The long-time regent performs again

Previously, he did in a small way what many are now doing in a big way: being the Fuehrer of a managed democracy in Eastern Europe. Since 1991, Milo Đukanović has been deciding the fate of the Adriatic republic of Montenegro, with 600.000 inhabitants. Then, as Europe's youngest prime minister, he took over the country's helm. And since then, he hasn't let it out of his hands, regardless of the position he held: prime minister, head of state or DPS party leader, which he still is.

All these functions are realistically empty shells, which Đukanović fills with personal power. It is based on the network of connections in the country and abroad, on the patronage system, which reaches even the most remote corner of Montenegro, and on the wealth that the Đukanović family has amassed in almost 30 years. After the parliamentary elections in 2016, Đukanović left the prime minister's chair to his confidant Duško Marković. But now, in the presidential elections, Đukanović wants to triumph in his comeback to the political scene.

Why? The victory in the 2016 elections was very narrow and a warning that the rule of the DPS could come to an end one day. The internal political climate in Montenegro has not calmed down since that day. On the contrary, there are indications that Djukanović's control over his own "system" could slip out of his hands. Relations with Prime Minister Marković have been shaken since the Prime Minister tried to get rid of his mentor. And even in Đukanović's group, disobedience is growing. He became publicly enraged when the municipality of Tivat rejected his deal to write off taxes in the amount of 5,6 million euros to the foreign investor of the luxury resort "Porto Montenegro".

The two-meter-tall, gravitating Đukanović not only almost lost his capacity, but also brutally attacked the "NGO and media" cartel, which, according to him, are the "center of destruction" of the country. His anger is understandable: if subordinate officials no longer implement his deals, the reputation and power of the Đukanović family is also threatened. The war between the two drug cartels, which are shooting at each other and blowing up cars in broad daylight in Kotor and Podgorica, is also inconvenient for him.

All this threatens the Đukanović System, which rests on three pillars: guided democracy, good relations with neighbors and attachment to the West. The ruling party controls state institutions. Together with a compliant judiciary and compliant media, this guarantees eternal electoral victories for the same elite from the beginning of the 1990s. It is true that the elections are free, but they are not fair: there is no stealing or cheating on the basis - it is not even necessary. Because the opposition is marginalized by the media and under siege by the judiciary. The spears of the competition are always thoroughly sharpened in advance.

As the head of the mini-state, Đukanović also had to secure himself well from the outside. He maintains good relations with all his neighbors. In the border dispute with Croatia over the Prevlaka peninsula, Podgorica is restrained and avoids any provocation. Great patience was also shown towards Kosovo, when Pristina refused to sign the border agreement, so Podgorica was even ready to negotiate additionally. Because Đukanović knows that his well-being and the well-being of Montenegro do not depend on some meadows in the mountains on the border with Kosovo. And that good neighborly relations are extremely important for his good reputation in the West. It also behaves in geopolitical positioning, in the game of great powers.

Not early, but timely, in the opinion of the West, Đukanović distanced himself, in 1996, from Milošević's aggressive policy. He pushed through the referendum in 2006, quite controversial, on international legal separation from Serbia, and in 2017, in the heated climate of East-West controversies, and membership in NATO. The deeply divided people were not asked for anything, because refusing membership in NATO would fundamentally threaten Djukanović's political existence.

In 2014, he supported the sanctions against Russia, which - like membership in NATO - naturally had a symbolic character. Thanks to his instinct for power as well as pragmatism, today, together with Serbia, Montenegro is the only country in the Western Balkans that has a clear perspective of joining the EU. But despite that, the negotiating chapters on the rule of law could give him a serious headache.

His sense of business is also legendary. Because of cigarette smuggling from the 1990s, the Italian authorities conducted an investigation against Đukanović for seven full years. The proceedings were suspended in 2009. His family controls Prva banka, which was privatized in 2006, and rehabilitated it with a generous amount of tax money. Djukanovic's property is estimated by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists at 15 million dollars. That sum is in clear disparity with the salary of the president or prime minister of Montenegro, which is somewhere around 1.500 euros per month.

(Neue Zuercher Zeitung / NZZ) Translation: Mirko Vuletić