The first year of Trump's term brought many scandals, and even more inflammatory tweets, but American foreign policy has not fundamentally changed. The big question is whether in 2018 the US, faced with Trump's intention to rethink things, will maintain the continuity of foreign policy
During the first year of Donald Trump's mandate, the damage caused by his administration's foreign policy turned out to be much less than everyone expected.
Despite his loud rhetoric and tweets calling North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un "Rocket Man", the new US president has not started any wars, either on the Korean Peninsula or in the South China Sea. Also, there was no conflict with Taiwan after Trump questioned the old US "one China" policy.
In reality, instead of conflict with China, Trump seems to have established a close relationship with its President Xi Jinping. China's leaders couldn't believe their luck when one of Trump's first official moves was to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement - which was supposed to exclude China and strengthen Western trade rules in the Asia-Pacific region. Trump seemed to want to make China great again, not America.
Additionally, Trump did not start a trade war by imposing high tariffs on imports from major US trading partners such as China, Germany and Japan. Regardless of his refusal to review the Iran nuclear deal, the deal remains in place. And the long-term consequences of his unilateral decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel are yet to be seen.
Trump's hopes for closer cooperation with Russia, to the detriment of American allies, were also not justified and the official position of the US in the Ukrainian conflict has not changed. This is, without any doubt, related to the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to interfere in the 2016 presidential elections in the USA, which made it impossible for Trump to reorient American policy towards Russia without causing an internal political storm.
Similarly, despite being deemed "obsolete" by Trump, NATO has actually gained strength and legitimacy over the past year thanks to the rise of Russia's military power and the continuation of the war in Eastern Ukraine. There is no doubt that Europeans have to worry more about their defense than was the case before. But nothing would have changed there even if Hillary Clinton was in the position of US president (although her messages were formulated with more friendly terms).
In general, those from the White House "who grew up in uniform" - Secretary of Defense James Mattis, National Security Advisor HR McMaster and Chief of Staff John Kelly - have provided continuity in US foreign policy. And it seems to be the same with the economy and trade policy.
Does this mean the world can breathe a sigh of relief? Of course not. There is still a big question mark over US foreign policy - in the form of Trump himself. It is absolutely unclear what the president wants, what he really knows, and what his advisers are telling him or not. A consistent foreign policy cannot withstand Trump's mood swings and spontaneous decisions.
Worse, the downsizing of the State Department administration has weakened, almost to a critical level, the institutional base for foreign policy. Even the recently published "National Security Strategy" of the White House does not raise any more hope. Unlike the official American position since September 11, 2001, the US will now consider its global rivalry with China and Russia as the main threat to national security and peace in the entire world, and not terrorism by non-state actors.
However, when we look back at 2017, we get the impression that, although US foreign policy has generally remained the same, it has also become completely unpredictable. Thus, 2018 is likely to be a year of substantially increased risks, especially considering the tensions in the Persian Gulf, the war in Syria, the hegemonic struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the nuclear balancing on the border of war on the Korean Peninsula.
On the Korean Peninsula and in the Persian Gulf, the main goal must be to prevent a nuclear conflict between dictatorships, as this threatens regional stability and the prevailing balance of power. According to experts, the risk of a military confrontation with North Korea or Iran should not be ignored.
In the case of North Korea, which is effectively working on an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the continental United States, such a conflict could also entail the use of nuclear weapons. Nothing in that situation inspires optimism, especially now that at the head of the US is a president whom few can trust and whose policies must emerge from the labyrinth of his tweets.
All in all, the Trump factor could become the most important source of uncertainty in international politics this year. The US is, as before, the most important superpower in the world and plays an irreplaceable role in preserving global rules. If America's policy is difficult to predict and if Trump's behavior undermines the credibility of the US government, the international order will become vulnerable to massive upheavals.
As the US approaches its midterm elections in November, it will be important to address how domestic political developments may affect the country's foreign policy. If Republicans lose their majorities in one or both houses of Congress, and if Robert Mueller, the special counsel in the Russia investigation, presents his findings around the same time, then Trump will feel that his power is dramatically threatened.
Thus, the crucial question for 2018 is - what will Trump do if he is threatened at home at the same time as the foreign policy crisis begins. Will the "adults in the house" be able to cope with their responsibilities? One does not have to be a prophet to view the coming months with skepticism and concern.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, whose leader he was for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
Bonus video:
