamental shortcomings of the Eurozone would have been corrected if Germany had been willing to support Europe's joint response to the crisis. But German officials wanted to maintain national primacy and thus confederate access to Europe.
Throughout history, confederations have never truly functioned because the issue of sovereignty (and thus power and legitimacy) remains unresolved. The United States is an example of this. After gaining independence, the American colonies were loosely united under the Articles of Confederation. However, that project failed financially and economically and the US moved towards full federation.
Today, Europe - or, more precisely, the Eurozone - faces an almost identical situation, the eighth being that the historical conditions for further integration are much more complex and difficult than they were in post-independence America.
Europe has three choices. "Pulling through" as before would only intensify and prolong the crisis. The abolition of the monetary union would mark the end of the European project itself and cause chaos that could not be contained. Finally, Europe could move towards real economic and political integration - a step that today's leaders lack the courage to take because they do not believe they have enough support from the domestic public.
Therefore, there are many indications that a combination of the first and second options will be used. Then, when the European project is on the verge of collapse, perhaps the federalist moment will come. However, the emphasis is on the word “maybe”: a headlong plunge into the abyss could be just as likely.
Europe's passive approach to the crisis has already caused visibly negative consequences. The passivity of elected officials caused public distrust and called the European project into question. Indeed, the crisis is beginning to collapse the very foundations - the Franco-German and transatlantic partnership - of the post-war European order, which provided a period of peace and prosperity unprecedented in the continent's history.
The pressure facing financial markets has reached France and is a danger that will not disappear anytime soon. If France finds itself on its knees and Germany does not support its partner steadfastly and with all available means, the European disaster will be complete. And that could happen soon: France cannot and will not give up on the Mediterranean region, and that is why the "exit fantasies" of rich Europeans from the north (above all Germans) threaten the Franco-German pillar of European peace.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US fiscal crisis and weak economic growth will force it to reduce its global military engagement. Moreover, the US will be increasingly oriented towards the Pacific rather than the Atlantic. For Europeans, with our turbulent eastern and southern neighbors, it represents an additional security challenge for which we are neither materially nor intellectually prepared. Even today, Europe's military weakness is beginning to undermine transatlantic relations.
An additional threat to the transatlantic alliance stems from the emerging new world order. The coming years and decades will be marked by an increasingly aggressive US-China dualism as China becomes stronger and America remains weak. Although this rivalry will have a military component, which can be seen in the example of the large Chinese military build-up, it will primarily manifest itself in terms of economic, political and normative spheres of influence. This is where Southeast Asia and the Pacific will play a central role.
However, China will try to drag Europe into this new global game. Indeed, she had already begun to do so. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's recent visits to crisis-hit European countries, to which he has offered generous loans and aid, make this clear. And the weakness of America and the increasing dependence of Europeans (especially Germans) on exports to the Chinese market, as well as the attractiveness of the Far East as a whole, will develop a new and promising Eurasian perspective as the transatlantic alliance weakens. The illusions of Europeans regarding Asia will no longer be directed towards Russia, which, apart from its natural raw materials, will have nothing to offer. No, this time the temptation comes from China, which understands very well the importance of Europe in its geopolitical competition with the US.
As is the case with Germany in relation to France, Europe must unwaveringly support its transatlantic partner in order not to find itself in grave danger. Two foundations of European peace that has lasted seven decades are cracking. Their repair requires nothing less than to continue, finally, the long process of establishing a strong and united Europe.
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