Macron wants to change the EU - will the Balkans be collateral damage?

No one in the EU even wants to hear about French President Macron's reform proposals. He now raised the manual for the extension process and blocked it. It is risky, but at the same time it is a chance for both the Union and the Balkans

The outgoing president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, assessed the French veto on the opening of EU accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania as a historical mistake. Whether he is right remains to be seen. But even if it is not clear whether this is the end of the EU enlargement process, October 17, 2019 will go down as a turning point in the history of the EU.

President Macron has two arguments against enlargement: one technical and one strategic. Technically, it concerns the rules according to which membership is realized. The French rightly stated that long-term negotiations, during which thematic negotiation chapters are opened, negotiated for many years and at some point closed, did not have a positive impact on the state of democracy and the rule of law among the EU candidates. In countries such as Montenegro and Serbia, the situation even worsened during the negotiations in recent years.

The second point is of a strategic nature. Macron wants a completely different Union and doesn't want to hear any more "let's continue as before". And that's exactly what German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants, so she cold-bloodedly ignores his attempts to achieve European penetration. Since each member state has the right of veto in the enlargement policy, Macron used his. The fact that Macron is alone with that veto does not affect him at all. On the contrary. The European Union should be kicked out of the rut, so that it does not change its course. It's called: disruption tactics.

Macron's vision

And there are not only pragmatic but also principled reasons for Macron to choose the policy of enlargement for his breakthrough. Each club, through the admission rules, defines the composition of its membership. It is precisely these criteria that Macron wants to change: he wants a completely different Union.

What kind? Bulgarian political scientist Dimitar Bechev sees Macron as a legacy of French European politics, which dates back to the 90s. Then, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Eastern Europeans wanted to escape from the Soviet orbit "back to Europe". The French viewed this with not very positive emotions. It was clear to them that this would shift the center of gravity of Europe to the East - to Berlin, the capital of the reunited Germany.

What the then French President Mitterand opposed with the proposal of a Europe of concentric circles. The inner "Sanctum" would be made up of the founding countries of the Union revolving around the Paris-Berlin axis. Eastern Europeans would then gather around that solid core, but in a more relaxed version, primarily bound by economic lines. But something completely different happened. Germany's rediscovery of the satisfaction of being the "power of the center" and the desire of Eastern Europeans to enjoy economic growth and prosperity were stronger. The European Union has accumulated 28 members. The last to enter, in 2013, was Croatia.

Macron simply picked up where Mitterand left off. And he wants the core of Europe, the Eurozone, which must be institutionally deepened even more. And around that core, as a second circle, full members in the common market. The third circle would finally consist of countries with the right to easy association, because they have similar interests and economic freedoms.

The fact that Great Britain is leaving the EU comes as a matter of course to Macron. Britain has always pursued a diametrically opposed policy to the French, always skeptical of expansion. It has consistently supported growth in breadth, which of course prevents deepening and centralization.

Opponent called Viktor Orban

The British are no longer Macron's opponent. Viktor Orban now represents an extremely counter-position in relation to him. If Budapest were to ask, the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs recently explained, Serbia would already be a member of the EU tomorrow. Hungary is trying with all its might to get the position of commissioner for enlargement in the new EC. Orban's first was rejected by the European Parliament due to questionable positions towards the rule of law and the separation of powers. But Orbán is determined to give it another try. In Baku in mid-October, he promised his opponents that Azerbaijan will always have an open door in Brussels, if Hungary gets this commissioner post.

The unconditionality with which Orban wants to open the gates of the EU to certain countries has its reasons. The Hungarian sees in authoritarian leading figures such as the Serb Aleksandar Vučić, the Albanian Edi Rama or the Montenegrin Milo Đukanović as willing disciples who turn his vision of "illiberal democracy" into reality. Those listed - with or without accession negotiations - stifled the free media, undermined the constitutional separation of powers, and periodically allowed their peoples to amine their power at the ballot box. If they enter the EU, the students will become allies with whom Orbán can forge coalitions.

Macron's NO, therefore, does not refer to the accession process as such, but is directed against Orbán. But where is the Western Balkans in this strategy? The French always stressed that the countries of the Balkans have their place in a common Europe. And how to take it? Some kind of way will probably be opened for them, Macron told the disappointed representatives of North Macedonia and Albania non-committally. Which raises suspicions that Macron's alternative to accession talks is just another stalling tactic.

The Western Balkans as a training ground for many

Which would be risky. The influence of the EU on its own "inner courtyard" (the Western Balkans is surrounded by EU member states) has weakened greatly in recent years. And that's precisely because the prospects for membership for these countries were increasingly dim. Washington, which had completely withdrawn from the region, has recently been present again: with even two special envoys. How does America react to the fact that through this open wound of the EU, Russia, China and Turkey are intensifying their engagement. The region has no strategic priority for any of these countries. But it is interesting to them as a training ground for disturbances (Moscow), unregulated investments (Beijing) and Islamic "soft power" (Ankara).

Along with that come other risks. The stability of the Western Balkans, in the long run, can only be realized under the roof of the EU. Membership would have the effect that the borders between these countries would be both firm and passable. Which would make nationalist unifying projects like Greater Albania or Greater Serbia unattractive, because economic and cultural ties with "relatives" on the other side of the border would be possible without any problems, without anyone questioning the borders as such. But if these countries remain outside the EU alone, the voices of those who preach that a nation can only live within the borders of a single state will become stronger. Those voices are already loud.

And that means Macron has to offer something. NO, by itself, it is not enough. There is no shortage of attractive ideas. The European Think Tank ESI proposes that 6 countries of the Western Balkans be allowed to enter the European Economic Area (EWR), i.e. into the common market. Which would not rule out later EU membership, but would not guarantee it either. Membership in the EWR in itself requires a lot, especially adjustments and reforms in law and economics, which, ESI demands, should be clearly prescribed and regularly controlled. Progress should be rewarded with loans and investments, which, in case of setbacks, should be immediately frozen.

This would make the process more dynamic and transparent, and reversible in case of errors. It goes without saying that Montenegro and Serbia would bring the results of the previous accession negotiations with the EU into the new negotiations regarding EWR membership. And this would lead to healthy competition between these two countries. A side effect would be that Moscow's trade offers in the form of membership in the Eurasian Union or Chinese infrastructure loans would still lose their attractiveness.

Don't waste time

But these are all still unfinished ideas and sketches. Which, of course, are welcome and which must now be discussed. Europe must not waste any more time in the Balkans. Macron's brutal NO - and it is to his credit - exposed the foils behind which the relations between the EU and the countries of the Western Balkans were hidden for years. Now is the time for a new beginning. Paris, on écoute!

(Neue Zuercher Zeitung / NZZ)

Translation: Mirko VULETIĆ