To the remark that the EU is much more critical when it comes to the election conditions in Serbia than it is the case with Montenegro, one diplomat said in an informal conversation - "yes, but while in Serbia it is certain that Vučić will win, in Montenegro there is certain uncertainty".
Parliamentary elections in Montenegro, on August 30, are quite atypical compared to most previous election cycles.
That's how we waited for the DPS to call out and accuse Miloš Bešić and CEDEM because the published results of the public opinion poll are not in his favor.
Let's go in order.
Milo Đukanović's intention to divide the electorate along the lines of the referendum by adopting the Law on Freedom of Religion succeeded, but the protests - dried up by the earthly will of the church leaders - led to the fact that the DPS is now calculating how much damage the boss caused them with messages about the establishment of a party church.
It is speculated that public opinion surveys show that about a third of DPS voters resent the rhetorical confrontation with the SPC in Montenegro, while it is questionable how about 30.000 permanent voters of the ruling party will vote.
Vote for a party that wants to "seize the holy places", stay at home or, God forbid, vote for the opposition - these are the great pains of DPS-SPC faithful voters.
So far, however, it has been shown that earthly reasons compared to spiritual ones were decisive for the vast majority of DPS voters.
Second, the corona virus epidemic makes it impossible to hold large party gatherings. Fans of DPS, but also those who are impressed by the mass, and such are always a few percent in the total electorate, will not be able to be attracted by the atmosphere - as from the final meeting of DPS in the elections of October 2016, with a live broadcast on Pink Television.
Thirdly, the question is how many voters from the Diaspora will be able to count on DPS due to the different attitude of the countries from which they come to traveling and staying in Montenegro.
And finally, the question is how many free mandates from, as they say, traditional partners DPS can count on. The appearance of another Croatian national party may mean that they do not receive any mandate from that body. Since the emergence of two Albanian coalitions, they can win two instead of the previous one, but then it is questionable whether BS can reach the third mandate, which it almost lost in the last elections. Or everything in reverse order.
The loser of these elections in advance is SD. From the beginning of the campaign, they have been driving in the opposite direction, with an unclear election message, serious problems with the Plav committee and slaps by Prime Minister Duško Marković, such as the message that he is not interested in the Airport in Tivat that someone's party or personal interests will be affected.
DPS probably won't trample on a loyal partner until below the census, because in the final tally he may need it, and with a party whose leaders too often go to the Prosecutor's Office, even for Montenegrin circumstances, it is easy to conclude post-election arrangements.
On the other hand, the actualization of identity issues resurrected the Democratic Front as expected, which again became the strongest opposition group.
However, the question is how the campaign of the DF coalition with prof. will look in the next two weeks. Zdravko Krivokapić at the helm, who, however, is a bad copy of prof. Miodrag Lekić from 2012 and whether the simple addition of individual pro-Serbian dwarf parties will have a synergetic effect.
Democrats, as if nothing has changed compared to 2014 or 2016, are following the beaten path - the terrain and the unusual campaign.
While for some the campaign "Peace is our nation" seems like a choice for Miss Zete, sandwich makers and journalists - propagandists of the regime are making serious efforts to discredit her.
SDP and URA were seen as brides for marriage. It remains to be seen how the URA, which is proud of its strength, will ultimately fare in the electorate, when Đukanović and the DPS intensively set out to graft the label of a Trojan horse on that structure in the Pro-Montenegro bloc. The regime's media have already laid the groundwork for such stuff.
It is a similar unknown how the SDP, which is already recognized by the public as someone who is returning home, will pass in the arms of the DPS.
The electorate in Montenegro has long been cemented, with minor fluctuations.
The uncertainty amounts to one to two mandates, unless some miracle happens in such an atypical election atmosphere.
With what the opportunistic and greedy top of the DPS has done to the economy of Montenegro and the prevailing sense of injustice in society, but also with such intelligence and awareness in the opposition, it seems that only one thing is certain - these elections will not solve anything.
Uncertainty is yet to come after August 30.
The corona virus epidemic is dangerous for societies with chronic diseases - unsustainably structured economy, huge public debt, cumbersome administration, incompetent idiots at the head of institutions, endemic corruption...
The new government, if it does not have a convincing majority, can hardly survive for long.
Bonus video:
