The first two decades of the 21st century are beginning to cast a long shadow over the Western world. We have come a long way since the end of the last century, when people everywhere, but especially in Europe, took the "end of history" lightly.
According to this illusory thesis, the victory of the West in the Cold War - the last of the three great wars of the 20th century - gave impetus to the global order for which there are no alternatives. Therefore, it was thought, world history will slowly move towards the universalization of Western-style democracy and market economy. The new century will only be a continuation of the previous one with the extension of the dominance of the triumphant West.
The world is wiser today. The network of alliances and institutions that maintained the dominance of the West proved to be a product of the 20th century and their future is now in doubt. The global order is undergoing fundamental change as the center of gravity shifts from the North Atlantic to the Pacific and East Asia. China is on the threshold - economically, technologically and politically - of becoming a world power and the only challenger to the current hegemon, the United States. At the same time, the US is becoming weary of the role of global leader. It began to retreat under former President Barack Obama, but under Donald Trump has accelerated its retreat in a chaotic and dangerous manner. America's abdication of leadership poses a threat to the very existence of the transatlantic West, which rests on the foundation of common values and political institutions. In the absence of reasonable alternatives, structures collapse. Russia, meanwhile, is confronting the future by looking to its 20th-century past. Like the Soviet Union, it is fully betting on nuclear weapons. However, in the 21st century, one's power will not be decided by one's nuclear arsenal, but by a wider range of technological possibilities based on digitization. Those who are not at the forefront when it comes to AI and Big Data will inexorably become dependent and ultimately controlled by other forces. Data and technological sovereignty, not nuclear warheads, will decide the global distribution of power and wealth in this century. In open societies the same factors will decide the future of democracy.
As for Europe, the Old Continent entered the new century in anything but optimal shape. Living in a comfortable post-historical illusion of eternal peace, the European Union failed to complete the integration project (although it managed to expand eastward). The implicit withdrawal of the US security guarantee under Trump was like a bolt from the blue for Europe.
The same can be said about digital revolutions. The first phase of digitization - consumer-oriented platforms - is led almost entirely by the US and China. There are no competing European firms and platforms, nor are there any European cloud-computing companies that can compete with the giants from Silicon Valley and China.
The most important issue facing the new European Commission is Europe's lack of digital sovereignty. Control over AI, Big Data and related technologies will determine the overall coherence of Europe in the 21st century. But Europeans must decide who will own the data needed to achieve digital sovereignty and under what conditions to govern its collection and use. These questions will decide the fate of democracy in Europe and whether the future of the Old Continent will be one of prosperity or decline. As such, these issues must be resolved at the European level, not individually by member states. Equally important - the answer to these questions must be given now. Europe must get the digital ball rolling or it will run over it. In the years ahead, automotive design and manufacturing, mechanical engineering, medicine, defense, energy, and private households will be disrupted by digital technologies. Data generated from these sectors will mostly be processed through the cloud, which means that controlling the cloud will be key to long-term economic and strategic prospects. To keep its digital sovereignty secure, Europe needs to invest massively in cloud computing capacity and other physical resources that underpin the digital revolution. Europe was far too slow and indecisive in this regard. Now the challenge is to catch up with the US and China, or they will be permanently left behind. Europeans should have no illusions that the private sector will take care of things on its own. Europe's competitive handicap requires a fundamental change in strategy at the highest level. EU institutions will have to lead by setting regulations and together with member states to provide the necessary funding. Securing digital sovereignty requires a much broader effort, including businesses, researchers and politicians. Following the recent 50th anniversary of the first moon landing, there has been much discussion in the media about a potential human flight to Mars. When it comes to Europe, however, space travel can wait. The main priority must be to establish and secure digital sovereignty and to do everything necessary to prevent its decline and protect democracy. For better or for worse, the 21st century has long since begun.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
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