There are two types of crises: those for which we could not prepare, because no one could foresee them, and those for which we should have been prepared, because they were announced. COVID-19 clearly falls into the second category, regardless of what President Donald Trump says about it in attempts to avoid responsibility for the unfolding disaster. It is true that it is a new type of virus and that no one could predict the exact date of the outbreak of the epidemic, but it cannot be denied that experts have been saying for a long time that the outbreak of such a pandemic is a matter of time.
SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola and other epidemics were warning enough. The World Health Organization revised and expanded the global framework for responding to infectious disease outbreaks 15 years ago in an attempt to address the shortcomings identified during the 2003 SARS outbreak. years. In 2016, the World Bank established a program of financial assistance for poor countries in the event of a pandemic known as the Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility. Just months before COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration received a report warning of the high likelihood of another pandemic similar to the one in 1918. which killed around 50 million people worldwide. Like climate change and its consequences, the pandemic crisis has been brewing for a long time. The reaction in the United States was catastrophic. For weeks, Trump refused to face the gravity of the situation. When the number of infected and hospitalized people began to rise, it became clear that the country did not have enough tests, masks, respirators and other necessary medical supplies. The United States did not request the tests provided by the World Health Organization, nor did it provide its own reliable tests in time. Trump has decided not to use the president's authority to requisition medical supplies from private manufacturers, which has left hospitals and local governments bidding against each other in an attempt to get the supplies they need. The delay in mass testing and the introduction of measures to limit movement cost Europe dearly, especially Italy, Spain, France and Britain. Some of the countries in East Asia fared better. South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong appear to have successfully brought the outbreak under control by combining mass testing, contact tracing and strict quarantine. Differences in reactions to the crisis are noticeable even within the borders of the same country. The province of Veneto in northern Italy fared significantly better than neighboring Lombardy, mostly thanks to testing and the earlier introduction of restricted movement. Kentucky and Tennessee, two neighboring states in the US, reported their first cases just one day apart. At the end of March, Kentucky had only one-quarter of the total number of cases recorded in Tennessee, as local government responded more quickly by declaring a state of emergency and closing public spaces. The crisis generally unfolded as could be expected based on the accepted style of management in the given country. Trump's deadly incompetence, clumsiness and self-promotion in managing the crisis surprised no one. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, equally vain and devious, continues to downplay the danger, as expected. Also, it is not surprising that the countries whose administrations still enjoy considerable trust of citizens - South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan - reacted the fastest and most effectively. China's response was typically Chinese: censoring information about the spread of the virus, a high degree of social control, and mobilizing vast resources the moment they realized what was happening. In Turkmenistan, the use of the word "corona virus" is prohibited, and protective masks are also prohibited in public places. Viktor Orbán used the crisis to consolidate absolute power in Hungary by dissolving the parliament and giving himself all the powers to rule by decree, without time limits. It could be said that the crisis only emphasized and brought to the fore the prevailing features of political life. It's as if during the crisis countries turned into exaggerated versions of what they were before the pandemic started. Hence it follows that this crisis may not be the epochal turning point in the history of global politics and economics as many expect. Instead of taking the world on a new and significantly different path, it seems more likely that it will only deepen and reinforce already existing trends. Large earthquakes such as this themselves produce "confirmation effects": thus increasing the likelihood that we recognize in the disaster caused by COVID-19 a confirmation of our own attitudes and views. Perhaps also the beginning of some future economic and political order, the one we have been longing for for a long time. People who advocate for a more prominent role of the state and more investment in public goods believe that the course of the crisis confirms their views. Those who are skeptical of all state interventions and notice only the incompetence of the state administration also believe that the crisis gives them the right. Proponents of global governance argue that a more robust international health care regime could have reduced the costs of the pandemic. Those in favor of strengthening the role of the nation state enumerate the failures of the World Health Organization in responding to the coming crisis (for example, taking Chinese data at face value, opposing measures to restrict movement and recommending against the use of protective masks). In short, COVID-19 will most likely not change - much less reverse - the tendencies that were noticeable before the crisis. The slow death of neoliberalism will continue. Populist autocrats will be even more authoritarian. Hyperglobalization will continue to recede, while nation-states will continue to strengthen and take over policymaking. The United States and China will continue to move on trajectories that lead them to the point of collision. The author is a professor of international political economy at Harvard University (Project Syndicate; Peščanik.net; translation: Đ. TOMIC)
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