When the democratic uprising in Tunisia successfully overthrew the old regime, the world reacted with astonishment. Democracy from below in the Arab world?
After the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime in Egypt, the stronghold of the Middle East, astonishment turned into inevitability. The Middle East woke up and began to approach the globalized world of the 21st century. The region (with the exception of Israel and Turkey) has so far more or less missed the epochal process of world modernization.
Whether the democratic awakening of the Arab and Muslim world in general will truly prevail or bring change only at the top of authoritarian regimes, whether it will lead to a stable order or continue with chaos and radicalization remains unclear. One thing, however, is now clear: the era when this vast region slept while others modernized is over.
The popular uprising will, of course, continue. Literally no country in the region will be exempt, although it remains uncertain when and where the next eruption will occur. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia are candidates, and Saudi Arabia is likely to experience the most difficulties.
It would also be wise for Israel to prepare for epochal changes in the region and try to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians and Syria as quickly as possible. Yet it is unlikely that the Israeli government possesses the foresight necessary for such an undertaking.
The problems are almost the same everywhere (except Israel and Turkey): political oppression, economic underdevelopment and agonizing poverty (except in smaller, oil-rich countries), lack of education, high unemployment rate and huge demographic pressures due to a very young and fast-growing population.
These problems have been mentioned, year after year, in the reports of the United Nations Development Program. Moreover, the situation is worsened by the incompetence of authoritarian regimes in the region, which are incapable of offering their youth any option other than repression. Therefore, it was only a matter of time before this powder keg exploded.
The fuses were the new information technologies of the Internet and satellite television, such as Al Jazeera. In fact, the historical irony is that it was not America's hard power - such as that used in Iraq - that helped this democratic revolution, but rather its soft power - Twitter and Facebook - which was largely anathema under George W. Bush and his neoconservative advisers. . Silicon Valley seems to be more powerful than the Pentagon.
These US digital assets have become instruments for the trans-Arab/Iranian youth uprising for freedom and democracy. Although many things are missing in the Middle East, there is no shortage of hopeless young people, and their number will continue to grow in the coming years.
Indeed, regardless of the similarity of the events of Tahrir Square in Cairo to Paris in May 1968 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it would be premature to declare that freedom has prevailed. It will largely depend on how the West will react now, because now it is not just about overthrowing tyrants, but about the deep transformation and modernization of entire societies and economies. It's a huge job.
Moreover, compared to Eastern Europe in 1989, the Middle East in 2011 lacks external structures with a stabilizing effect - such as NATO and the European Union - that could influence domestic reforms by offering the possibility of membership. Efforts for this huge transformation must come from these societies, and that is probably too much to ask.
The transformation of Eastern Europe after 1989 took much longer and cost much more than originally anticipated. There were a lot of people who got lost during this transformation, and the organizers of the democratic revolution were not necessarily the ones who could push democratic and economic development. And there is the experience of the Ukrainian "Orange Revolution" from 2004, which collapsed a few years later due to the alienation, incompetence and corruption of its leaders.
Together, these limitations and analogies suggest that the West, especially Europe, should focus on long-term assistance for democratic and economic development in the reborn countries of the Middle East, but also on partnership with all forces that support the democratization and modernization of their countries. The West cannot, as usual, continue with realpolitik.
These tasks require generosity of both financial and other kinds (opportunities to travel, for example, were crucial to cementing the democratic aspirations of Eastern Europeans after 1989), and their realization requires decades, not years, of persistence. In other words, success will be expensive - very expensive - which will not be the least bit popular during the current economic crisis. But a democracy that does not become a common occurrence is a democracy that is doomed to fail.
Economic aid, the opening of EU and US markets, strategic energy projects, legal and constitutional advice and cooperation between universities are among the resources that the West must provide if it wants to contribute to the success of the democratic awakening of the Middle East.
If this awakening fails, the result will be radicalization across the region. It must not return to the previous status quo. The genie is out of the bottle.
The author is a former German foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005; he was the leader of the German Green Party for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate 1995–2011.
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