French President Emmanuel Macron is right to worry about the disintegration of the global arms control regime and Russia's growing ties to China. But since Russia and the European Union are divided over key values, there is no reason to think that this relationship can be mended anytime soon.
Although the EU and Russia are part of the same landmass, they have little in common. Russians have yet to actually decide where their country belongs in the world. Most of its territory is in Asia, but more than 70 percent of the population lives west of the Ural Mountains. The Russians have no interest in associating with East Asia or the Islamic South, so the only thing left for them to do is stay alone or turn to Europe.
And it's risky to stay alone. Russia is a nuclear powerhouse, but demographically, economically and technologically it is declining. This country still earns from the export of fossil fuels and other products, which is not enough to maintain the status of a superpower in the XXI century. It is exposed to an increasing risk of becoming China's junior partner. The only alternative, then, is Europe. Both sides are hostages of their histories. Memories of the oppressive rule of the tsars and the Soviets are still fresh in Central and Eastern Europe, especially in Poland and the Baltic states, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's annexation of Crimea and the military campaign in eastern Ukraine have only increased mistrust of Russia across the region.
Russia's relationship with the rest of Europe is also determined by its history. Recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union throughout the 2000s, Russia has adopted a XNUMXth-century mentality since Putin came to power in XNUMX. The Russian elite, harkening back to the imperial period before the Bolshevik Revolution, sees their country as a European great power - even as a hegemon, in in the case of Eastern Europe - which puts it in direct opposition to the European Union.
The reason for the existence of the EU is to overcome the zones of influence in Europe, because this is the only way to prevent a return to the power struggles and catastrophic wars that culminated in the first half of the XNUMXth century. However, Russia is simply too big to be integrated into the European Union (indeed, it is unclear who would integrate whom).
Even so, Russia - or at least its leadership - does not share the values of the European Union. In addition to supporting democracy, judicial independence and the rule of law, the European Union has rejected any revision of borders by force. Although geographical proximity requires Russia and the EU to manage their relationship in a mutually beneficial way, the Kremlin's current war in Ukraine's Donbas region makes this almost impossible.
However, French President Emmanuel Macron has again tried to improve relations between the European Union and Russia, most notably by meeting with Putin ahead of the G7 summit in Biarritz last month. Macron believes that it is not in Europe's interest to push Russia towards China, or to stand by and watch the disintegration of US-Russian arms control agreements. In terms of gun control, American and European interests are not the same, and the current US administration does not care much for Europe or its positions on any issue.
Unclear role of Europe
However, Macron's efforts raise many questions. First of all, it is not obvious what role Europe could play in restoring the global arms control regime. Without the US, Europe cannot offer Russia much in terms of medium-range missiles. She would be stuck in the position of trying to convince two unwilling parties to reach a new agreement. And that doesn't even include China, which has also developed an intermediate-range missile capability.
Europe has something to offer Russia economically. But it is simply impossible to improve economic relations without noticeable progress in the implementation of the Minsk Protocol to end the conflict in Donbass. It is unclear whether Putin is ready for that.
But the real problem between Russia and the European Union is the question of democracy. The biggest fear of Putin and the Russian oligarchs is that the Ukrainian Maidan Revolution of 2014 could be repeated in Moscow's Red Square. The Kremlin does not blame NATO for this possibility, but the European Union. The anti-NATO rhetoric is a tried-and-true propaganda tool that exploits the ingrained fear among many Russians of the Cold War scarecrow. But the real threat in the eyes of Russian oligarchs is the European Union and its promotion of democracy and the rule of law.
The Russian and European systems are essentially incompatible, they represent contradictory values and completely different approaches to foreign and domestic policy. In the 1917th century, Imperial Russia was the leader of the "Holy Alliance", a reactionary shield against the bourgeois revolutions that were sweeping Europe. This dynamic was reversed under Bolshevik rule after XNUMX, when Russia became the cradle of revolution. But under Stalin's rule, it returned to pursuing essentially the same goals as the tsars, especially when it came to crushing independence movements in Central and Eastern Europe.
Putin's regime followed a similar trajectory, retreating to the XNUMXth century, allying with the Orthodox Church and launching attacks on the "decadent West" with tirades against homosexuality and liberalism. The Kremlin's active support for illiberal, nationalist forces in Europe and the US is only one part of this bigger picture.
Although improving relations between the European Union and Russia would be desirable, it will not happen quickly or easily. In the main - issues of Ukraine and democracy, Europe can hardly make any concession.
(Project Syndicate)
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